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Kopańska K, Rodríguez-Belenguer P, Llopis-Lorente J, Trenor B, Saiz J, Pastor M. Uncertainty assessment of proarrhythmia predictions derived from multi-level in silico models. Arch Toxicol 2023; 97:2721-2740. [PMID: 37528229 PMCID: PMC10474996 DOI: 10.1007/s00204-023-03557-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 08/03/2023]
Abstract
In silico methods can be used for an early assessment of arrhythmogenic properties of drug candidates. However, their use for decision-making is conditioned by the possibility to estimate the predictions' uncertainty. This work describes our efforts to develop uncertainty quantification methods for the predictions produced by multi-level proarrhythmia models. In silico models used in this field usually start with experimental or predicted IC50 values that describe drug-induced ion channel blockade. Using such inputs, an electrophysiological model computes how the ion channel inhibition, exerted by a drug in a certain concentration, translates to an altered shape and duration of the action potential in cardiac cells, which can be represented as arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers such as the APD90. Using this framework, we identify the main sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and propose a method based on probabilistic simulations that replaces single-point estimates predicted using multiple input values, including the IC50s and the electrophysiological parameters, by distributions of values. Two selected variability types associated with these inputs are then propagated through the multi-level model to estimate their impact on the uncertainty levels in the output, expressed by means of intervals. The proposed approach yields single predictions of arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers together with value intervals, providing a more comprehensive and realistic description of drug effects on a human population. The methodology was tested by predicting arrhythmogenic biomarkers on a series of twelve well-characterised marketed drugs, belonging to different arrhythmogenic risk classes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karolina Kopańska
- Research Programme on Biomedical Informatics (GRIB), Department of Medicine and Life Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pablo Rodríguez-Belenguer
- Research Programme on Biomedical Informatics (GRIB), Department of Medicine and Life Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Technology and Parasitology, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Jordi Llopis-Lorente
- Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Bioingeniería (Ci2B), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Beatriz Trenor
- Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Bioingeniería (Ci2B), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Javier Saiz
- Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Bioingeniería (Ci2B), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Manuel Pastor
- Research Programme on Biomedical Informatics (GRIB), Department of Medicine and Life Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain.
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Kutumova E, Kiselev I, Sharipov R, Lifshits G, Kolpakov F. Thoroughly Calibrated Modular Agent-Based Model of the Human Cardiovascular and Renal Systems for Blood Pressure Regulation in Health and Disease. Front Physiol 2021; 12:746300. [PMID: 34867451 PMCID: PMC8632703 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.746300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Here we present a modular agent-based mathematical model of the human cardiovascular and renal systems. It integrates the previous models primarily developed by A. C. Guyton, F. Karaaslan, K. M. Hallow, and Y. V. Solodyannikov. We performed the model calibration to find an equilibrium state within the normal vital sign ranges for a healthy adult. We verified the model's abilities to reproduce equilibrium states with abnormal physiological values related to different combinations of cardiovascular diseases (such as systemic hypertension, chronic heart failure, pulmonary hypertension, etc.). For the model creation and validation, we involved over 200 scientific studies covering known models of the human cardiovascular and renal functions, biosimulation platforms, and clinical measurements of physiological quantities in normal and pathological conditions. We compiled detailed documentation describing all equations, parameters and variables of the model with justification of all formulas and values. The model is implemented in BioUML and available in the web-version of the software.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Kutumova
- Department of Computational Biology, Sirius University of Science and Technology, Sochi, Russia.,Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Novosibirsk, Russia.,Biosoft.Ru, Ltd., Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Ilya Kiselev
- Department of Computational Biology, Sirius University of Science and Technology, Sochi, Russia.,Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Novosibirsk, Russia.,Biosoft.Ru, Ltd., Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Ruslan Sharipov
- Department of Computational Biology, Sirius University of Science and Technology, Sochi, Russia.,Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Novosibirsk, Russia.,Biosoft.Ru, Ltd., Novosibirsk, Russia.,Specialized Educational Scientific Center, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Galina Lifshits
- Laboratory for Personalized Medicine, Center of New Medical Technologies, Institute of Chemical Biology and Fundamental Medicine SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Fedor Kolpakov
- Department of Computational Biology, Sirius University of Science and Technology, Sochi, Russia.,Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Novosibirsk, Russia.,Biosoft.Ru, Ltd., Novosibirsk, Russia
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