Probabilistic assessment of drought stress vulnerability in grasslands of Xinjiang, China

Response of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence-based spatial and temporal evolution of vegetation in Xinjiang to multiscale drought

Climate change and human activities have increased droughts, especially overgrazing and deforestation, which seriously threaten the balance of terrestrial ecosystems. The ecological carrying capacity and vegetation cover in the arid zone of Xinjiang, China, are generally low, necessitating research on vegetation response to drought in such arid regions. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020 and revealed the response mechanism of SIF to multi-timescale drought in different vegetation types using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. We employed trend analysis, standardized anomaly index (SAI), Pearson correlation, and trend prediction techniques. Our investigation focused on the correlations between GOSIF (a new SIF product based on the Global Orbital Carbon Observatory-2), NDVI, and EVI with SPEI12 for different vegetation types over the past two decades. Additionally, we examined the sensitivities of vegetation GOSIF to various scales of SPEI in a typical drought year and predicted future drought trends in Xinjiang. The results revealed that the spatial distribution characteristics of GOSIF, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were consistent, with mean correlations with SPEI at 0.197, 0.156, and 0.128, respectively. GOSIF exhibited the strongest correlation with SPEI, reflecting the impact of drought stress on vegetation photosynthesis. Therefore, GOSIF proves advantageous for drought monitoring purposes. Most vegetation types showed a robust response of GOSIF to SPEI at a 9-month scale during a typical drought year, with grassland GOSIF being particularly sensitive to drought. Our trend predictions indicate a decreasing trend in GOSIF vegetation in Xinjiang, coupled with an increasing trend in drought. This study found that compared with that of the traditional greenness vegetation index, GOSIF has obvious advantages in monitoring drought in the arid zone of Xinjiang. Furthermore, it makes up for the lack of research on the mechanism of vegetation GOSIF response to drought on multiple timescales in the arid zone. These results provide strong theoretical support for investigating the monitoring, assessment, and prediction of vegetation response to drought in Xinjiang, which is vital for comprehending the mechanisms of carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.

Monitoring and influencing factors of grassland livestock overload in Xinjiang from 1982 to 2020

It is crucial to estimate the theoretical carrying capacity of grasslands in Xinjiang to attain a harmonious balance between grassland and livestock, thereby fostering sustainable development in the livestock industry. However, there has been a lack of quantitative assessments that consider long-term, multi-scale grass-livestock balance and its impacts in the region. This study utilized remote sensing and empirical models to assess the theoretical livestock carrying capacity of grasslands. The multi-scale spatiotemporal variations of the theoretical carrying capacity in Xinjiang from 1982 to 2020 were analyzed using the Sen and Mann-Kendall tests, as well as the Hurst index. The study also examined the county-level grass-livestock balance and inter-annual trends. Additionally, the study employed the geographic detector method to explore the influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) The overall theoretical livestock carrying capacity showed an upward trend from 1982 to 2020; The spatial distribution gradually decreased from north to south and from east to west. In seasonal scale from large to small is: growing season > summer > spring > autumn > winter; at the monthly scale, the strongest livestock carrying capacity is in July. The different grassland types from largest to smallest are: meadow > alpine subalpine meadow > plain steppe > desert steppe > alpine subalpine steppe. In the future, the theoretical livestock carrying capacity of grassland will decrease. (2) From 1988 to 2020, the average grass-livestock balance index in Xinjiang was 2.61%, showing an overall increase. At the county level, the number of overloaded counties showed an overall increasing trend, rising from 46 in 1988 to 58 in 2020. (3) Both single and interaction factors of geographic detectors showed that annual precipitation, altitude and soil organic matter were the main drivers of spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland load in Xinjiang. The results of this study can provide scientific guidance and decision-making basis for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of grassland resources and animal husbandry in the region.

The Estimation of Grassland Aboveground Biomass and Analysis of Its Response to Climatic Factors Using a Random Forest Algorithm in Xinjiang, China

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key indicator of the physiological status and productivity of grasslands, and its accurate estimation is essential for understanding regional carbon cycles. In this study, we developed a suitable AGB model for grasslands in Xinjiang based on the random forest algorithm, using AGB observation data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and meteorological data. We estimated the grassland AGB from 2000 to 2022, analyzed its spatiotemporal changes, and explored its response to climatic factors. The results showed that (1) the model was reliable (R2 = 0.55, RMSE = 64.33 g·m-2) and accurately estimated the AGB of grassland in Xinjiang; (2) the spatial distribution of grassland AGB in Xinjiang showed high levels in the northwest and low values in the southeast. AGB showed a growing trend in most areas, with a share of 61.19%. Among these areas, lowland meadows showed the fastest growth, with an average annual increment of 0.65 g·m-2·a-1; and (3) Xinjiang's climate exhibited characteristics of warm humidification, and grassland AGB showed a higher correlation with precipitation than temperature. Developing remote sensing models based on random forest algorithms proves an effective approach for estimating AGB, providing fundamental data for maintaining the balance between grass and livestock and for the sustainable use and conservation of grassland resources in Xinjiang, China.