The Early Awareness and Alert System in Sweden: History and Current Status

Knowledge management tools and mechanisms for evidence-informed decision-making in the WHO European Region: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Knowledge management (KM) emerged as a strategy to promote evidence-informed decision-making. This scoping review aims to map existing KM tools and mechanisms used to promote evidence-informed health decision-making in the WHO European Region and identify knowledge gaps.

METHODS

Following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidance for conducting scoping reviews, we searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, and Open Grey. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the general characteristics of the included papers and conducted narrative analysis of the included studies and categorized studies according to KM type and phase.

RESULTS

Out of 9541 citations identified, we included 141 studies. The KM tools mostly assessed are evidence networks, surveillance tools, observatories, data platforms and registries, with most examining KM tools in high-income countries of the WHO European region. Findings suggest that KM tools can identify health problems, inform health planning and resource allocation, increase the use of evidence by policymakers and stimulate policy discussion.

CONCLUSION

Policymakers and funding agencies are called to support capacity-building activities, and future studies to strengthen KM in the WHO European region particularly in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. An updated over-arching strategy to coordinate KM activities in the WHO European region will be useful in these efforts.

Trends in the utilization of medicines sold in the private sector post- registration in South Africa and the implications for similar countries

BACKGROUND

Regulatory authorities register medicines for patients to access them within a reasonable period of time. There is a paucity of available data regarding the extent to which registered medicines reach the public after market authorisation is granted by the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA). This is important since time spent by SAHPRA assessing medicines that are subsequently not launched onto the South African market means time wasted, which could be spent on assessing new medicines that address an unmet need in the country. Consequently, we initially analysed the time taken for registered medicines to reach patients and the relationship between medicines registered at SAHPRA and those subsequently dispensed in private pharmacies. The extent of registration of multiple sourced versus new patented medicines was also explored.

METHODS

A retrospective, descriptive and quantitative investigation was conducted for medicines registered between 2014 and 2019. Registered and dispensed medicines were compared to establish accessibility post registration. Data sources included SAHPRA and IQVIA datasets. Microsoft Excel and SAS were used for data storage, analysis, and computation of descriptive statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Of (N = 2175) registered medicines, only 358 (16.5%; 95% CI 15.0%-18.1%) were dispensed to patients, and out of 1735 medicines registered between 2015 and 2019, only 57 (3.3%; 95% CI 2.5%-4.2%) were dispensed during the study period. Medicines acting on the central nervous system were registered and dispensed the most at 21.0% and 18.0%, respectively, whereas antineoplastic and immunomodulation agents were registered and dispensed only 11% and 5%, respectively. A concern was that only 13.0% of registered medicines were originators, with most either as generics, including branded generics, or pseudo-generics.

CONCLUSION

Regulatory measures should be implemented to ensure increased medicine access post-registration for new originators, especially for priority disease areas that benefit patients. Mental health diseases and improved access to oncology medicines require special attention and further investigation in South Africa.

Adoption of new therapies in the treatment of Hepatitis: a verification of the accuracy of budget impact analysis to guide investment decisions

OBJECTIVES

While there are good Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) guidelines, studies still register potential bias. To do this, we compared the results between theoretical and real-world evidence (RWE) expenditures for medicines for Hepatitis C: boceprevir (BOC) and telaprevir (TVR). While both are not currently recommended in treatment guidelines following recent developments, this is an emblematic case because for 4 years these medicines consumed considerable resources.

METHODS

Theoretical results and RWE expenditures were compared regarding the incorporation of BOC and TVR in 2013-2014 into the Brazilian Public Health System. Theoretical values were extracted from Commission for Technology Incorporation Report and RWE expenditures were extracted from the administrative data records using deterministic-probabilistic linkage.

RESULTS

The estimated number of patients treated (BOC+TVR) was 13,012 versus 7,641 (real). The estimated purchase price for BOC was US$6.20 versus US$11.07 (real) and for TVR was US$42.21 versus US$84.09 (average/real). The estimated budget impact was US$285.16 million versus US$128.58 million (real).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates appreciable divergence (US$156.58 million) between the theoretical budget impact and RWE expenditures due to underestimated purchase prices and overestimated populations. The greater the degree of accuracy the more reliable and usable BIAs become for decision-making.

A Review of the Evidence on Attitudes, Perceived Impacts and Motivational Factors for European Member State Collaboration for Pricing and Reimbursement of Medicines: Time for the EEA Member States to Apply Their Experience and Expertise in Evidence-Based Decision Making to Their Current Pharmaceutical Policy Challenges

In 2018/2019 there were a number of initiatives for collaboration between Member States in the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Commission published a Proposal for a Regulation on Health Technology Assessment. In view of the perceived benefits from collaboration, the experiences and challenges of these collaborative initiatives and the possible implications of the proposed legislation, a study of the evidence on attitudes, perceived impacts and the motivational factors towards European Member State collaboration regarding the pricing and reimbursement of medicines was conducted. This study adopted an evidence-based management approach by Barends and Rousseau. The main findings showed that Member States differed in their motivation for collaboration for different pharmaceutical activities. Member States favoured voluntary co-operation for all activities of pricing and reimbursement except for relative effectiveness assessments where Member State authorities had divergent attitudes and prioritised activities related to the sustainability of their healthcare systems and access to medicines. Contrastingly pharmaceutical companies strongly favoured mandatory cooperation for evaluation. Member States motivation for collaboration was highly dependent on the purpose, political will, implementation climate and cultural factors. Currently, with the experiences of ongoing collaborations, following the progress of the discussion at Council, and with a number of inititatives for new pharmaceutical strategy and policy, it is proposed that Member States use their trust, expertise and knowledge of application of evidence-based decision making for pricing and reimbursement of medicines and apply it to decide the future model for Member State collaboration. The applicability of principles of evidence-based management to pharmaceutical policy can be used as a starting point.

Assessing the Accuracy of Sales Forecasts Submitted by Pharmaceutical Companies Applying for Reimbursement in Austria

Objectives: Reimbursement decisions on new medicines require an assessment of their value. In Austria, when applying for reimbursement of new medicines, pharmaceutical companies are also obliged to submit forecasts of future sales. We systematically examined the accuracy of these pharmaceutical sales forecasts and hence the usefulness of these forecasts for reimbursement evaluations. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed reimbursement applications of 102 new drugs submitted between 2005 and 2014, which were accepted for reimbursement outside of hospitals, and for which actual reimbursed sales were available for at least 3 years. The main outcome variable was the accuracy ratio, defined as the ratio of forecasted sales submitted by pharmaceutical companies when applying for reimbursement to actual sales from reimbursement data. Results: The median accuracy ratio [95% confidence interval] was 1.33 [1.03; 1.74, range 0.15–37.5], corresponding to a median overestimation of actual sales by 33%. Forecasts of actual sales for 55.9% of all examined products either overestimated actual sales by more than 100% or underestimated them by more than 50%. The accuracy of sales forecasts did not show systematic change over the analyzed decade nor was it discernibly influenced by reimbursement status (restricted or unrestricted), the degree of therapeutic benefit, or the therapeutic area of the pharmaceutical product. Sales forecasts of drugs with a higher degree of innovation and those within a dynamic market tended to be slightly more accurate. Conclusions: The majority of sales forecasts provided by applicants for reimbursement evaluations in Austria were highly inaccurate and were on average too optimistic. This is in line with published results for other jurisdictions and highlights the need for caution when using such forecasts for reimbursement procedures.

Evidence-based public policy making for medicines across countries: findings and implications for the future

Aim: Global expenditure on medicines is rising up to 6% per year driven by increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and new premium priced medicines for cancer, orphan diseases and other complex areas. This is difficult to sustain without reforms. Methods: Extensive narrative review of published papers and contextualizing the findings to provide future guidance. Results: New models are being introduced to improve the managed entry of new medicines including managed entry agreements, fair pricing approaches and monitoring prescribing against agreed guidance. Multiple measures have also successfully been introduced to improve the prescribing of established medicines. This includes encouraging greater prescribing of generics and biosimilars versus originators and patented medicines in a class to conserve resources without compromising care. In addition, reducing inappropriate antibiotic utilization. Typically, multiple measures are the most effective. Conclusion: Multiple measures will be needed to attain and retain universal healthcare.

Budget impact analysis of medicines: estimated values versus real-world evidence and the implications

Objectives: Budget Impact Analyses (BIA) of medicines helps managers in promoting health systems' sustainability when assessing the role and value of new medicines. However, it is not clear whether BIAs typically underestimate or overestimate the impact on real-world budgets. This retroactive analysis seeks to compare estimated values obtained by a BIA and Real-World Evidence (RWE) to guide discussions.Methods: The estimated values were obtained through a BIA concerning the incorporation of adalimumab for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis into the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) carried out retroactively and per international guidelines. RWE data was extracted from SUS computerized systems. We subsequently compared the number of treatments, costs, and Incremental Budget Impact (IBI).Results - The total number of treatments was underestimated by 10% (6,243) and the total expenditure was overestimated by 463% (US$ 4.7 billion). In five years, the total difference between the estimated values and real IBI reached US$ 1.1 billion. A current expenditure of US$ 1.0 was observed for every US$ 5.60 of estimated expenditure.Conclusion - The higher estimates from the BIA might cause decision makers to be more cautious with the introduction of a new medicine to reduce the opportunity costs for other interventions.

Potential approaches for the pricing of cancer medicines across Europe to enhance the sustainability of healthcare systems and the implications

Introduction: There are growing concerns among European health authorities regarding increasing prices for new cancer medicines, prices not necessarily linked to health gain and the implications for the sustainability of their healthcare systems.Areas covered: Narrative discussion principally among payers and their advisers regarding potential approaches to the pricing of new cancer medicines.Expert opinion: A number of potential pricing approaches are discussed including minimum effectiveness levels for new cancer medicines, managed entry agreements, multicriteria decision analyses (MCDAs), differential/tiered pricing, fair pricing models, amortization models as well as de-linkage models. We are likely to see a growth in alternative pricing deliberations in view of ongoing challenges. These include the considerable number of new oncology medicines in development including new gene therapies, new oncology medicines being launched with uncertainty regarding their value, and continued high prices coupled with the extent of confidential discounts for reimbursement. However, balanced against the need for new cancer medicines. This will lead to greater scrutiny over the prices of patent oncology medicines as more standard medicines lose their patent, calls for greater transparency as well as new models including amortization models. We will be monitoring these developments.

Rapid review of suspected adverse drug events due to remdesivir in the WHO database; findings and implications

Objectives: Remdesivir has shown promise in the management of patients with COVID-19 although recent studies have shown concerns with its effectiveness in practice. Despite this there is a need to document potential adverse drug events (ADEs) to guide future decisions as limited ADE data available before the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Interrogation of WHO VigiBase® from 2015 to 2020 coupled with published studies of ADEs in COVID-19 patients. The main outcome measures are the extent of ADEs broken down by factors including age, seriousness, region and organ. Results: A total 1086 ADEs were reported from the 439 individual case reports up to July 19, 2020, in the VigiBase®, reduced to 1004 once duplicates were excluded. Almost all ADEs concerned COVID-19 patients (92.5%), with an appreciable number from the Americas (67.7%). The majority of ADEs were from males > 45 years and were serious (82.5%). An increase in hepatic enzymes (32.1%), renal injury (14.4%), rise in creatinine levels (11.2%), and respiratory failure (6.4%) were the most frequently reported ADEs. Conclusions: Deterioration of liver and kidney function are frequently observed ADEs with remdesivir; consequently, patients should be monitored for these ADEs. The findings are in line with ADEs included in regulatory authority documents.

Real-world effectiveness of olanzapine and risperidone in the treatment of schizophrenia in Brazil over a 16-year follow-up period; findings and implications

Introduction: Antipsychotics are widely prescribed for patients with schizophrenia. The Brazilian public health system provides these patients free of charge to patients and it is pertinent to evaluate their benefits.Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of olanzapine and risperidone in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia in the real-world and assessing risk factors for their discontinuation through a national non-concurrent cohort with 16 years of follow-up.Methods: Three SUS administrative databases were integrated by deterministic-probabilistic linkage. After patients were matched (1:1) for psychiatric hospitalization, year of receiving the antipsychotic, sex, and age, considering either olanzapine or risperidone at study entry. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate the cumulative probabilities of discontinuation of treatment and associated factors were identified. Sensitivity analyses were performed.Results: 3416 pairs of patients were included. Olanzapine had a longer time until discontinuation of treatment (p = 0.021), and risperidone had a higher risk of discontinuation (p = 0.021). Among patients persistent for at least 24 months, there was no statistically significant difference.Conclusion: Olanzapine demonstrated superior real-world effectiveness over risperidone, in terms of survival and psychiatric hospitalization. This superiority was not sustained in all analyses.

Formulary Management Activities and Practice Implications Among Public Sector Hospital Pharmaceutical and Therapeutics Committees in a South African Province

Introduction

The World Health Organization identified Pharmaceutical and Therapeutics Committees (PTCs) at district and hospital levels as one of the pivotal models to promote rational use of medicines (RUM). This is endorsed by the Government in South Africa. Formulary development and management is one of the main functions of PTCs. This study aimed to describe the formulary management activities among PTCs in public hospitals in Gauteng Province, South Africa, following initiatives to promote RUM in South Africa.

Methods

Qualitative, nonparticipatory, observational study, observing 26 PTC meetings. Data were coded and categorized using NVivo9^® qualitative data analysis software. Themes and sub-themes were developed. The themes and sub-themes on formulary management are the principal focus of this paper.

Results

More than half of the observed PTCs reviewed their formulary lists. There was variation in the review process among institutions providing different levels of care. Various aspects were considered for formulary management especially requests for medicines to be added. These included cost considerations (mainly focusing on acquisition costs), evidence-based evaluation of clinical trials, patient safety, clinical experience and changes in the National Essential Medicines List (NEML). The tertiary PTCs mostly dealt with applications for new non-EML medicines, while PTCs in the other hospitals mainly requested removal or addition of EML medicines to the list.

Conclusion

This is the first study from Gauteng Province, South Africa, reporting on how decisions are actually taken to include or exclude medicines onto formularies within public sector hospitals providing different levels of care. Various approaches are adopted at different levels of care when adding to- or removing medicines from the formulary lists. Future programs should strengthen PTCs in specialized aspects of formulary management. A more structured approach to formulary review at the local PTC level should be encouraged in line with the national approach when reviewing possible additions to the NEML.

Towards greater impact in health technology assessment: horizon scanning for new and emerging technologies in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

To alert policy makers early about emerging health technologies that could significantly impact the healthcare system at the clinical, financial and organizational levels, the Agency for Care Effectiveness (ACE) in Singapore established a horizon scanning system (HSS) in 2019. This paper describes the development of the ACE HSS and showcases its application with cell and gene therapy products as the first example.

METHODS

A literature review of existing HSS methods, including the processes of the EuroScan International Network and other overseas horizon scanning agencies, was done to inform the development of our horizon scanning framework. The framework was first applied to the new and emerging cell and gene therapies.

RESULTS

Identification sources, filtration and prioritization criteria, and horizon scanning outputs for the HSS were developed in alignment to international best practices, with recommendations for technology uptake represented by a traffic light system. For the first horizon scanning exercise on cell and gene therapies, forty therapies passed the filtration step, of which eight were prioritized for further assessment. The few early reports developed were used to inform and prepare the healthcare system for their potential introduction, particularly in terms of the need to develop health and funding policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Early assessment of prioritized topics has provided support for strategic efforts within the Ministry of Health. Given that ACE's horizon scanning program is still in its infancy, the framework will continue to evolve to ensure relevance to our stakeholders so that it remains fit for purpose for our healthcare system.

A Nationwide Study of Prevalence Rates and Characteristics of 199 Chronic Conditions in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Real-world data of disease prevalence represents an important but underutilised source of evidence for health economic modelling.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to estimate nationwide prevalence rates and summarise the characteristics of 199 chronic conditions using Danish population-based health registers, to provide an off-the-shelf tool for decision makers and researchers.

METHODS

The study population comprised all Danish residents aged 16 years or above on 1 January 2013 (n = 4,555,439). The study was based on the linkage of national registers covering hospital contacts, contacts with primary care (including general practitioners) and filled-in out-of-hospital prescriptions.

RESULTS

A total of 65.6% had one or more chronic condition. The ten conditions with the highest degree of prevalence were hypertension (23.3%), respiratory allergy (18.5%), disorders of lipoprotein metabolism (14.3%), depression (10.0%), bronchitis (9.2%), asthma (7.9%), type 2 diabetes (5.3%), chronic obstructive lung disease (4.7%), osteoarthritis of the knee (3.9%) and finally osteoporosis (3.5%) and ulcers (3.5%) in joint tenth place. Characteristics by gender, age and national geographical differences were also presented.

CONCLUSIONS

A nationwide catalogue of the prevalence rates and characteristics of patients with chronic conditions based on a nationwide population is provided. The prevalence rates of the 199 conditions provide important information on the burden of disease for use in healthcare planning, as well as for economic, aetiological and other research.

Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure: ten years of experience in Stockholm

Background

Operating under constrained budgets, payers and providers globally face challenges in enabling appropriate and sustainable access to new medicines. Among payer initiatives aiming to improve preparedness of healthcare systems for the introduction of new medicines, drug utilization and expenditure forecasting has played an increasingly important role. This study aims to describe the forecasting model used in Region Stockholm and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts produced over the past decade.

Methods

In this repeated cross-sectional study, we compared the predicted pharmaceutical expenditure with actual expenditure during the entire available follow-up period (2007–2018) both for overall drug utilization and for individual therapeutic groups. All analyses were based on pharmaceutical expenditure data that include medicines used in hospitals and dispensed prescription medicines for all residents of the region.

Results

According to the forecasts, the total pharmaceutical expenditure was estimated to increase between 2 and 8% annually. Our analyses showed that the accuracy of these forecasts varied over the years with a mean absolute error of 1.9 percentage points. Forecasts for the same year were more accurate than forecasts for the next year. The accuracy of forecasts also differed across the therapeutic areas. Factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting included the timing of the introduction of both new medicines and generics, the rate of uptake of new medicines, and sudden changes in reimbursement policies.

Conclusions

Based on the analyses of all forecasting reports produced since the model was established in Stockholm in the late 2000s, we demonstrated that it is feasible to forecast pharmaceutical expenditure with a reasonable accuracy. A number of factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting were also identified. If forecasting is used to provide data for decisions on budget allocation and agreements between payers and providers, we advise to update the forecast as close as possible prior to the decision date.

Time to Review Authorisation and Funding for New Cancer Medicines in Europe? Inferences from the Case of Olaratumab

The potential benefits of early patient access to new medicines in areas of high unmet medical need are recognised, but uncertainties concerning effectiveness, safety and added value when new medicines are authorised, and subsequently funded based on initial preliminary data only, have important implications. In 2016 olaratumab received accelerated conditional approval from both the European Medicines Agency and the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of soft-tissue sarcoma, based on the claims of a substantial reduction in the risk of death with an 11.8-month improvement in median overall survival in a phase II trial in combination with doxorubicin vs. doxorubicin alone. The failure to confirm these benefits in the post-authorisation pivotal trial has highlighted key concerns regarding early access and conditional approvals for new medicines. Concerns include potentially considerable clinical and economic costs, so that patients may have received suboptimal treatment and any money spent has foregone the opportunity to improve access to effective treatments. As a result, it seems reasonable to reconsider current marketing authorisation models and approaches. Potential pathways forward include closer collaboration between regulators, pharmaceutical companies and payers to enhance the generation of rapid and comparative confirmatory trials in a safe and fair manner, with minimal patient exposure as required to achieve robust evidence. Additionally, it may be time to review early access systems, and to explore new avenues regarding who should pay or part pay for new treatments whilst information is being collected as part of any obligations for conditional marketing authorisation. Greater co-operation between countries regarding the collection of data in routine clinical care, and further research on post-marketing data analysis and interpretation, may also contribute to improved appraisal and continued access to new innovative cancer treatments.

Budget Impact of Switching to Biosimilar Trastuzumab (CT-P6) for the Treatment of Breast Cancer and Gastric Cancer in 28 European Countries

BACKGROUND

As the economic burden of treating cancer patients has been soaring in European countries, performing a budget impact analysis is becoming one of the requirements for payers' application dossiers.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the budgetary impact of introducing the biosimilar trastuzumab (CT-P6) from the payer's perspective and to determine the number of additional patients who could be treated with resulting savings in 28 European countries.

METHODS

A budget impact model was developed to analyze the financial impact of switching from originator trastuzumab to biosimilar CT-P6 in the treatment of early and metastatic breast cancer and metastatic gastric cancer with a time horizon of 1-5 years. Budgetary savings and the number of patients potentially affected were measured based on epidemiological and sales volume data. The base-case analysis assumed that the price of CT-P6 is 70% of the originator price, the switching rate of originator to CT-P6 in the first year is 20%, and the annual growth in the switching rate for each subsequent year is 5%.

RESULTS

For analyses using the base-case scenario following CT-P6 introduction, the total estimated budgetary savings over a 5-year period (depending on the scenario) ranged from €1.13 billion to €2.27 billion based on epidemiological data, or from €0.91 billion to €1.82 billion based on sales volume data. In the first year only, the projected budgetary savings ranged from €58 million to €136 million, and the number of additional patients who could be treated using the savings ranged from 3503 to 7078 by sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The conducted budget impact analysis assessing a switch from originator trastuzumab to biosimilar CT-P6 in 28 European countries indicates that budget savings could be between €0.91 billion and €2.27 billion over the next 5 years. These savings could be used to help improve patient access to local biologics in their respective countries while simultaneously strengthening the overall public health landscape across the European Union.

Horizon scanning in Brazil: outputs and repercussions

OBJECTIVE

To describe the four types of horizon scanning (HS) outputs developed by the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC) and show their main repercussions on the decision-making processes of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MH).

METHODS

Descriptive study based on participant observation and document analysis of HS outputs (internal reports, alert reports, briefs and sections for CONITEC recommendation reports) developed between January 2014 and July 2018.

RESULTS

Fifteen internal reports, six alert reports, two briefs and 57 HS sections were produced. Each output has a specific structure according to its purpose. The methodological approach adopted for developing HS outputs in Brazil is described by EuroScan International Network. The outputs had institutional and international repercussions. The activities resulted in the inclusion of HS as a tool for reducing health lawsuits in the legal framework of the MH. One of the internal reports on a high-cost drug not approved in Brazil for a rare disease was requested by the Health Technology Assessments Network for the Americas (RedETSA), showing the international relevance of the outputs. The HS sections in recommendation reports influenced discussions about incorporating technologies into the Unified Health System.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed outputs have purposes ranging from helping build arguments for defense of the MH in cases of health judicialization to inform decision-making processes. In addition, HS sections in recommendation reports have grown in importance recently. CONITEC's HS system has been structured, and its role as a tool to inform health managers has shown to be been relevant.

Different Policy Measures and Practices between Swedish Counties Influence Market Dynamics: Part 1-Biosimilar and Originator Infliximab in the Hospital Setting

Background

Decentralisation of healthcare budgets and issuance of local guidelines means that the use of biosimilars can vary by region within a particular country, for example between the 21 counties of Sweden.

Objectives

This study aimed to analyse the county-level market dynamics of biosimilar and originator infliximab, which are hospital products, and to examine how local policy measures and practices, in addition to national policy, influenced market dynamics.

Methods

We first conducted a literature review on (biosimilar) policies in Sweden, then analysed market data provided by IQVIA™ on uptake of originator and biosimilar infliximab within the different counties (Q2 2012 to Q4 2017), including discounts from (tender) contracts. Biosimilar market shares were calculated with volume data (measured as defined daily doses [DDDs]). We then discussed our findings in semi-structured interviews with the national pricing and reimbursement agency, key experts within the county councils of Skåne, Västra Götaland, and Stockholm, and an industry representative.

Results

Market shares of biosimilar infliximab vary widely between counties (range 18–96% in 2017). The initial uptake of biosimilar infliximab was slow and variable, with abrupt increments in biosimilar market shares coinciding with expiration of contracts for the originator product. Different approaches taken by counties to achieve a low cost per DDD of infliximab were identified, i.e., a rapid switch to the biosimilar (Skåne), a delayed switch to the biosimilar (Stockholm), or no switch to the biosimilar when a favourable price on the originator product could be obtained (Västra Götaland). Quantitative analysis showed that 59% of the variability in biosimilar market shares could be explained by the relative difference in discounted price between the biosimilar and the originator product. In addition, qualitative analysis indicated the presence of key opinion leaders, local guidelines and initiatives, and whose budget it affects as drivers in the decision-making process.

Conclusions

Variations in the market share of biosimilar infliximab between the Swedish counties is largely explained by the discounted price difference between biosimilar and originator product, and counties used different strategies to leverage such biosimilar competition. Additionally, the presence of key opinion leaders, local guidelines and gainsharing arrangements appeared to play a role in infliximab market dynamics in counties.

Medicine Shortages: Gaps Between Countries and Global Perspectives

Introduction: Over the last decade, global health policies and different research areas have focused on the relevance and impact of medicine shortages. Published studies suggest there have been difficulties with access to medicines since the beginning of the 20th century, and there have been advances in our understanding and management of the problem since then. However, in view of global and regional health care concerns with shortages, we believe this phenomenon needs to be characterized and described more fully regarding the types of medicines affected, possible causes, and potential strategies to address these. The aim of this scoping review was to identify, compare if possible, and characterize the recent literature regarding the situation of medicines shortages between countries, and provide different perspectives, including a global context and national approaches.

Methodology: A scoping study presented as a narrative review of the situation and findings principally based on published articles.

Results: Based on the reported cases in the literature, a typology of medicines shortage and supply interruption episodes and their causes were proposed; national approaches to notify and manage the medicines shortages cases were described and classified by update frequency; principal differences between market and supply chain management perspectives of the situation were identified and global and countries’ perspectives were described.

Conclusion: Policy makers require solutions that prevent those cases in which the population’s health is affected by episodes of medicine shortages and/or interruption in the supply chain. There is also a need to generate a glossary related to logistics management and the availability of medicines which will be useful to understand and overcome shortages. In addition, recognize that potential solutions are not only related with actions linked to research, development and innovation, but much wider. Overall, we believe this article can act as a basis for future discussions in this important area.

Scanning the horizon: a systematic literature review of methodologies

OBJECTIVES

Society is confronted with the rapid emergence of innovation in science and technology. To manage this, horizon scanning is being adopted globally to identify, assess and prioritise innovations and trends at an early stage of their development. This enables decision-makers to be better informed and to prepare for change. The aim of this paper is to systematically identify and evaluate horizon scanning methodologies employed in the healthcare and biomedical fields.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using PubMed and Embase and was supplemented with grey literature searches (2008-2018). The principal methodologies used in horizon scanning were extracted.

RESULTS

Approximately 100 articles were summarised in a literature map. The search revealed many examples of horizon scanning across disciplines. Challenges, such as the need to refine prioritisation criteria, manage uncertainty inherent in the findings and improve the dissemination of identified issues, have been highlighted.

CONCLUSION

Horizon scanning, when performed appropriately, is a flexible and potentially reliable tool, with a wide variety of methods. Horizon scanning can inform and influence decision-making, through identifying opportunities and challenges, from an organisational to an international level. Further research to identify the most effective methodologies available would add depth to this landscape and enable the evolution of best practice to most efficiently anticipate novel developments and innovations.

Proposal for a regulation on health technology assessment in Europe - opinions of policy makers, payers and academics from the field of HTA

INTRODUCTION

In January 2018 the European Commission published a Proposal for a Regulation on Health Technology Assessment (HTA): 'Proposal for a Regulation on health technology assessment and amending Directive 2011/24/EU'. A number of stakeholders, including some Member States, welcomed this initiative as it was considered to improve collaboration, reduce duplication and improve efficiency. There were however a number of concerns including its legal basis, the establishment of a single managing authority, the preservation of national jurisdiction over HTA decision-making and the voluntary/mandatory uptake of joint assessments by Member States. Areas covered: This paper presents the consolidated views and considerations on the original Proposal as set by the European Commission of a number of policy makers, payers, experts from pricing and reimbursement authorities and academics from across Europe. Expert commentary: The Proposal has since been extensively discussed at Council and while good progress has been achieved, there are still divergent positions. The European Parliament gave a number of recommendations for amendments. If the Proposal is approved, it is important that a balanced, improved outcome is achieved for all stakeholders. If not approved, the extensive contribution and progress attained should be sustained and preserved, and the best alternative solutions found.

Pre-reimbursement: early assessment for coverage decisions

Background

In the past decade, the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Health Technology Assessment (LBI-HTA) has introduced two programs: “Horizon Scanning in Oncology” (HSO) and extra medical services (“MELs”), which are to facilitate coverage decisions based on early assessments. This article aims to outline the general process and methods within these two programs.

Methods

A narrative-descriptive synthesis of the literature was performed to outline the general and LBI-HTA-specific processes and methods of early assessments.

Results

In total, 79 HSO assessments (2009–2018) and 95 MELs (2008–2018) have been conducted by the LBI-HTA. Recently, additional methods that contribute to European applicability have been introduced into these programs.

Conclusions

Overall, pre-coverage decisions based on early assessment reports are dependent on the existing evidence. However, the organisation of the health care system and the cross-linking between decision-makers and HTA institutions can have an impact.

Did we see it Coming? An Evaluation of the Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System

BACKGROUND

Early awareness and alert systems have been established in many countries but evidence on their ability to accurately prioritize new medicines (for early assessment) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to assess whether the Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System identified and prioritized (i.e., produced early assessment reports for) new medicines that would go on to have substantial economic impact.

METHODS

We adapted a study design commonly used in the assessment of diagnostic test accuracy. The prioritization made by the Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System prior to marketing authorization comprised the index test and the national drug sales data in the second year post-authorization served as the reference standard. All initial marketing authorization applications for medicinal products processed by the European Medicines Agency between 2010 and 2015 (study population) were classified using the index test and the reference standard.

RESULTS

Two hundred and fifty-three new medicinal products processed by the European Medicines Agency comprised the study population. Of these, 71 were prioritized by the Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System and 21 were classified as having substantial economic impact. The sensitivity and positive predictive value were 76.2% and 22.5%, respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that the accuracy of prioritization, in terms of sensitivity, was 100% for antineoplastic/immunomodulating agents.

CONCLUSIONS

The Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System identified all new medicines that would go on to have substantial economic impact and prioritized most of these medicines. Our findings provide reassurance to decision makers who rely on the outputs of the Swedish Early Awareness and Alert System to keep informed about new medicines. Moreover, this study also provides valuable insights to stakeholders willing to establish or evaluate their own early awareness and alert activities and systems.

Clinical and Financial Implications of Medicine Consumption Patterns at a Leading Referral Hospital in Kenya to Guide Future Planning of Care

Background: Medicines can constitute up to 70% of total health care budgets in developing countries as well as considerable expenditure in hospitals. Inventory management techniques can assist with managing resources efficiently. In Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH), a leading hospital in Kenya, over 30% of expenditure is currently allocated to medicines, and this needs to be optimally managed.

Objective: To investigate drug consumption patterns, their costs and morbidity patterns at KNH in recent years.

Methodology: Cross-sectional retrospective record review. Inventory control techniques, ABC (Always, Better, and Control), VEN (Vital, Essential, and Non-essential) and ABC-VEN matrix analyses were used to study drug expenditure patterns. Morbidity data was extracted from the Medical Records.

Results: Out of an average of 811 medicine types procured annually (ATC 5), 80% were formulary drugs and 20% were non-formulary. Class A medicines constituted 13.2–14.2% of different medicines procured each year but accounted for an average of 80% of total annual drug expenditure. Class B medicines constituted 15.9–17% of all the drugs procured yearly but accounted for 15% of the annual expenditure, whilst Class C medicines constituted 70% of total medicines procured but only 5% of the total expenditure. Vital and Essential medicines consumed the highest percentage of drug expenditure. ABC-VEN categorization showed that an average of 31% of medicine types consumed an average of 85% of total drug expenditure. Therapeutic category and Morbidity patterns analysis showed a mismatch between drug expenditure and morbidity patterns in over 85% of the categories.

Conclusion: Class A medicines are few but consume the largest proportion of hospital drug expenditure. Vital and essential items account for the highest drug expenditure, and need to be carefully managed. ABC-VEN categorization identified medicines where major savings could potentially be made helped by Therapeutic category and Morbidity pattern analysis. There was a high percentage of non-formulary items, which needs to be addressed. Inventory control techniques should be applied routinely to optimize medicine use within available budgets especially in low and middle income countries.

Barriers for Access to New Medicines: Searching for the Balance Between Rising Costs and Limited Budgets

Introduction: There is continued unmet medical need for new medicines across countries especially for cancer, immunological diseases, and orphan diseases. However, there are growing challenges with funding new medicines at ever increasing prices along with funding increased medicine volumes with the growth in both infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases across countries. This has resulted in the development of new models to better manage the entry of new medicines, new financial models being postulated to finance new medicines as well as strategies to improve prescribing efficiency. However, more needs to be done. Consequently, the primary aim of this paper is to consider potential ways to optimize the use of new medicines balancing rising costs with increasing budgetary pressures to stimulate debate especially from a payer perspective.

Methods: A narrative review of pharmaceutical policies and implications, as well as possible developments, based on key publications and initiatives known to the co-authors principally from a health authority perspective.

Results: A number of initiatives and approaches have been identified including new models to better manage the entry of new medicines based on three pillars (pre-, peri-, and post-launch activities). Within this, we see the growing role of horizon scanning activities starting up to 36 months before launch, managed entry agreements and post launch follow-up. It is also likely there will be greater scrutiny over the effectiveness and value of new cancer medicines given ever increasing prices. This could include establishing minimum effectiveness targets for premium pricing along with re-evaluating prices as more medicines for cancer lose their patent. There will also be a greater involvement of patients especially with orphan diseases. New initiatives could include a greater role of multicriteria decision analysis, as well as looking at the potential for de-linking research and development from commercial activities to enhance affordability.

Conclusion: There are a number of ongoing activities across countries to try and fund new valued medicines whilst attaining or maintaining universal healthcare. Such activities will grow with increasing resource pressures and continued unmet need.

Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates

BACKGROUND

Within (European) healthcare systems, the predominant goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure-driven by high prices-will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at 'net' prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK).

METHODS

We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from 'list' to 'net' prices, as far as data were available.

RESULTS

We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010-2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected.

Hepatitis C in Brazil: lessons learned with boceprevir and telaprevir

In 2012, the first-generation protease inhibitors telaprevir (TVR) and boceprevir (BOC) were introduced in the Brazilian health system for treatment of chronic hepatitis C, after their approval by the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC). However, these medicines were discontinued in 2015. The short period of use in therapy and their high cost require a discussion about the consequences for patients and for the health system of the early incorporation of new therapies. The article presents a qualitative analysis of the incorporation process of both medications in Brazil and the results of a multicenter study that included patients treated with BOC or TVR between January 2011 and December 2015 in five Brazilian cities. The study included 855 patients (BOC: n=247) and (TVR: n=608). The document analysis showed that CONITEC's decision to incorporate BOC and TVR was based on results of phase III clinical trials that compared sustained virologic response (SVR) rates of patients treated with BOC and TVR with rates of those that received placebo. However, these studies included a low percentage of cirrhotic patients. The SVR rates observed in this multicenter study were worse than clinical trials pointed out (BOC: 45.6%; TVR: 51.8%), but similar to those achieved with previously adopted therapies. The discontinuation rate due to adverse events was (BOC: 15.4%; TVR: 12.7%). Based on these unsatisfactory results, the study brings a discussion that goes beyond the therapy outcomes, exploring the incorporation of these high-cost medicines and the related decision-making process, contributing to future decisions in medicine policies and in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

HOW CAN HEALTH SYSTEMS PREPARE FOR NEW AND EMERGING HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES? THE ROLE OF HORIZON SCANNING REVISITED

OBJECTIVES

For many years, several health technology assessment (HTA) agencies scanned the horizon to identify health technologies that were safe, effective and offer value for money. However, there is limited evidence regarding its impact. The role of horizon scanning in preparing health systems for the uptake of new and emerging health technologies was discussed during the 2018 HTA International (HTAi) Global Policy Forum Meeting.

METHODS

Reflection of the discussion between seventy-two senior representatives from for-profit, not-for-profit organizations, and HTAi leadership. It was informed by a background paper, and presentations from four invited experts and seventeen Policy Forum members.

RESULTS

Current horizon scanning systems (HSS) mainly identify health technologies in the late stage of development, aiming to inform topic selection for HTA. Areas for improvement included the need for a clearer definition of the end user(s), purpose, scope, and focus of HSS, the long-term full health system effects, including all relevant stakeholders as early as possible, and considering smart data systems and international collaboration to improve HSS's efficiency. The way in which HSS could be further optimized and better shaped to prepare health systems was also discussed and good practice examples were presented.

CONCLUSIONS

HSS have not yet reached their full potential in preparing health systems. To improve the current situation, the HTA community could act as convenors, bringing together all relevant stakeholders and providing the information that decision makers need. This would require a new, more integrative approach to define and use HSS and HTA, and requires new skills.