Surrogate Endpoints for Late Kidney Transplantation Failure

Competing and Noncompeting Risk Models for Predicting Kidney Allograft Failure

Background

Prognostic models are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical trials as potential surrogate end points and for patient management as clinical decision support tools. However, the effect of competing risks on model performance remains poorly investigated. We aimed to carefully assess the performance of competing risk and noncompeting risk models in the context of kidney transplantation, where allograft failure and death with a functioning graft are two competing outcomes.

Methods

We included 11,046 kidney transplant recipients enrolled in ten countries. We developed prediction models for long-term kidney graft failure prediction, without accounting (i.e., censoring) and accounting for the competing risk of death with a functioning graft, using Cox, Fine–Gray, and cause-specific Cox regression models. To this aim, we followed a detailed and transparent analytical framework for competing and noncompeting risk modeling and carefully assessed the models' development, stability, discrimination, calibration, overall fit, clinical utility, and generalizability in external validation cohorts and subpopulations. More than 15 metrics were used to provide an exhaustive assessment of model performance.

Results

Among 11,046 recipients in the derivation and validation cohorts, 1497 (14%) lost their graft and 1003 (9%) died with a functioning graft after a median follow-up postrisk evaluation of 4.7 years (interquartile range, 2.7–7.0). The cumulative incidence of graft loss was similarly estimated by Kaplan–Meier and Aalen–Johansen methods (17% versus 16% in the derivation cohort). Cox and competing risk models showed similar and stable risk estimates for predicting long-term graft failure (average mean absolute prediction error of 0.0140, 0.0138, and 0.0135 for Cox, Fine–Gray, and cause-specific Cox models, respectively). Discrimination and overall fit were comparable in the validation cohorts, with concordance index ranging from 0.76 to 0.87. Across various subpopulations and clinical scenarios, the models performed well and similarly, although in some high-risk groups (such as donors older than 65 years), the findings suggest a trend toward moderately improved calibration when using a competing risk approach.

Conclusions

Competing and noncompeting risk models performed similarly in predicting long-term kidney graft failure.

Chronic Rejection After Kidney Transplantation

In kidney transplantation, ongoing alloimmune processes-commonly triggered by HLA incompatibilities-can trigger chronic transplant rejection, affecting the microcirculation and the tubulointerstitium. Continuous inflammation may lead to progressive, irreversible graft injury, culminating in graft dysfunction and accelerated transplant failure. Numerous experimental and translational studies have delineated a complex interplay of different immune mechanisms driving rejection, with antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) being an extensively studied rejection variant. In microvascular inflammation, a hallmark lesion of AMR, natural killer (NK) cells have emerged as pivotal effector cells. Their essential role is supported by immunohistologic evidence, bulk and spatial transcriptomics, and functional genetics. Despite significant research efforts, a substantial unmet need for approved rejection therapies persists, with many trials yielding negative outcomes. However, several promising therapies are currently under investigation, including felzartamab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the surface molecule CD38, which is highly expressed in NK cells and antibody-producing plasma cells. In an exploratory phase 2 trial in late AMR, this compound has demonstrated potential in resolving molecular and morphologic rejection activity and injury, predominantly by targeting NK cell effector function. These findings inspire hope for effective treatments and emphasize the necessity of further pivotal trials focusing on chronic transplant rejection.

Co-designing a Novel Ordinal Endpoint for an Adaptive Platform Trial, BANDICOOT, in Pediatric Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant

An adaptive platform trial (APT) offers the ability to incorporate several research questions in the same target population across multiple domains (interventions), with the ability to add new questions in a perpetual manner. An APT is particularly appealing for pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT); an area of high heterogeneity, limited trial availability, and high mortality. Ideally, all domains in an APT would have the same primary endpoint. Therefore, an ordinal endpoint with multiple categories that combines various clinical outcomes into a single outcome measure is particularly appealing for APTs. Unfortunately, there is no accepted ordinal endpoint for pediatric HCT trials. This article aims to describe the methodology used to co-design a novel primary ordinal endpoint for the pediatric HCT APT - BANDICOOT. BANDICOOT is a study that aims to build an adaptive novel platform design - improving the complications, cost-effectiveness, outcomes, and overall survival from hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.The results of this process identified two potential ordinal endpoints that could be used, one focusing on organ support and the other on a combination of organ support, viral reactivation, and immune reconstitution. We explored the data extraction required for these endpoints from electronic medical records that we will utilize to validate the endpoints and determine which will be used in the APT BANDICOOT. In an era in which APTs are becoming increasingly utilized to answer important questions in clinical care, this article describes a reproducible strategy for the design of high-quality and meaningful ordinal endpoints.

A competing risks model to estimate the risk of graft failure and patient death after kidney transplantation using continuous donor-recipient age combinations

Graft failure and recipient death with functioning graft are important competing outcomes after kidney transplantation. Risk prediction models typically censor for the competing outcome thereby overestimating the cumulative incidence. The magnitude of this overestimation is not well described in real-world transplant data. This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from the European Collaborative Transplant Study (n = 125 250) and from the American Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 190 258). Separate cause-specific hazard models using donor and recipient age as continuous predictors were developed for graft failure and recipient death. The hazard of graft failure increased quadratically with increasing donor age and decreased decaying with increasing recipient age. The hazard of recipient death increased linearly with increasing donor and recipient age. The cumulative incidence overestimation due to competing risk-censoring was largest in high-risk populations for both outcomes (old donors/recipients), sometimes amounting to 8.4 and 18.8 percentage points for graft failure and recipient death, respectively. In our illustrative model for posttransplant risk prediction, the absolute risk of graft failure and death is overestimated when censoring for the competing event, mainly in older donors and recipients. Prediction models for absolute risks should treat graft failure and death as competing events.

Comparison of Kidney Graft Function and Survival in an Emulated Trial With Living Donors and Brain-Dead Donors

Living donation (LD) transplantation is the preferred treatment for kidney failure as compared to donation after brain death (DBD), but age may play a role. We compared the 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after kidney transplantation for recipients of LD and DBD stratified by recipient and donor age between 2015 and 2018 in a matched cohort. The strength of the association between donation type and 1-year eGFR differed by recipient age (P interaction < 0.0001). For LD recipients aged 40-54 years versus same-aged DBD recipients, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.16-1.90). For DBD recipients aged ≥ 60 years, the aOR was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.12-0.29) versus DBD recipients aged 40-54 years but was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.67-1.24) versus LD recipients aged ≥60 years. In the matched cohort, 4-year graft and patient survival differed by donor age and type. As compared with DBD grafts, LD grafts increased the proportion of recipients with 1-year eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Recipients aged ≥60 years benefited most from LD transplantation, even if the donor was aged ≥60 years. For younger recipients, large age differences between donor and recipient could also be addressed with a paired exchange program.

Longitudinal monitoring of Torque Teno virus DNAemia in kidney transplant recipients correlates with long-term complications of inadequate immunosuppression

Optimization of individual immunosuppression, which reduces the risks of both graft loss and patients' death, is considered the best approach to improve long-term outcomes of renal transplantation. Torque Teno Virus (TTV) DNAemia has emerged as a potential biomarker reflecting the depth of therapeutic immunosuppression during the initial year post-transplantation. However, its efficacy in long-term monitoring remains uncertain. In a cohort study involving 34 stable kidney transplant recipients and 124 healthy volunteers, we established lower and upper TTV DNAemia thresholds (3.75-5.1 log10 cp/mL) correlating with T-cell activatability, antibody response against flu vaccine, and risk for subsequent serious infections or cancer over 50 months. Validation in an independent cohort of 92 recipients confirmed that maintaining TTV DNAemia within this range in >50% of follow-up time points was associated with reduced risks of complications due to inadequate immunosuppression, including de novo DSA, biopsy-proven antibody-mediated rejection, graft loss, infections, or cancer. Multivariate analysis highlighted "in-target" TTV DNAemia as the sole independent variable significantly linked to decreased risk for long-term complications due to inadequate immunosuppression (odds ratio [OR]: 0.27 [0.09-0.77]; p = 0.019). Our data suggest that the longitudinal monitoring of TTV DNAemia in kidney transplant recipients could help preventing the long-term complications due to inadequate immunosuppression.

Challenges and opportunities for designing clinical trials for antibody mediated rejection

Significant progress has been made in kidney transplantation, with 1-year graft survival nearing 95%. However, long-term allograft survival remains suboptimal, with a 10-year overall graft survival rate of only 53.6% for deceased donor transplant recipients. Chronic active antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is a leading cause of death-censored graft loss, yet no therapy has demonstrated efficacy in large, randomized trials, despite substantial investment from pharmaceutical companies. Several clinical trials aimed to treat chronic ABMR in the past decade have yielded disappointing results or were prematurely terminated, attributed to factors including incomplete understanding of disease mechanisms, heterogeneous patient populations with comorbidities, slow disease progression, and limited patient numbers. This review aims to discuss opportunities for improving retrospective and prospective studies of ABMR, focusing on addressing heterogeneity, outcome measurement, and strategies to enhance patient enrollment to inform study design, data collection, and reporting.

Transplant nephropathology: Wherefrom, wherein, and whereto

Renal pathology is a relatively recent entry in nephrology. While diseases of the kidney are old, their study began in the 19th century with the report of Richard Bright of the lesions of end-stage kidney disease. Its easy diagnosis from albuminuria soon elevated Bright's nephritis into a leading cause of death. The transformative events in the care of these cases were renal replacement therapy that converted a fatal into a chronic disease, and kidney biopsy that allowed study of the course and pathogenesis of kidney disease. Apart from its fundamental contributions to clinical nephrology, biopsy of renal allografts became an integral component of the evaluation and care of kidney transplant recipients. The Banff transplant pathology conferences launched in 1991 led to developing the classification of allograft pathology into an essential element in the evaluation, treatment, and care of allograft recipients with spirit of discovery. That success came at the cost of increasing complexity leading to the recent realization that it may need the refinement of its consensus-based system into a more evidence-based system with graded statements that are easily accessible to the other disciplines involved in the care of transplanted patients. Collaboration with other medical disciplines, allowing public comment on meeting reports, and incorporation of generative artificial intelligence (AI) are important elements of a successful future. The increased pace of innovation brought about by AI will likely allow us to solve the organ shortage soon and require new classifications for xenotransplantation pathology, tissue engineering pathology, and bioartificial organ pathology.

Tocilizumab in chronic active antibody-mediated rejection: rationale and protocol of an in-progress randomized controlled open-label multi-center trial (INTERCEPT study)

BACKGROUND

Chronic active antibody-mediated rejection (caAMR) in kidney transplants is associated with irreversible tissue damage and a leading cause of graft loss in the long-term. However, the treatment for caAMR remains a challenge to date. Recently, tocilizumab, a recombinant humanized monoclonal antibody directed against the human interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor, has shown promise in the treatment of caAMR. However, it has not been systematically investigated so far underscoring the need for randomized controlled studies in this area.

METHODS

The INTERCEPT study is an investigator-driven randomized controlled open-label multi-center trial in kidney transplant recipients to assess the efficacy of tocilizumab in the treatment of biopsy-proven caAMR. A total of 50 recipients with biopsy-proven caAMR at least 12 months after transplantation will be randomized to receive either tocilizumab (n = 25) added to our standard of care (SOC) maintenance treatment or SOC alone (n = 25) for a period of 24 months. Patients will be followed for an additional 12 months after cessation of study medication. After the inclusion biopsies at baseline, protocol kidney graft biopsies will be performed at 12 and 24 months. The sample size calculation assumed a difference of 5 ml/year in slope of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between the two groups for 80% power at an alpha of 0.05. The primary endpoint is the slope of eGFR at 24 months after start of treatment. The secondary endpoints include assessment of the following at 12, 24, and 36 months: composite risk score iBox, safety, evolution and characteristics of donor-specific antibodies (DSA), graft histology, proteinuria, kidney function assessed by measured GFR (mGFR), patient- and death-censored graft survival, and patient-reported outcomes that include transplant-specific well-being, adherence to immunosuppressive medications and perceived threat of the risk of graft rejection.

DISCUSSION

No effective treatment exists for caAMR at present. Based on the hypothesis that inhibition of IL-6 receptor by tocilizumab will reduce antibody production and reduce antibody-mediated damage, our randomized trial has a potential to provide evidence for a novel treatment strategy for caAMR, therewith slowing the decline in graft function in the long-term.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04561986. Registered on September 24, 2020.

The Banff 2022 Kidney Meeting Work Plan: Data-driven refinement of the Banff Classification for renal allografts

The XVIth Banff Meeting for Allograft Pathology was held in Banff, Alberta, Canada, from September 19 to 23, 2022, as a joint meeting with the Canadian Society of Transplantation. In addition to a key focus on the impact of microvascular inflammation and biopsy-based transcript analysis on the Banff Classification, further sessions were devoted to other aspects of kidney transplant pathology, in particular T cell-mediated rejection, activity and chronicity indices, digital pathology, xenotransplantation, clinical trials, and surrogate endpoints. Although the output of these sessions has not led to any changes in the classification, the key role of Banff Working Groups in phrasing unanswered questions, and coordinating and disseminating results of investigations addressing these unanswered questions was emphasized. This paper summarizes the key Banff Meeting 2022 sessions not covered in the Banff Kidney Meeting 2022 Report paper and also provides an update on other Banff Working Group activities relevant to kidney allografts.

Multiomics Data Reveal the Important Role of ANXA2R in T Cell-mediated Rejection After Renal Transplantation

BACKGROUND

T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) is a severe issue after renal transplantation, but research on its T cell-receptor (TCR) repertoire is lacking. This study intended to elucidate the TCR repertoire landscape in TCMR and hence identify novel potential targets.

METHODS

A total of 12 multiomics data sets were collected. The TRUST4 algorithm was used to construct and analyze the TCR repertoire in renal allografts with TCMR and stable renal function. Then, novel TCR-related key genes were identified through various criteria and literature research. In bulk transcriptome, cell line, single-cell transcriptome data sets, multiple immune cell infiltration algorithms, and gene set enrichment analysis were used to analyze potential mechanisms of the identified key gene. Twenty-three pathological sections were collected for immunofluorescence staining in the clinical cohort. Finally, the diagnostic and prognostic values of ANXA2R were evaluated in multiple renal transplant data sets.

RESULTS

Allografts with TCMR showed significantly increased clonotype and specific clonal expansion. ANXA2R was found to be a novel key gene for TCMR and showed strong positive connections with the TCR complex and lymphocyte cells, especially CD8 + T cells. Immunofluorescence staining confirmed the existence of ANXA2R + CD8 + T cells, with their percentage significantly elevated in TCMR compared with stable renal function. Finally, both mRNA and protein levels of ANXA2R showed promising diagnostic and prognostic value for renal transplant recipients.

CONCLUSIONS

ANXA2R , identified as a novel TCR-related gene, had critical roles in clinicopathology, diagnosis, and prognosis in renal transplantation, which offered promising potential therapeutic targets.

Predictors of graft failure after first detection of de novo donor-specific HLA antibodies in kidney transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

De novo donor-specific antibodies (dnDSAs) may cause antibody-mediated rejection and graft dysfunction. Little is known about the clinical course after first detection of dnDSAs during screening in asymptomatic patients. We aimed to assess the value of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria to predict graft failure in patients with dnDSAs and their potential utility as surrogate endpoints.

METHODS

All 400 kidney transplant recipients with dnDSAs at our centre (1 March 2000-31 May 2021) were included in this retrospective study. The dates of graft loss, rejection, doubling of creatinine, ≥30% eGFR decline, proteinuria ≥500 mg/g and ≥1000 mg/g were registered from the first dnDSA appearance.

RESULTS

During 8.3 years of follow-up, graft failure occurred in 33.3% of patients. Baseline eGFR and proteinuria correlated with 5-year graft loss (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0.75 and 0.80, P < .001). Creatinine doubled after a median of 2.8 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.5-5.0] from dnDSA and the time from doubling creatinine to graft failure was 1.0 year (IQR 0.4-2.9). Analysing eGFR reduction ≥30% as a surrogate endpoint (148/400), the time from dnDSA to this event was 2.0 years (IQR 0.6-4.2), with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 45.9% to predict graft loss, which occurred after 2.0 years (IQR 0.8-3.2). The median time from proteinuria ≥500 mg/g and ≥1000 mg/g to graft failure was identical, 1.8 years, with a PPV of 43.8% and 49.0%, respectively. Composite endpoints did not improve PPV. Multivariable analysis showed that rejection was the most important independent risk factor for all renal endpoints and graft loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal function, proteinuria and rejection are strongly associated with graft failure in patients with dnDSA and may serve as surrogate endpoints.

Challenges in the management of the kidney allograft: from decline to failure: conclusions from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference

In March 2022, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) held a virtual Controversies Conference to address the important but rarely examined phase during which the kidney transplant is failing or has failed. In addition to discussing the definition of a failing allograft, 4 broad areas were considered in the context of a declining functioning graft: prognosis and kidney failure trajectory; immunosuppression strategies; management of medical and psychological complications, and patient factors; and choice of kidney replacement therapy or supportive care following graft loss. Identifying and paying special attention to individuals with failing allografts was felt to be important in order to prepare patients psychologically, manage immunosuppression, address complications, prepare for dialysis and/or retransplantation, and transition to supportive care. Accurate prognostication tools, although not yet widely available, were embraced as necessary to define allograft survival trajectories and the likelihood of allograft failure. The decision of whether to withdraw or continue immunosuppression after allograft failure was deemed to be based most appropriately on risk-benefit analysis and likelihood of retransplantation within a few months. Psychological preparation and support was identified as a critical factor in patient adjustment to graft failure, as was early communication. Several models of care were noted that enabled a medically supportive transition back to dialysis or retransplantation. Emphasis was placed on the importance of dialysis-access readiness before initiation of dialysis, in order to avoid use of central venous catheters. The centrality of the patient to all management decisions and discussions was deemed to be paramount. Patient "activation," which can be defined as engaged agency, was seen as the most effective way to achieve success. Unresolved controversies, gaps in knowledge, and areas for research were also stressed in the conference deliberations.

Embracing the Wisdom of Ancient Greece in the Era of Personalized Medicine-Uncertainty, Probabilistic Reasoning, and Democratic Consensus

Further improvements of outcome after solid organ transplantation will depend on our ability to integrate personalized medicine in clinical routine. Not only better risk stratification or improved diagnostics, also targeted therapies and predictive markers of treatment success are needed, as there is a virtual standstill in the development and implementation of novel therapies for prevention and treatment of allograft rejection. The integration of clinical decision support algorithms and novel biomarkers in clinical practice will require a different reasoning, embracing concepts of uncertainty and probabilistic thinking as the ground truth is often unknown and the tools imperfect. This is important for communication between healthcare professionals, but patients and their caregivers also need to be informed and educated about the levels of uncertainty inherent to personalized medicine. In the translation of research findings and personalized medicine to routine clinical care, it remains crucial to maintain global consensus on major aspects of clinical routine, to avoid further divergence between centres and countries in the standard of care. Such consensus can only be reached when experts with divergent opinions are willing to transcend their own convictions, understand that there is not one single truth, and thus are able to embrace a level of uncertainty.

Systemic inflammation early after kidney transplantation is associated with long-term graft loss: a cohort study

Background

Early graft loss following kidney transplantation is mainly a result of acute rejection or surgical complications, while long-term kidney allograft loss is more complex. We examined the association between systemic inflammation early after kidney transplantation and long-term graft loss, as well as correlations between systemic inflammation scores and inflammatory findings in biopsies 6 weeks and 1 year after kidney transplantation.

Methods

We measured 21 inflammatory biomarkers 10 weeks after transplantation in 699 patients who were transplanted between 2009 and 2012 at Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Norway. Low-grade inflammation was assessed with predefined inflammation scores based on specific biomarkers: one overall inflammation score and five pathway-specific scores. Surveillance or indication biopsies were performed in all patients 6 weeks after transplantation. The scores were tested in Cox regression models.

Results

Median follow-up time was 9.1 years (interquartile range 7.6-10.7 years). During the study period, there were 84 (12.2%) death-censored graft losses. The overall inflammation score was associated with long-term kidney graft loss both when assessed as a continuous variable (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, P = 0.005) and as a categorical variable (4th quartile: hazard ratio 3.19, 95% CI 1.43-7.10, P = 0.005). In the pathway-specific analyses, fibrogenesis activity and vascular inflammation stood out. The vascular inflammation score was associated with inflammation in biopsies 6 weeks and 1 year after transplantation, while the fibrinogenesis score was associated with interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, a systemic inflammatory environment early after kidney transplantation was associated with biopsy-confirmed kidney graft pathology and long-term kidney graft loss. The systemic vascular inflammation score correlated with inflammatory findings in biopsies 6 weeks and 1 year after transplantation.

Validation of a prediction system for risk of kidney allograft failure in pediatric kidney transplant recipients: An international observational study

Predicting long-term kidney allograft failure is an unmet need for clinical care and clinical trial optimization in children. We aimed to validate a kidney allograft failure risk prediction system in a large international cohort of pediatric kidney transplant recipients. Patients from 20 centers in Europe and the United States, transplanted between 2004 and 2017, were included. Allograft assessment included estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, circulating antihuman leukocyte antigen donor-specific antibody, and kidney allograft histology. Individual predictions of allograft failure were calculated using the integrative box (iBox) system. Prediction performances were assessed using discrimination and calibration. The allograft evaluations were performed in 706 kidney transplant recipients at a median time of 9.1 (interquartile range, 3.3-19.2) months posttransplant; mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 68.7 ± 28.1 mL/min/1.73 m2, and median urine protein-to-creatinine ratio was 0.1 (0.0-0.4) g/g, and 134 (19.0%) patients had antihuman leukocyte antigen donor-specific antibodies. The iBox exhibited accurate calibration and discrimination for predicting the outcomes up to 10 years after evaluation, with a C-index of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.87). This study confirms the generalizability of the iBox to predict long-term kidney allograft failure in children, with performances similar to those reported in adults. These results support the use of the iBox to improve patient monitoring and facilitate clinical trials in children.

Qualifying a novel clinical trial endpoint (iBOX) predictive of long-term kidney transplant outcomes

New immunosuppressive therapies that improve long-term graft survival are needed in kidney transplant. Critical Path Institute's Transplant Therapeutics Consortium received a qualification opinion for the iBOX Scoring System as a novel secondary efficacy endpoint for kidney transplant clinical trials through European Medicines Agency's qualification of novel methodologies for drug development. This is the first qualified endpoint for any transplant indication and is now available for use in kidney transplant clinical trials. Although the current efficacy failure endpoint has typically shown the noninferiority of therapeutic regimens, the iBOX Scoring System can be used to demonstrate the superiority of a new immunosuppressive therapy compared to the standard of care from 6 months to 24 months posttransplant in pivotal or exploratory drug therapeutic studies.

Qualifying a Novel Clinical Trial Endpoint (iBOX) Predictive of Long-Term Kidney Transplant Outcomes

New immunosuppressive therapies that improve long-term graft survival are needed in kidney transplant. Critical Path Institute's Transplant Therapeutics Consortium received a qualification opinion for the iBOX Scoring System as a novel secondary efficacy endpoint for kidney transplant clinical trials through European Medicines Agency's qualification of novel methodologies for drug development. This is the first qualified endpoint for any transplant indication and is now available for use in kidney transplant clinical trials. Although the current efficacy failure endpoint has typically shown the noninferiority of therapeutic regimens, the iBOX Scoring System can be used to demonstrate the superiority of a new immunosuppressive therapy compared to the standard of care from 6 months to 24 months posttransplant in pivotal or exploratory drug therapeutic studies.

Data-Driven Chronic Allograft Phenotypes: A Novel and Validated Complement for Histologic Assessment of Kidney Transplant Biopsies

BACKGROUND

No validated system currently exists to realistically characterize the chronic pathology of kidney transplants that represents the dynamic disease process and spectrum of disease severity. We sought to develop and validate a tool to describe chronicity and severity of renal allograft disease and integrate it with the evaluation of disease activity.

METHODS

The training cohort included 3549 kidney transplant biopsies from an observational cohort of 937 recipients. We reweighted the chronic histologic lesions according to their time-dependent association with graft failure, and performed consensus k-means clustering analysis. Total chronicity was calculated as the sum of the weighted chronic lesion scores, scaled to the unit interval.

RESULTS

We identified four chronic clusters associated with graft outcome, based on the proportion of ambiguous clustering. The two clusters with the worst survival outcome were determined by interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) and by transplant glomerulopathy. The chronic clusters partially overlapped with the existing Banff IFTA classification (adjusted Rand index, 0.35) and were distributed independently of the acute lesions. Total chronicity strongly associated with graft failure (hazard ratio [HR], 8.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.94 to 10.88; P<0.001), independent of the total activity scores (HR, 5.01; 95% CI, 2.83 to 7.00; P<0.001). These results were validated on an external cohort of 4031 biopsies from 2054 kidney transplant recipients.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluation of total chronicity provides information on kidney transplant pathology that complements the estimation of disease activity from acute lesion scores. Use of the data-driven algorithm used in this study, called RejectClass, may provide a holistic and quantitative assessment of kidney transplant injury phenotypes and severity.

Allograft Function as Endpoint for Clinical Trials in Kidney Transplantation

Clinical study endpoints that assess the efficacy of interventions in patients with chronic renal insufficiency can be adopted for use in kidney transplantation trials, given the pathophysiological similarities between both conditions. Kidney dysfunction is reflected in the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and although a predefined (e.g., 50%) reduction in GFR was recommended as an endpoint by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2016, many other endpoints are also included in clinical trials. End-stage renal disease is strongly associated with a change in estimated (e)GFR, and eGFR trajectories or slopes are increasingly used as endpoints in clinical intervention trials in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Similar approaches could be considered for clinical trials in kidney transplantation, although several factors should be taken into account. The present Consensus Report was developed from documentation produced by the European Society for Organ Transplantation (ESOT) as part of a Broad Scientific Advice request that ESOT submitted to the EMA in 2020. This paper provides a contemporary discussion of primary endpoints used in clinical trials involving CKD, including proteinuria and albuminuria, and evaluates the validity of these concepts as endpoints for clinical trials in kidney transplantation.

Rationale for Surrogate Endpoints and Conditional Marketing Authorization of New Therapies for Kidney Transplantation

Conditional marketing authorization (CMA) facilitates timely access to new drugs for illnesses with unmet clinical needs, such as late graft failure after kidney transplantation. Late graft failure remains a serious, burdensome, and life-threatening condition for recipients. This article has been developed from content prepared by members of a working group within the European Society for Organ Transplantation (ESOT) for a Broad Scientific Advice request, submitted by ESOT to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and reviewed by the EMA in 2020. The article presents the rationale for using surrogate endpoints in clinical trials aiming at improving late graft failure rates, to enable novel kidney transplantation therapies to be considered for CMA and improve access to medicines. The paper also provides background data to illustrate the relationship between primary and surrogate endpoints. Developing surrogate endpoints and a CMA strategy could be particularly beneficial for studies where the use of primary endpoints would yield insufficient statistical power or insufficient indication of long-term benefit following transplantation.

Biomarkers of alloimmune events in pediatric kidney transplantation

Alloimmune events such as the development of de novo donor-specific antibody (dnDSA), T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), and antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) are the primary contributors to kidney transplant failure in children. For decades, a creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been the non-invasive gold standard biomarker for detecting clinically significant alloimmune events, but it suffers from low sensitivity and specificity, especially in smaller children and older allografts. Many clinically "stable" children (based on creatinine) will have alloimmune events known as "subclinical acute rejection" (based on biopsy) that merely reflect the inadequacy of creatinine-based estimates for alloimmune injury rather than a distinct phenotype from clinical rejection with allograft dysfunction. The poor biomarker performance of creatinine leads to many unnecessary surveillance and for-cause biopsies that could be avoided by integrating non-invasive biomarkers with superior sensitivity and specificity into current clinical paradigms. In this review article, we will present and appraise the current state-of-the-art in monitoring for alloimmune events in pediatric kidney transplantation. We will first discuss the current clinical standards for assessing the presence of alloimmune injury and predicting long-term outcomes. We will review principles of biomarker medicine and the application of comprehensive metrics to assess the performance of a given biomarker against the current gold standard. We will then highlight novel blood- and urine-based biomarkers (with special emphasis on pediatric biomarker studies) that have shown superior diagnostic and prognostic performance to the current clinical standards including creatinine-based eGFR. Finally, we will review some of the barriers to translating this research and implementing emerging biomarkers into common clinical practice, and present a transformative approach to using multiple biomarker platforms at different times to optimize the detection and management of critical alloimmune events in pediatric kidney transplant recipients.