Geospatial Modelling and Univariate Analysis of Commensal Rodent-Borne Cestodoses: The Case of Invasive spp. of Rattus and Indigenous Mastomys coucha From South Africa

Predicting the potential distribution of a previously undetected cryptic invasive synanthropic Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in South Africa

Three species of Rattus, Norway rat (R. norvergicus), black rat (R. rattus) and Asian house rat (R. tanezumi) are currently known to occur in South Africa. The latter two species are cryptic and form part of the Rattus rattus species complex. Historically, R. norvegicus has been reported to occur along the coast and in urban centres, R. rattus is widespread in most urban areas, except in the drier areas, while R. tanezumi was only recorded to occur in the country (and Africa) ca. 15 years ago, and its distribution remains unknown. The aim of this study was to predict the potential distribution of R. tanezumi in South Africa and assess how it overlaps with that of R. norvegicus and R. rattus using species distribution modelling. Rattus tanezumi was predicted to mainly occur in most inland urban areas and along the coast. The distribution of R. rattus was as expected, in contrast, the predicted range of R. norvegicus was not restricted to the coast but also included inland urban areas. All three species showed broad potential distributional ranges that overlapped extensively indicating that their establishment and spread may be influenced by similar factors such as proximity to urban areas and a wet and moderate climate. These results allow insights into assessing their risk of establishment and for formulating appropriate intervention strategies for their management and control.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Non-Native Mammalian Species Sold in the South African Pet Trade

The pet trade is one of the main pathways of introduction of several mammals worldwide. In South Africa, non-native mammalian species are traded as pets, and so far, only four of these species are considered invasive. We used a list of 24 companion mammalian species compiled from a previous study. We selected a subset of 14 species for species distribution modeling (SDM) based on their trade popularity, invasion history and potential economic and socio-economic impacts. We aimed to estimate their potential distribution using their distribution records. Our SDM indicated that climate in South Africa was suitable for most traded species. However, commonly and easily available species had the broadest areas of suitable climates, such as house mice (Mus musculus) and Norwegian rats (Rattus norvegicus). In addition, the model with a human footprint suggested a high risk of invasion for Norwegian rats but less for house mice distribution. This assessment suggests the need of strict trade regulations and management strategies for pet mammals with broader suitability, which are already invasive, and most available for sale. In addition, our results provide a baseline approach that can be used to identify mammalian pet species with a potential risk of invasion so that urgent preventive measures can be implemented.