An improved nomogram including elastography for the prediction of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 sentinel lymph node metastases

Machine Learning Radiomics-Based Prediction of Non-sentinel Lymph Node Metastasis in Chinese Breast Cancer Patients with 1-2 Positive Sentinel Lymph Nodes: A Multicenter Study

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to construct a machine learning radiomics-based model using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) images to evaluate non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in Chinese breast cancer (BC) patients who underwent total mastectomy (TM) and had 1-2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 494 patients were retrospectively enrolled from two hospitals, and were divided into the training (n = 286), internal validation (n = 122), and external validation (n = 86) cohorts. Features were extracted from DCE-MRI images for each patient and screened. Six ML classifies were trained and the best classifier was evaluated to calculate radiomics (Rad)-scores. A combined model was developed based on Rad-scores and clinical risk factors, then the calibration, discrimination, reclassification, and clinical usefulness were evaluated.

RESULTS

14 radiomics features were ultimately selected. The random forest (RF) classifier showed the best performance, with the highest average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.833 in the validation cohorts. The combined model incorporating RF-based Rad-scores, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, and proportion of positive SLNs resulted in the best discrimination ability, with AUCs of 0.903, 0.890, and 0.836 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the combined model significantly improved the classification accuracy and clinical benefit for NSLN metastasis prediction.

CONCLUSION

A RF-based combined model using DCE-MRI images exhibited a promising performance for predicting NSLN metastasis in Chinese BC patients who underwent TM and had 1-2 positive SLNs, thereby aiding in individualized clinical treatment decisions.

A new prediction nomogram of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in cT1-2 breast cancer patients with positive sentinel lymph nodes

We aimed to analyze the risk factors and construct a new nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis for cT1-2 breast cancer patients with positivity after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). A total of 830 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery between 2016 and 2021 at multi-center were included in the retrospective analysis. Patients were divided into training (n = 410), internal validation (n = 298), and external validation cohorts (n = 122) based on periods and centers. A nomogram-based prediction model for the risk of NSLN metastasis was constructed by incorporating independent predictors of NSLN metastasis identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort and then validated by validation cohorts. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the number of positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) (P < 0.001), the proportion of positive SLNs (P = 0.029), lymph-vascular invasion (P = 0.029), perineural invasion (P = 0.023), and estrogen receptor (ER) status (P = 0.034) were independent risk factors for NSLN metastasis. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) value of this model was 0.730 (95% CI 0.676-0.785) for the training, 0.701 (95% CI 0.630-0.773) for internal validation, and 0.813 (95% CI 0.734-0.891) for external validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis also showed that the model could be effectively applied in clinical practice. The proposed nomogram estimated the likelihood of positive NSLNs and assisted the surgeon in deciding whether to perform further axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) and avoid non-essential ALND as well as postoperative complications.