Mental health progress requires causal diagnostic nosology and scalable causal discovery

Bayesian causal graphical model for joint Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple exposures and outcomes

Current Mendelian randomization (MR) methods do not reflect complex relationships among multiple exposures and outcomes as is typical for real-life applications. We introduce MrDAG, a Bayesian causal graphical model for summary-level MR analysis to detect dependency relations within the exposures, the outcomes, and between them to improve causal effects estimation. MrDAG combines three causal inference strategies. It uses genetic variation as instrumental variables to account for unobserved confounders. It performs structure learning to detect and orientate the direction of the dependencies within the exposures and the outcomes. Finally, interventional calculus is employed to derive principled causal effect estimates. In MrDAG the directionality of the causal effects between the exposures and the outcomes is assumed known, i.e., the exposures can only be potential causes of the outcomes, and no reverse causation is allowed. In the simulation study, MrDAG outperforms recently proposed one-outcome-at-a-time and multi-response multi-variable Bayesian MR methods as well as causal graphical models under the constraint on edges' orientation from the exposures to the outcomes. MrDAG was motivated to unravel how lifestyle and behavioral exposures impact mental health. It highlights first, education and second, smoking as effective points of intervention given their important downstream effects on mental health. It also enables the identification of a novel path between smoking and the genetic liability to schizophrenia and cognition, demonstrating the complex pathways toward mental health. These insights would have been impossible to delineate without modeling the paths between multiple exposures and outcomes at once.

Avoidance of causality outside experiments: Hypotheses from cognitive dissonance reduction

The avoidance of causality in the design, analysis and interpretation of non-experimental studies has often been criticised as an untenable scientific stance, because theories are based on causal relations (and not associations) and a rich set of methodological tools for causal analysis has been developed in recent decades. Psychology researchers (n = 106 with complete data) participated in an online study presenting a causal statement about the results of a fictitious paper on the potential effect of drinking clear water for years on the risk of dementia. Two randomised groups of participants were then asked to reflect on the conflict between the goal of approaching a causal answer and the prevailing norm of avoiding doing so. One of the two groups was also instructed to think about possible benefits of addressing causality. Both groups then responded to a list of 19 items about attitudes to causal questions in science. A control group did this without reflecting on conflict or benefits. Free-text assessments were also collected during reflection, giving some indication of how and why causality is avoided. We condense the exploratory findings of this study into five new hypotheses about the how and why, filtered through what can be explained by cognitive dissonance reduction theory. These concern the cost of addressing causality, the variety of ways in which dissonance can be reduced, the need for profound intervention through teaching and social aspects. Predictions are derived from the hypotheses for confirmation trials in future studies and recommendations for teaching causality. Open data are provided for researchers' own analyses.

Leveraging big data for causal understanding in mental health: a research framework

Over the past 30 years there have been numerous large-scale and longitudinal psychiatric research efforts to improve our understanding and treatment of mental health conditions. However, despite the huge effort by the research community and considerable funding, we still lack a causal understanding of most mental health disorders. Consequently, the majority of psychiatric diagnosis and treatment still operates at the level of symptomatic experience, rather than measuring or addressing root causes. This results in a trial-and-error approach that is a poor fit to underlying causality with poor clinical outcomes. Here we discuss how a research framework that originates from exploration of causal factors, rather than symptom groupings, applied to large scale multi-dimensional data can help address some of the current challenges facing mental health research and, in turn, clinical outcomes. Firstly, we describe some of the challenges and complexities underpinning the search for causal drivers of mental health conditions, focusing on current approaches to the assessment and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders, the many-to-many mappings between symptoms and causes, the search for biomarkers of heterogeneous symptom groups, and the multiple, dynamically interacting variables that influence our psychology. Secondly, we put forward a causal-orientated framework in the context of two large-scale datasets arising from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, the largest long-term study of brain development and child health in the United States, and the Global Mind Project which is the largest database in the world of mental health profiles along with life context information from 1.4 million people across the globe. Finally, we describe how analytical and machine learning approaches such as clustering and causal inference can be used on datasets such as these to help elucidate a more causal understanding of mental health conditions to enable diagnostic approaches and preventative solutions that tackle mental health challenges at their root cause.

Cerebrospinal and Brain Proteins Implicated in Neuropsychiatric and Risk Factor Traits: Evidence from Mendelian Randomization

Neuropsychiatric disorders present a global health challenge, necessitating an understanding of their molecular mechanisms for therapeutic development. Using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, this study explored associations between genetically predicted levels of 173 proteins in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and 25 in the brain with 14 neuropsychiatric disorders and risk factors. Follow-up analyses assessed consistency across plasma protein levels and gene expression in various brain regions. Proteins were instrumented using tissue-specific genetic variants, and colocalization analysis confirmed unbiased gene variants. Consistent MR and colocalization evidence revealed that lower cortical expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 8, coupled higher abundance in the CSF and plasma, associated with lower fluid intelligence scores and decreased bipolar disorder risk. Additionally, elevated apolipoprotein-E2 and hepatocyte growth factor-like protein in the CSF and brain were related to reduced leisure screen time and lower odds of physical activity, respectively. Furthermore, elevated CSF soluble tyrosine-protein kinase receptor 1 level increased liability to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and schizophrenia alongside lower fluid intelligence scores. This research provides genetic evidence supporting novel tissue-specific proteomic targets for neuropsychiatric disorders and their risk factors. Further exploration is necessary to understand the underlying biological mechanisms and assess their potential for therapeutic intervention.