Effect of Cold Spells and Their Different Definitions on Mortality in Shenzhen, China

Bone Modelling and Remodelling in Cold Environment

People engaged in various activities in cold environments-such as those living in cold climates, polar workers, cold storage workers, and athletes engaged in winter sports-are frequently affected by cold environments. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the modelling and remodelling of bones in cold environments. Cold environments can shorten the length of bones, thin the thickness of bones, decrease bone mineral density (BMD), change the biomechanical properties of bones, and lead to bone loss. In addition, cold directly affects the bone microenvironment. Exposure to cold causes spindle-like and fibroblast-like changes in bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) and decreases their proliferation, and cold exposure promotes the osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs partly through the p38 MAPK pathway. Cold also alters the dendritic differentiation of OBs by reducing the transmembrane glycoprotein E11/podoplanin and damages endothelial cells (ECs) by elevating levels of VEGF, resulting in a reduced blood supply and thus fewer OBs. In addition, cold promotes lipolysis of marrow adipose tissue (MAT), but in combination with exercise, it can promote the differentiation of BMSCs into MAT. Cold environments interfere with angiogenesis and inhibit bone growth by affecting factors such as platelet-derived growth factor type BB (PDGF-BB), slit guidance ligand 3 (SLIT3), Notch, and VEGF. In addition, cold environments may promote bone resorption by activating sympathetic nerves to activate β-adrenergic receptors and regulating leptin secretion, and regulate bone metabolism by activating the p38 MAPK signalling pathway and increasing the synthesis of brown fat, which ultimately inhibit bone formation and enhance bone resorption. In this paper, we describe the effects of cold environments on bones in the locomotor system in terms of bone structure, bone mass, biomechanical properties, and various skeletal cells, bone blood vessels, and bone fat systems in the bone microenvironment.

Effects of the interaction between cold spells and fine particulate matter on mortality risk in Xining: a case-crossover study at high altitude

Background

With global climate change, the health impacts of cold spells and air pollution caused by PM2.5 are increasingly aggravated, especially in high-altitude areas, which are particularly sensitive. Exploring their interactions is crucial for public health.

Methods

We collected time-series data on meteorology, air pollution, and various causes of death in Xining. This study employed a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models to explore the association between cold spells, PM2.5 exposure, and various causes of death, and to assess their interaction. We quantitatively analyzed the interaction using the relative excess odds due to interaction (REOI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP), and synergy index (S). Moreover, we conducted stratified analyses by average altitude, sex, age, and educational level to identify potential vulnerable groups.

Results

We found significant associations between cold spells, PM2.5, and various causes of death, with noticeable effects on respiratory disease mortality and COPD mortality. We identified significant synergistic effects (REOI>0, AP > 0, S > 1) between cold spells and PM2.5 on various causes of death, which generally weakened with a stricter definition of cold spells and longer duration. It was estimated that up to 9.56% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to concurrent exposure to cold spells and high-level PM2.5. High-altitude areas, males, the older adults, and individuals with lower educational levels were more sensitive. The interaction mainly varied among age groups, indicating significant impacts and a synergistic action that increased mortality risk.

Conclusion

Our study found that in high-altitude areas, exposure to cold spells and PM2.5 significantly increased the mortality risk from specific diseases among the older adults, males, and those with lower educational levels, and there was an interaction between cold spells and PM2.5. The results underscore the importance of reducing these exposures to protect public health.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.

METHODS

A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world.

FINDINGS

Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones.

INTERPRETATION

Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Investigation the relationship between causes of death and thermal comfort conditions: the sample of Amasya Province

Despite many advances in medicine, there is still a strong relationship between human health and atmospheric conditions. This study determines the effects of thermal comfort conditions on the causes of death in the province of Amasya, which is located in the Mediterranean basin. Meteorological data and monthly mortality data were used as material. As a method, thermal comfort conditions were determined by the Rayman model according to the PET index. Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis methods were used to determine the effects of air temperature and thermal comfort conditions on the causes of death. In conclusion, it has been determined that thermal comfort conditions are effective on the total number of deaths, deaths due to external injuries and poisonings, deaths due to circulatory, and respiratory system diseases, but not for deaths due to other causes. These findings are important for early warning systems, preventive, and protective measures in health systems.

The interactive effects of extreme temperatures and PM2.5 pollution on mortalities in Jiangsu Province, China

Exposure to extreme temperatures or fine particles is associated with adverse health outcomes but their interactive effects remain unclear. We aimed to explore the interactions of extreme temperatures and PM2.5 pollution on mortalities. Based on the daily mortality data collected during 2015-2019 in Jiangsu Province, China, we conducted generalized linear models with distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the regional-level effects of cold/hot extremes and PM2.5 pollution. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) was evaluated to represent the interaction. The relative risks (RRs) and cumulative relative risks (CRRs) of total and cause-specific mortalities associated with hot extremes were significantly stronger (p < 0.05) than those related to cold extremes across Jiangsu. We identified significantly higher interactions between hot extremes and PM2.5 pollution, with the RERI range of 0.00-1.15. The interactions peaked on ischaemic heart disease (RERI = 1.13 [95%CI: 0.85, 1.41]) in middle Jiangsu. For respiratory mortality, RERIs were higher in females and the less educated. The interaction pattern remained consistent when defining the extremes/pollution with different thresholds. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the interactions between extreme temperatures and PM2.5 pollution on total and cause-specific mortalities. The projected interactions call for public health actions to face the twin challenges, especially the co-appearance of hot extremes and PM pollution.

Impact of cold spells on COPD mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

Ambient cold is associated with substantial population attributable fraction of mortality in China, and respiratory health is vulnerable to cold exposure. This study aimed to examine the effect of cold spells on risk of deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We collected daily data on deaths from COPD and climatic factors from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2019 in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, China. We used a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model to quantify the association between risk of COPD deaths and exposure to cold spells (defined as 2 or more consecutive days with mean temperature ≤ 5^th percentile of daily mean temperature distribution in cold months). Stratification analyses by age, sex, education, and occupation were undertaken to identify vulnerable subgroups. The results suggested that exposure to cold spells was associated with a higher risk of COPD deaths in Lianyungang (relative risk (RR): 1.70; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31, 2.21), Nanjing (RR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.04), Nantong (RR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.31), Suzhou (RR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.55, 2.50), Suqian (RR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.29), Taizhou (RR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.32, 2.19), Wuxi (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.53, 2.60), Xuzhou (RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90), Yancheng (RR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.53, 2.06), Yangzhou (RR: 2.78; 95% CI: 2.06, 3.76), and Zhenjiang (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.26, 2.55). All subgroups seemed to be vulnerable to the effect of cold spells. The recommendation of this study is that individuals with pre-existing COPD, regardless of age, sex, education, or occupation, should be made aware of the health risk posed by cold spells and should be encouraged to take cold adaptation actions before cold season arrives. The main limitation of this study is that it is subject to ecological fallacy.

The influence of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian subarctic cities with varying climates

Publications on ambient temperature-related mortality among Arctic or subarctic populations are extremely rare. While circumpolar areas cover large portions of several European countries, Canada, and the USA, the population of these territories is relatively small, and the data needed for statistical analysis of the health impacts of extreme temperature events are frequently insufficient. This study utilizes standard time series regression techniques to estimate relative increases in cause- and age-specific daily mortality rates during heat waves and cold spells in four Russian cities with a subarctic climate. The statistical significance of the obtained effect estimates tends to be greater in the continental climate than in the marine climate. A small meta-analysis was built around the obtained site-specific health effects. The effects were homogeneous and calculated for the selected weather-dependent health outcomes. The relative risks of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, all diseases of the circulatory system, and all non-accidental causes during cold spells in the age group ≥ 65 years were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11-1.29), 1.14 (1.08-1.20), and 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. Cold spells were more harmful to the health of the residents of Murmansk, Archangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, and only in Yakutsk, heat waves were more dangerous. The results of this study can help the public health authorities develop specific measures for the prevention of excess deaths during cold spells and heat waves in the exposed subarctic populations.