Prognostic Nomogram Based on the Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for T1-4N0-1M0 Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors After Surgery

Development and validation of lymph node ratio-based nomograms for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma after surgery

Background

The prediction models for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma (PDA) are deficient. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in PDA patients and to establish and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for PDAs after surgical resection.

Methods

We extracted the demographics and clinicopathological information of PDA patients between 2004 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. After screening cases, we randomly divided the enrolled patients into training and validation groups. X-tile software was used to obtain the best cut-off value for the LNR. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used in the training group to screen out significant variables to develop nomograms. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, four risk groups were created based on quartiles of the model scores.

Results

A total of 978 patients were included in this study. The best cut-off value for the LNR was 0.47. LNR was a negative predictive factor for both OS and CSS. Age, sex, grade, chemotherapy and LNR were used to construct the OS nomogram, while age, grade, chemotherapy, the number of lymph nodes removed and LNR were incorporated into the CSS nomogram. The C-index, calibration curves and AUC of the training and validation sets revealed their good predictability. DCA showed that the predictive value of the nomograms was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). In addition, risk stratification demonstrated that patients with higher risk correlated with poor survival.

Conclusions

The LNR was an adverse prognostic determinant for PDAs. The nomograms provided an accurate and applicable tool to evaluate the prognosis of PDA patients after surgery.

Nomogram-Based Prediction of Overall and Disease-Specific Survival in Patients With Postoperative Major Salivary Gland Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background : The major salivary gland squamous cell carcinoma is a rare head and neck tumor, often accompanied by lymph node metastasis. Even if the patient undergoes surgery, the prognosis remains unsatisfactory. To explore the prognostic factors of postoperative major salivary gland squamous cell carcinoma to establish a prognostic risk stratification model to guide clinical practice. Methods: Patients’ information was retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2004 to 2018. Optimal cutoff points were determined using X-tile software, and overall survival and disease-specific survival were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Independent prognostic factors affecting the overall survival and disease-specific survival were identified by multivariate analysis, and corresponding 2 nomogram models were constructed. The discriminative ability and calibration of nomograms were evaluated by the Concordance index, area under curves, and calibration plots. Results: A total of 815 patients with postoperative major salivary gland squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. The cutoff values for the number of lymph nodes were 2, and the cutoff values for the lymph node ratio were 0.11 and 0.5, respectively. Age, T stage, tumor size, lymph nodes, lymph node ratio, and radiotherapy were prognostic factors for overall survival and disease-specific survival. Nomograms for disease-specific survival and overall survival were established and showed favorable performance with a higher Concordance index and area under curves than that of the tumor–node–metastasis stage and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results stage. The calibration plots of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival also exhibited good consistency. What's more, patients were divided into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups according to the scores calculated by the models. The overall survival and disease-specific survival of patients in the high-risk group were significantly worse than those in the moderate- and low-risk group. Conclusions: Our nomogram integrated clinicopathological features and treatment modality to demonstrate excellent performance in risk stratification and prediction of survival outcomes in patients with major salivary gland squamous cell carcinoma after surgery, with important clinical value.