Development and validation of a nomogram to predict liver metastasis for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after radical resection

Impact of Metastatic Pattern on Survival Following Pancreatectomy for Cancer

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

The incidence of pancreatic cancer is increasing, and up to 55% of patients present with metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis. Many patients also develop metastatic disease following surgical resection. The impact of metastatic patterns on outcomes has not been described. A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated at a tertiary care center from 2012 to 2023. Patients who presented with metastatic disease or developed metastatic disease during their treatment course were identified. Univariate analysis was performed to identify factors associated with specific metastatic patterns. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated for metastatic sites and stratified by treatment.

RESULTS

Of the 330 patients identified, 192 (58.2%) presented with locoregional disease and underwent curative intent surgery before developing metastases, and 138 (41.8%) presented initially with metastatic disease. Median overall survival (OS) with metastases for all patients was 6 months. For patients who underwent curative intent surgery, OS was significantly worse for those who developed peritoneal metastasis compared to patients who developed other sites of metastases (median OS 5.4 vs. 9.2 months, p = 0.0005).

CONCLUSION

The development of peritoneal metastases after surgery for pancreatic cancer is associated with worse OS compared to other sites of metastatic disease.

Development and validation of a model based on preoperative dual-layer detector spectral computed tomography 3D VOI-based quantitative parameters to predict high Ki-67 proliferation index in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a model integrating dual-layer detector spectral computed tomography (DLCT) three-dimensional (3D) volume of interest (VOI)-based quantitative parameters and clinical features for predicting Ki-67 proliferation index (PI) in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 162 patients with histopathologically confirmed PDAC who underwent DLCT examination were included and allocated to the training (114) and validation (48) sets. 3D VOI-iodine concentration (IC), 3D VOI-slope of the spectral attenuation curves, and 3D VOI-effective atomic number were obtained from the portal venous phase. The significant clinical features and DLCT quantitative parameters were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. The discrimination capability and clinical applicability of the clinical, DLCT, and DLCT-clinical models were quantified by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), respectively. The optimal model was then used to develop a nomogram, with the goodness-of-fit evaluated through the calibration curve.

RESULTS

The DLCT-clinical model demonstrated superior predictive capability and a satisfactory net benefit for Ki-67 PI in PDAC compared to the clinical and DLCT models. The DLCT-clinical model integrating 3D VOI-IC and CA125 showed area under the ROC curves of 0.939 (95% CI, 0.895-0.982) and 0.915 (95% CI, 0.834-0.996) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The nomogram derived from the DLCT-clinical model exhibited favorable calibration, as depicted by the calibration curve.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed model based on DLCT 3D VOI-IC and CA125 is a non-invasive and effective preoperative prediction tool demonstrating favorable predictive performance for Ki-67 PI in PDAC.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The dual-layer detector spectral computed tomography-clinical model could help predict high Ki-67 PI in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients, which may help clinicians provide appropriate and individualized treatments.

KEY POINTS

Dual-layer detector spectral CT (DLCT) could predict Ki-67 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The DLCT-clinical model improved the differential diagnosis of Ki-67. The nomogram showed satisfactory calibration and net benefit for discriminating Ki-67.

The CA125 level postoperative change rule and its prognostic significance in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

The relationship between postoperative CA125 level changes and early recurrence after curative resection of resectable PDAC is still unclear.

METHODS

The electronic medical records and follow-up data of patients with resectable pancreatic cancer were evaluated. Dynamic CA125 detection was used to identify the rules for postoperative CA125 level change and its prognostic value in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

The study included a total of 118 patients with resectable pancreatic cancer who underwent curative resection. Early postoperative CA125 levels were significantly higher than those before surgery (P < 0.05). It decreased gradually in the group without early recurrence (P < 0.05) but not in the early recurrence group (P>0.05). There was no correlation between early postoperative CA125 levels and early recurrence (P > 0.05). CA125 levels three months after surgery were associated with an increased risk of early recurrence (P = 0.038, 95% CI (1.001-1.025)). The cutoff CA125 level at 3 months after surgery for predicting early recurrence was 22.035. Patients with CA125 levels < 22.035 three months postoperatively had similar DFS and OS, regardless of whether the value was exceeded in the early postoperative period, but these values were significantly better than those of patients with CA125 levels > 22.035 at 3 months postoperatively (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with different prognoses have different patterns of CA125 level changes. Elevations in CA125 levels > 3 months postoperatively, rather than early postoperative elevation, were associated with a poor prognosis.