Identifying cancer tissue-of-origin by a novel machine learning method based on expression quantitative trait loci

Can Machine Learning Overcome the 95% Failure Rate and Reality that Only 30% of Approved Cancer Drugs Meaningfully Extend Patient Survival?

Despite implementing hundreds of strategies, cancer drug development suffers from a 95% failure rate over 30 years, with only 30% of approved cancer drugs extending patient survival beyond 2.5 months. Adding more criteria without eliminating nonessential ones is impractical and may fall into the "survivorship bias" trap. Machine learning (ML) models may enhance efficiency by saving time and cost. Yet, they may not improve success rate without identifying the root causes of failure. We propose a "STAR-guided ML system" (structure-tissue/cell selectivity-activity relationship) to enhance success rate and efficiency by addressing three overlooked interdependent factors: potency/specificity to the on/off-targets determining efficacy in tumors at clinical doses, on/off-target-driven tissue/cell selectivity influencing adverse effects in the normal organs at clinical doses, and optimal clinical doses balancing efficacy/safety as determined by potency/specificity and tissue/cell selectivity. STAR-guided ML models can directly predict clinical dose/efficacy/safety from five features to design/select the best drugs, enhancing success and efficiency of cancer drug development.

Seeing the primary tumor because of all the trees: Cancer type prediction on low-dimensional data

The Cancer of Unknown Primary (CUP) syndrome is characterized by identifiable metastases while the primary tumor remains hidden. In recent years, various data-driven approaches have been suggested to predict the location of the primary tumor (LOP) in CUP patients promising improved diagnosis and outcome. These LOP prediction approaches use high-dimensional input data like images or genetic data. However, leveraging such data is challenging, resource-intensive and therefore a potential translational barrier. Instead of using high-dimensional data, we analyzed the LOP prediction performance of low-dimensional data from routine medical care. With our findings, we show that such low-dimensional routine clinical information suffices as input data for tree-based LOP prediction models. The best model reached a mean Accuracy of 94% and a mean Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) score of 0.92 in 10-fold nested cross-validation (NCV) when distinguishing four types of cancer. When considering eight types of cancer, this model achieved a mean Accuracy of 85% and a mean MCC score of 0.81. This is comparable to the performance achieved by approaches using high-dimensional input data. Additionally, the distribution pattern of metastases appears to be important information in predicting the LOP.

New techniques to identify the tissue of origin for cancer of unknown primary in the era of precision medicine: progress and challenges

Despite a standardized diagnostic examination, cancer of unknown primary (CUP) is a rare metastatic malignancy with an unidentified tissue of origin (TOO). Patients diagnosed with CUP are typically treated with empiric chemotherapy, although their prognosis is worse than those with metastatic cancer of a known origin. TOO identification of CUP has been employed in precision medicine, and subsequent site-specific therapy is clinically helpful. For example, molecular profiling, including genomic profiling, gene expression profiling, epigenetics and proteins, has facilitated TOO identification. Moreover, machine learning has improved identification accuracy, and non-invasive methods, such as liquid biopsy and image omics, are gaining momentum. However, the heterogeneity in prediction accuracy, sample requirements and technical fundamentals among the various techniques is noteworthy. Accordingly, we systematically reviewed the development and limitations of novel TOO identification methods, compared their pros and cons and assessed their potential clinical usefulness. Our study may help patients shift from empirical to customized care and improve their prognoses.