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Dolciotti C, Righi M, Grecu E, Trucas M, Maxia C, Murtas D, Diana A. The translational power of Alzheimer's-based organoid models in personalized medicine: an integrated biological and digital approach embodying patient clinical history. Front Cell Neurosci 2025; 19:1553642. [PMID: 40443709 PMCID: PMC12119642 DOI: 10.3389/fncel.2025.1553642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2025] [Indexed: 06/02/2025] Open
Abstract
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex neurodegenerative condition characterized by a multifaceted interplay of genetic, environmental, and pathological factors. Traditional diagnostic and research methods, including neuropsychological assessments, imaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, have advanced our understanding but remain limited by late-stage detection and challenges in modeling disease progression. The emergence of three-dimensional (3D) brain organoids (BOs) offers a transformative platform for bridging these gaps. BOs derived from patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) mimic the structural and functional complexities of the human brain. This advancement offers an alternative or complementary approach for studying AD pathology, including β-amyloid and tau protein aggregation, neuroinflammation, and aging processes. By integrating biological complexity with cutting-edge technological tools such as organ-on-a-chip systems, microelectrode arrays, and artificial intelligence-driven digital twins (DTs), it is hoped that BOs will facilitate real-time modeling of AD progression and response to interventions. These models capture central nervous system biomarkers and establish correlations with peripheral markers, fostering a holistic understanding of disease mechanisms. Furthermore, BOs provide a scalable and ethically sound alternative to animal models, advancing drug discovery and personalized therapeutic strategies. The convergence of BOs and DTs potentially represents a significant shift in AD research, enhancing predictive and preventive capacities through precise in vitro simulations of individual disease trajectories. This approach underscores the potential for personalized medicine, reducing the reliance on invasive diagnostics while promoting early intervention. As research progresses, integrating sporadic and familial AD models within this framework promises to refine our understanding of disease heterogeneity and drive innovations in treatment and care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cristina Dolciotti
- Department of Translational Research and New Technologies in Medicine and Surgery, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | - Marco Righi
- Clinical Physiology Institute, The Italian National Research Council (CNR), Massa, Italy
| | - Eleonora Grecu
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Marcello Trucas
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Cristina Maxia
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Daniela Murtas
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Andrea Diana
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
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John A, Alhajj R, Rokne J. A systematic review of AI as a digital twin for prostate cancer care. COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE 2025; 268:108804. [PMID: 40347618 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2025.108804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2024] [Revised: 04/12/2025] [Accepted: 04/23/2025] [Indexed: 05/14/2025]
Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Twin (DT) technologies are rapidly transforming healthcare, offering the potential for personalized, accurate, and efficient medical care. This systematic review focuses on the intersection of AI-based digital twins and their applications in prostate cancer pathology. A digital twin, when applied to healthcare, creates a dynamic, data-driven virtual model that simulates a patient's biological systems in real-time. By incorporating AI techniques such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL), these systems enhance predictive accuracy, enable early diagnosis, and facilitate individualized treatment strategies for prostate cancer. This review systematically examines recent advances (2020-2025) in AI-driven digital twins for prostate cancer, highlighting key methodologies, algorithms, and data integration strategies. The literature analysis also reveals substantial progress in image processing, predictive modeling, and clinical decision support systems, which are the basic tools used when implementing digital twins for prostate cancer care. Our survey also critically evaluates the strengths and limitations of current approaches, identifying gaps such as the need for real-time data integration, improved explainability in AI models, and more robust clinical validation. It concludes with a discussion of future research directions, emphasizing the importance of integrating multi-modal data with Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs), scalability, and ethical considerations in advancing AI-driven digital twins for prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment. This paper provides a comprehensive resource for researchers and clinicians, offering insights into how AI-based digital twins can enhance precision medicine and improve patient outcomes in prostate cancer care.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Reda Alhajj
- University of Calgary, Canada; Istanbul Medipol University, Turkey; University of Southern Denmark, Denmark.
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Karpagam M, Sarumathi S, Maheshwari A, Vijayalakshmi K, Jagadeesh K, Bereznychenko V, Narayanamoorthi R. An effective PO-RSNN and FZCIS based diabetes prediction and stroke analysis in the metaverse environment. Sci Rep 2025; 15:11633. [PMID: 40185954 PMCID: PMC11971470 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-96541-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2024] [Accepted: 03/28/2025] [Indexed: 04/07/2025] Open
Abstract
Chronic disease (CD) like diabetes and stroke impacts global healthcare extensively, and continuous monitoring and early detection are necessary for effective management. The Metaverse Environment (ME) has gained attention in the digital healthcare environment; yet, it lacks adequate support for disabled individuals, including deaf and dumb people, and also faces challenges in security, generalizability, and feature selection. To overcome these limitations, a novel probabilistic-centric optimized recurrent sechelliott neural network (PO-RSNN)-based diabetes prediction (DP) and Fuzzy Z-log-clipping inference system (FZCIS)-based severity level estimation in ME is carried out. The proposed system integrates Montwisted-Jaco curve cryptography (MJCC) for secured data transmission, Aransign-principal component analysis (A-PCA) for feature dimensionality reduction, and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to address data imbalance. The diagnosed results are securely stored in the BlockChain (BC) for enhanced privacy and traceability. The experimental validation demonstrated the superior performance of the proposed system by achieving 98.97% accuracy in DP and 98.89% accuracy in stroke analysis, outperforming existing classifiers. Also, the proposed MJCC technique attained 98.92% efficiency, surpassing the traditional encryption models. Thus, the proposed system produces a secure, scalable, and highly accurate DP and stroke analysis in ME. Further, the research will extend the approach to other CD like cancer and heart disease to improve the predictive performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Karpagam
- Department of Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, SRM Nagar, Kattankulathur, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 603203, India.
| | - S Sarumathi
- Department of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, K.S.Rangasamy College of Technology, Tiruchengode, Tamil Nadu, 637215, India
| | - A Maheshwari
- Department of Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, SRM Nagar, Kattankulathur, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 603203, India
| | - K Vijayalakshmi
- Department of Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, SRM Nagar, Kattankulathur, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 603203, India
| | - K Jagadeesh
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, School of Computing, Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr. Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science and Technology, Avadi, Chennai, 600062, India
| | - V Bereznychenko
- Department of Theoretical Electrical Engineering and Diagnostics of Electrical Equipment, Institute of Electrodynamics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Beresteyskiy avenue, 56, Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine.
| | - R Narayanamoorthi
- Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur, Chennai, Tamilnadu, 603 203, India
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Sado K, Peskar J, Downey A, Khan J, Booth K. A digital twin based forecasting framework for power flow management in DC microgrids. Sci Rep 2025; 15:6430. [PMID: 39984651 PMCID: PMC11845680 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-91074-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 02/18/2025] [Indexed: 02/23/2025] Open
Abstract
The ability to forecast system conditions is integral to the definition and functionality of digital twins. While forecasting methods have been explored for use in digital twin systems, the integration of feedback mechanisms for real-time forecasting and in-situ decision-making in DC microgrids has not been extensively investigated. This research develops a modular forecasting framework tailored for digital twins in DC microgrids to enable real-time monitoring, online forecasting, and decision-making. DC microgrids, characterized by dynamic load variations, benefit from advanced predictive capabilities to maintain stability and operational efficiency. The proposed digital twin-based forecasting framework addresses these challenges by providing real-time predictive insights based on dynamic system conditions and a forecasting window defined by a decision-maker, facilitating proactive management strategies. Leveraging real-time sensor data, the digital twin forecasts system behavior under varying load conditions, enabling proactive management through real-time decision-making within operational constraints. As a proof of concept, the framework incorporates an electro-thermal digital twin designed to manage power flow based on thermal constraints in power distribution cables. Experimental validation using a simplified three-bus DC microgrid testbed demonstrates the effectiveness of the framework in enabling timely adjustments to power flows and preventing thermal overloads.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kerry Sado
- Department of Electrical Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA.
| | - Jarrett Peskar
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Austin Downey
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Jamil Khan
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Kristen Booth
- Department of Electrical Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
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Schoeberl B, Musante CJ, Ramanujan S. Future Directions for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology. Handb Exp Pharmacol 2025. [PMID: 39812657 DOI: 10.1007/164_2024_737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2025]
Abstract
In this chapter, we envision the future of Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) which integrates closely with emerging data and technologies including advanced analytics, novel experimental technologies, and diverse and larger datasets. Machine learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) will increasingly help QSP modelers to find, prepare, integrate, and exploit larger and diverse datasets, as well as build, parameterize, and simulate models. We picture QSP models being applied during all stages of drug discovery and development: During the discovery stages, QSP models predict the early human experience of in silico compounds created by generative AI. In preclinical development, QSP will integrate with non-animal "new approach methodologies" and reverse-translated datasets to improve understanding of and translation to the human patient. During clinical development, integration with complementary modeling approaches and multimodal patient data will create multidimensional digital twins and virtual populations for clinical trial simulations that guide clinical development and point to opportunities for precision medicine. QSP can evolve into this future by (1) pursuing high-impact applications enabled by novel experimental and quantitative technologies and data types; (2) integrating closely with analytical and computational advancements; and (3) increasing efficiencies through automation, standardization, and model reuse. In this vision, the QSP expert will play a critical role in designing strategies, evaluating data, staging and executing analyses, verifying, interpreting, and communicating findings, and ensuring the ethical, safe, and rational application of novel data types, technologies, and advanced analytics including AI/ML.
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Upadrista V, Nazir S, Tianfield H. Blockchain-enabled digital twin system for brain stroke prediction. Brain Inform 2025; 12:1. [PMID: 39808400 PMCID: PMC11732804 DOI: 10.1186/s40708-024-00247-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2024] [Accepted: 12/27/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2025] Open
Abstract
A digital twin is a virtual model of a real-world system that updates in real-time. In healthcare, digital twins are gaining popularity for monitoring activities like diet, physical activity, and sleep. However, their application in predicting serious conditions such as heart attacks, brain strokes and cancers remains under investigation, with current research showing limited accuracy in such predictions. Moreover, concerns around data security and privacy continue to challenge the widespread adoption of these models. To address these challenges, we developed a secure, machine learning powered digital twin application with three main objectives enhancing prediction accuracy, strengthening security, and ensuring scalability. The application achieved an accuracy of 98.28% for brain stroke prediction on the selected dataset. The data security was enhanced by integrating consortium blockchain technology with machine learning. The results show that the application is tamper-proof and is capable of detecting and automatically correcting backend data anomalies to maintain robust data protection. The application can be extended to monitor other pathologies such as heart attacks, cancers, osteoporosis, and epilepsy with minimal configuration changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Venkatesh Upadrista
- Department of Computing, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, G4 0BA, Scotland.
| | - Sajid Nazir
- Department of Computing, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, G4 0BA, Scotland
| | - Huaglory Tianfield
- Department of Computing, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, G4 0BA, Scotland
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Riahi V, Diouf I, Khanna S, Boyle J, Hassanzadeh H. Digital Twins for Clinical and Operational Decision-Making: Scoping Review. J Med Internet Res 2025; 27:e55015. [PMID: 39778199 PMCID: PMC11754991 DOI: 10.2196/55015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2023] [Revised: 07/17/2024] [Accepted: 10/28/2024] [Indexed: 01/11/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health care industry must align with new digital technologies to respond to existing and new challenges. Digital twins (DTs) are an emerging technology for digital transformation and applied intelligence that is rapidly attracting attention. DTs are virtual representations of products, systems, or processes that interact bidirectionally in real time with their actual counterparts. Although DTs have diverse applications from personalized care to treatment optimization, misconceptions persist regarding their definition and the extent of their implementation within health systems. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to review DT applications in health care, particularly for clinical decision-making (CDM) and operational decision-making (ODM). It provides a definition and framework for DTs by exploring their unique elements and characteristics. Then, it assesses the current advances and extent of DT applications to support CDM and ODM using the defined DT characteristics. METHODS We conducted a scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) protocol. We searched multiple databases, including PubMed, MEDLINE, and Scopus, for original research articles describing DT technologies applied to CDM and ODM in health systems. Papers proposing only ideas or frameworks or describing DT capabilities without experimental data were excluded. We collated several available types of information, for example, DT characteristics, the environment that DTs were tested within, and the main underlying method, and used descriptive statistics to analyze the synthesized data. RESULTS Out of 5537 relevant papers, 1.55% (86/5537) met the predefined inclusion criteria, all published after 2017. The majority focused on CDM (75/86, 87%). Mathematical modeling (24/86, 28%) and simulation techniques (17/86, 20%) were the most frequently used methods. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision coding, we identified 3 key areas of DT applications as follows: factors influencing diseases of the circulatory system (14/86, 16%); health status and contact with health services (12/86, 14%); and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases (10/86, 12%). Only 16 (19%) of 86 studies tested the developed system in a real environment, while the remainder were evaluated in simulated settings. Assessing the studies against defined DT characteristics reveals that the developed systems have yet to materialize the full capabilities of DTs. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a comprehensive review of DT applications in health care, focusing on CDM and ODM. A key contribution is the development of a framework that defines important elements and characteristics of DTs in the context of related literature. The DT applications studied in this paper reveal encouraging results that allow us to envision that, in the near future, they will play an important role not only in the diagnosis and prevention of diseases but also in other areas, such as efficient clinical trial design, as well as personalized and optimized treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vahid Riahi
- Australian e-Health Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ibrahima Diouf
- Australian e-Health Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Sankalp Khanna
- Australian e-Health Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Justin Boyle
- Australian e-Health Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hamed Hassanzadeh
- Australian e-Health Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Australia
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Woillard J, Benoist C, Destere A, Labriffe M, Marchello G, Josse J, Marquet P. To be or not to be, when synthetic data meet clinical pharmacology: A focused study on pharmacogenetics. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2025; 14:82-94. [PMID: 39412034 PMCID: PMC11706419 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.13240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2024] [Revised: 08/26/2024] [Accepted: 09/01/2024] [Indexed: 01/11/2025] Open
Abstract
The use of synthetic data in pharmacology research has gained significant attention due to its potential to address privacy concerns and promote open science. In this study, we implemented and compared three synthetic data generation methods, CT-GAN, TVAE, and a simplified implementation of Avatar, for a previously published pharmacogenetic dataset of 253 patients with one measurement per patient (non-longitudinal). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of these methods in terms of data utility and privacy trade off. Our results showed that CT-GAN and Avatar used with k = 10 (number of patients used to create the local model of generation) had the best overall performance in terms of data utility and privacy preservation. However, the TVAE method showed a relatively lower level of performance in these aspects. In terms of Hazard ratio estimation, Avatar with k = 10 produced HR estimates closest to the original data, whereas CT-GAN slightly underestimated the HR and TVAE showed the most significant deviation from the original HR. We also investigated the effect of applying the algorithms multiple times to improve results stability in terms of HR estimation. Our findings suggested that this approach could be beneficial, especially in the case of small datasets, to achieve more reliable and robust results. In conclusion, our study provides valuable insights into the performance of CT-GAN, TVAE, and Avatar methods for synthetic data generation in pharmacogenetic research. The application to other type of data and analyses (data driven) used in pharmacology should be further investigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean‐Baptiste Woillard
- Pharmacology & ToxicologyInserm, U 1248, University of Limoges, CHU LimogesLimogesFrance
- Service de PharmacologieToxicologie et Pharmacovigilance, CHU DupuytrenLimogesFrance
| | - Clément Benoist
- Pharmacology & ToxicologyInserm, U 1248, University of Limoges, CHU LimogesLimogesFrance
- Service de PharmacologieToxicologie et Pharmacovigilance, CHU DupuytrenLimogesFrance
| | - Alexandre Destere
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacovigilance CenterUniversité Côte d'Azur Medical CentreNiceFrance
- Inria, CNRS, Laboratoire J.A. Dieudonné, Maasai TeamUniversité Côte d'AzurNiceFrance
| | - Marc Labriffe
- Pharmacology & ToxicologyInserm, U 1248, University of Limoges, CHU LimogesLimogesFrance
- Service de PharmacologieToxicologie et Pharmacovigilance, CHU DupuytrenLimogesFrance
| | - Giulia Marchello
- Inria, PreMeDICaL TeamUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
| | - Julie Josse
- Inria, PreMeDICaL TeamUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
| | - Pierre Marquet
- Pharmacology & ToxicologyInserm, U 1248, University of Limoges, CHU LimogesLimogesFrance
- Service de PharmacologieToxicologie et Pharmacovigilance, CHU DupuytrenLimogesFrance
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Akbarialiabad H, Murrell DF. A new dawn for orphan diseases in dermatology: The transformative potential of digital twins. J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol 2024; 38:2309-2310. [PMID: 38713104 DOI: 10.1111/jdv.20062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2024] [Accepted: 04/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Hossein Akbarialiabad
- Faculty of Medicine, UNSW Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Dermatology, St George Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Dédée F Murrell
- Faculty of Medicine, UNSW Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Dermatology, St George Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Wu J, Koelzer VH. Towards generative digital twins in biomedical research. Comput Struct Biotechnol J 2024; 23:3481-3488. [PMID: 39435342 PMCID: PMC11491725 DOI: 10.1016/j.csbj.2024.09.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2024] [Revised: 09/30/2024] [Accepted: 09/30/2024] [Indexed: 10/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Digital twins in biomedical research, i.e. virtual replicas of biological entities such as cells, organs, or entire organisms, hold great potential to advance personalized healthcare. As all biological processes happen in space, there is a growing interest in modeling biological entities within their native context. Leveraging generative artificial intelligence (AI) and high-volume biomedical data profiled with spatial technologies, researchers can recreate spatially-resolved digital representations of a physical entity with high fidelity. In application to biomedical fields such as computational pathology, oncology, and cardiology, these generative digital twins (GDT) thus enable compelling in silico modeling for simulated interventions, facilitating the exploration of 'what if' causal scenarios for clinical diagnostics and treatments tailored to individual patients. Here, we outline recent advancements in this novel field and discuss the challenges and future research directions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiqing Wu
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Viktor H. Koelzer
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Institute of Medical Genetics and Pathology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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Drummond D, Gonsard A. Definitions and Characteristics of Patient Digital Twins Being Developed for Clinical Use: Scoping Review. J Med Internet Res 2024; 26:e58504. [PMID: 39536311 PMCID: PMC11602770 DOI: 10.2196/58504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2024] [Revised: 05/31/2024] [Accepted: 09/23/2024] [Indexed: 11/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The concept of digital twins, widely adopted in industry, is entering health care. However, there is a lack of consensus on what constitutes the digital twin of a patient. OBJECTIVE The objective of this scoping review was to analyze definitions and characteristics of patient digital twins being developed for clinical use, as reported in the scientific literature. METHODS We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, IEEE, and Google Scholar for studies claiming digital twin development or evaluation until August 2023. Data on definitions, characteristics, and development phase were extracted. Unsupervised classification of claimed digital twins was performed. RESULTS We identified 86 papers representing 80 unique claimed digital twins, with 98% (78/80) in preclinical phases. Among the 55 papers defining "digital twin," 76% (42/55) described a digital replica, 42% (23/55) mentioned real-time updates, 24% (13/55) emphasized patient specificity, and 15% (8/55) included 2-way communication. Among claimed digital twins, 60% (48/80) represented specific organs (primarily heart: 15/48, 31%; bones or joints: 10/48, 21%; lung: 6/48, 12%; and arteries: 5/48, 10%); 14% (11/80) embodied biological systems such as the immune system; and 26% (21/80) corresponded to other products (prediction models, etc). The patient data used to develop and run the claimed digital twins encompassed medical imaging examinations (35/80, 44% of publications), clinical notes (15/80, 19% of publications), laboratory test results (13/80, 16% of publications), wearable device data (12/80, 15% of publications), and other modalities (32/80, 40% of publications). Regarding data flow between patients and their virtual counterparts, 16% (13/80) claimed that digital twins involved no flow from patient to digital twin, 73% (58/80) used 1-way flow from patient to digital twin, and 11% (9/80) enabled 2-way data flow between patient and digital twin. Based on these characteristics, unsupervised classification revealed 3 clusters: simulation patient digital twins in 54% (43/80) of publications, monitoring patient digital twins in 28% (22/80) of publications, and research-oriented models unlinked to specific patients in 19% (15/80) of publications. Simulation patient digital twins used computational modeling for personalized predictions and therapy evaluations, mostly for one-time assessments, and monitoring digital twins harnessed aggregated patient data for continuous risk or outcome forecasting and care optimization. CONCLUSIONS We propose defining a patient digital twin as "a viewable digital replica of a patient, organ, or biological system that contains multidimensional, patient-specific information and informs decisions" and to distinguish simulation and monitoring digital twins. These proposed definitions and subtypes offer a framework to guide research into realizing the potential of these personalized, integrative technologies to advance clinical care.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Drummond
- Health Data- and Model-Driven Knowledge Acquisition Team, National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology, Paris, France
- Faculté de Médecine, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
- Department of Pediatric Pulmonology and Allergology, University Hospital Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France
- Inserm UMR 1138, Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, Paris, France
| | - Apolline Gonsard
- Department of Pediatric Pulmonology and Allergology, University Hospital Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France
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Padoan A, Plebani M. Dynamic mirroring: unveiling the role of digital twins, artificial intelligence and synthetic data for personalized medicine in laboratory medicine. Clin Chem Lab Med 2024; 62:2156-2161. [PMID: 38726708 DOI: 10.1515/cclm-2024-0517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2024] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 09/28/2024]
Abstract
In recent years, the integration of technological advancements and digitalization into healthcare has brought about a remarkable transformation in care delivery and patient management. Among these advancements, the concept of digital twins (DTs) has recently gained attention as a tool with substantial transformative potential in different clinical contexts. DTs are virtual representations of a physical entity (e.g., a patient or an organ) or systems (e.g., hospital wards, including laboratories), continuously updated with real-time data to mirror its real-world counterpart. DTs can be utilized to monitor and customize health care by simulating an individual's health status based on information from wearables, medical devices, diagnostic tests, and electronic health records. In addition, DTs can be used to define personalized treatment plans. In this study, we focused on some possible applications of DTs in laboratory medicine when used with AI and synthetic data obtained by generative AI. The first point discussed how biological variation (BV) application could be tailored to individuals, considering population-derived BV data on laboratory parameters and circadian or ultradian variations. Another application could be enhancing the interpretation of tumor markers in advanced cancer therapy and treatments. Furthermore, DTs applications might derive personalized reference intervals, also considering BV data or they can be used to improve test results interpretation. DT's widespread adoption in healthcare is not imminent, but it is not far off. This technology will likely offer innovative and definitive solutions for dynamically evaluating treatments and more precise diagnoses for personalized medicine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Padoan
- Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- Laboratory Medicine Unit, University-Hospital of Padova, Padova, Italy
- QI.Lab.Med, Padova, Italy
| | - Mario Plebani
- Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- QI.Lab.Med, Padova, Italy
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Noeikham P, Buakum D, Sirivongpaisal N. Architecture designing of digital twin in a healthcare unit. Health Informatics J 2024; 30:14604582241296792. [PMID: 39447608 DOI: 10.1177/14604582241296792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2024]
Abstract
Objectives: This study proposes a novel architecture for designing digital twins in healthcare units. Methods: A systematic research methodology was employed to develop architecture design patterns. In particular, a systematic literature review was conducted using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework to answer specific research questions and provide guidelines for designing the architecture. Subsequently, a case study was designed and analyzed at a chemotherapy treatment center for outpatients. Results: System architecture knowledge was distilled from this real-world case study, supplemented by existing software and systems design patterns. A novel five-layer architecture for digital twins in healthcare units was proposed with a focus on the security and privacy of patients' information. Conclusion: The proposed digital twin architecture for healthcare units offers a comprehensive solution that provides modularity, scalability, security, and interoperability. The architecture provides a robust framework for effectively and efficiently managing healthcare environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Piya Noeikham
- Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Dollaya Buakum
- Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand
- Smart Industry Research Center, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Nikorn Sirivongpaisal
- Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand
- Smart Industry Research Center, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand
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14
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Sandrone S. Digital Twins in Neuroscience. J Neurosci 2024; 44:e0932242024. [PMID: 39084938 PMCID: PMC11293441 DOI: 10.1523/jneurosci.0932-24.2024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Sandrone
- Department of Brain Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W12 0BZ, United Kingdom
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15
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Alsalloum GA, Al Sawaftah NM, Percival KM, Husseini GA. Digital Twins of Biological Systems: A Narrative Review. IEEE OPEN JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2024; 5:670-677. [PMID: 39184962 PMCID: PMC11342927 DOI: 10.1109/ojemb.2024.3426916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2024] [Revised: 05/07/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024] Open
Abstract
The concept of Digital Twins (DTs), software models that mimic the behavior and interactions of physical or conceptual objects within their environments, has gained traction in recent years, particularly in medicine and healthcare research. DTs technology emerges as a pivotal tool in disease modeling, integrating diverse data sources to computationally model dynamic biological systems. This narrative review explores potential DT applications in medicine, from defining DTs and their history to constructing DTs, modeling biologically relevant systems, as well as discussing the benefits, risks, and challenges in their application. The influence of DTs extends beyond healthcare and can revolutionize healthcare management, drug development, clinical trials, and various biomedical research fields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ghufran A. Alsalloum
- Department of Biosciences and Bioengineering, College of EngineeringAmerican University of SharjahSharjah26666UAE
| | - Nour M. Al Sawaftah
- Department of Material Science and Engineering, College of EngineeringAmerican University of SharjahSharjah26666UAE
| | - Kelly M. Percival
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, College of EngineeringAmerican University of SharjahSharjah26666UAE
| | - Ghaleb A. Husseini
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, College of EngineeringAmerican University of SharjahSharjah26666UAE
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16
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Ferlito B, De Proost M, Segers S. Navigating the Landscape of Digital Twins in Medicine: A Relational Bioethical Inquiry. Asian Bioeth Rev 2024; 16:471-481. [PMID: 39022372 PMCID: PMC11250715 DOI: 10.1007/s41649-024-00280-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 12/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
This perspective article explores the use of digital twins (DTs) in medicine, highlighting its capacity to simulate risks and personalize treatments while examining the emerging bioethical concerns. Central concerns include power dynamics, exclusion, and misrepresentation. We propose adopting a relational bioethical approach that advocates for a comprehensive assessment of DTs in medicine, extending beyond individual interactions to consider broader structural relations and varying levels of access to power. This can be achieved through two key relational recommendations: acknowledging the impact of uneven relational structures on access to medical care and promoting social justice by evaluating resource allocation. While DTs in medicine offer promising advancements, a relational bioethical lens may provide a nuanced understanding, fostering equitable, inclusive and responsible integration of DTs into medical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brandon Ferlito
- Bioethics Institute Ghent, Department of Philosophy and Moral Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Michiel De Proost
- Bioethics Institute Ghent, Department of Philosophy and Moral Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Seppe Segers
- Bioethics Institute Ghent, Department of Philosophy and Moral Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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17
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Bordukova M, Makarov N, Rodriguez-Esteban R, Schmich F, Menden MP. Generative artificial intelligence empowers digital twins in drug discovery and clinical trials. Expert Opin Drug Discov 2024; 19:33-42. [PMID: 37887266 DOI: 10.1080/17460441.2023.2273839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/28/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The concept of Digital Twins (DTs) translated to drug development and clinical trials describes virtual representations of systems of various complexities, ranging from individual cells to entire humans, and enables in silico simulations and experiments. DTs increase the efficiency of drug discovery and development by digitalizing processes associated with high economic, ethical, or social burden. The impact is multifaceted: DT models sharpen disease understanding, support biomarker discovery and accelerate drug development, thus advancing precision medicine. One way to realize DTs is by generative artificial intelligence (AI), a cutting-edge technology that enables the creation of novel, realistic and complex data with desired properties. AREAS COVERED The authors provide a brief introduction to generative AI and describe how it facilitates the modeling of DTs. In addition, they compare existing implementations of generative AI for DTs in drug discovery and clinical trials. Finally, they discuss technical and regulatory challenges that should be addressed before DTs can transform drug discovery and clinical trials. EXPERT OPINION The current state of DTs in drug discovery and clinical trials does not exploit the entire power of generative AI yet and is limited to simulation of a small number of characteristics. Nonetheless, generative AI has the potential to transform the field by leveraging recent developments in deep learning and customizing models for the needs of scientists, physicians and patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Bordukova
- Data & Analytics, Pharmaceutical Research and Early Development, Roche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany
- Institute of Computational Biology, Computational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany
- Department of Biology, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Nikita Makarov
- Data & Analytics, Pharmaceutical Research and Early Development, Roche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany
- Institute of Computational Biology, Computational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany
- Department of Biology, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Raul Rodriguez-Esteban
- Data & Analytics, Pharmaceutical Research and Early Development, Roche Innovation Center Basel (RICB), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Fabian Schmich
- Data & Analytics, Pharmaceutical Research and Early Development, Roche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany
| | - Michael P Menden
- Institute of Computational Biology, Computational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany
- Department of Biology, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany
- Department of Biochemistry and Pharmacology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD e.V.), Munich, Germany
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18
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Vallée A. Digital twin for healthcare systems. Front Digit Health 2023; 5:1253050. [PMID: 37744683 PMCID: PMC10513171 DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2023.1253050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Digital twin technology is revolutionizing healthcare systems by leveraging real-time data integration, advanced analytics, and virtual simulations to enhance patient care, enable predictive analytics, optimize clinical operations, and facilitate training and simulation. With the ability to gather and analyze a wealth of patient data from various sources, digital twins can offer personalized treatment plans based on individual characteristics, medical history, and real-time physiological data. Predictive analytics and preventive interventions are made possible by machine learning algorithms, allowing for early detection of health risks and proactive interventions. Digital twins can optimize clinical operations by analyzing workflows and resource allocation, leading to streamlined processes and improved patient care. Moreover, digital twins can provide a safe and realistic environment for healthcare professionals to enhance their skills and practice complex procedures. The implementation of digital twin technology in healthcare has the potential to significantly improve patient outcomes, enhance patient safety, and drive innovation in the healthcare industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Vallée
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Foch Hospital, Suresnes, France
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19
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Chisholm O, Critchley H. Future directions in regulatory affairs. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 9:1082384. [PMID: 36698838 PMCID: PMC9868628 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.1082384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
The field of regulatory affairs deals with the regulatory requirements for marketing authorization of therapeutic products. This field is facing a myriad of forces impacting all aspects of the development, regulation and value proposition of new therapeutic products. Changes in global megatrends, such as geopolitical shifts and the rise of the green economy, have emphasized the importance of manufacturing and supply chain security, and reducing the environmental impacts of product development. Rapid changes due to advances in science, digital disruption, a renewed focus on the centrality of the patient in all stages of therapeutic product development and greater collaboration between national regulatory authorities have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This article will discuss the various trends that are impacting the development of new therapies for alleviating disease and how these trends therefore impact on the role of the regulatory affairs professional. We discuss some of the challenges and provide insights for the regulatory professional to remain at the forefront of these trends and prepare for their impacts on their work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orin Chisholm
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Sydney Pharmacy School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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20
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Sheng B, Wang Z, Qiao Y, Xie SQ, Tao J, Duan C. Detecting latent topics and trends of digital twins in healthcare: A structural topic model-based systematic review. Digit Health 2023; 9:20552076231203672. [PMID: 37846404 PMCID: PMC10576938 DOI: 10.1177/20552076231203672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Digital twins (DTs) have received widespread attention recently, providing new ideas and possibilities for future healthcare. This review aims to provide a quantitative review to analyze specific study contents, research focus, and trends of DT in healthcare. Simultaneously, this review intends to expand the connotation of "healthcare" into two directions, namely "Disease treatment" and "Health enhancement" to analyze the content within the "DT + healthcare" field thoroughly. Methods A data mining method named Structure Topic Modeling (STM) was used as the analytical tool due to its topic analysis ability and versatility. Google Scholar, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure supplied the material papers in this review. Results A total of 94 high-quality papers published between 2018 and 2022 were gathered and categorized into eight topics, collectively covering the transformative impact across a broader spectrum in healthcare. Three main findings have emerged: (1) papers published in healthcare predominantly concentrate on technology development (artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, etc.) and application scenarios(personalized, precise, and real-time health service); (2) the popularity of research topics is influenced by various factors, including policies, COVID-19, and emerging technologies; and (3) the preference for topics is diverse, with a general inclination toward the attribute of "Health enhancement." Conclusions This review underscores the significance of real-time capability and accuracy in shaping the future of DT, where algorithms and data transmission methods assume central importance in achieving these goals. Moreover, technological advancements, such as omics and Metaverse, have opened up new possibilities for DT in healthcare. These findings contribute to the existing literature by offering quantitative insights and valuable guidance to keep researchers ahead of the curve.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Sheng
- School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing and Robotics, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zheyu Wang
- School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yujiao Qiao
- ShanghaiTech University Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China
| | - Sheng Quan Xie
- School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Jing Tao
- School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
| | - Chaoqun Duan
- School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
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21
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Lal A, Dang J, Nabzdyk C, Gajic O, Herasevich V. Regulatory oversight and ethical concerns surrounding software as medical device (SaMD) and digital twin technology in healthcare. ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE 2022; 10:950. [PMID: 36267783 PMCID: PMC9577733 DOI: 10.21037/atm-22-4203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Amos Lal
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Johnny Dang
- Department of Neurology, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Christoph Nabzdyk
- Division of Critical Care, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Ognjen Gajic
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Vitaly Herasevich
- Division of Critical Care, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
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22
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Sahal R, Alsamhi SH, Brown KN. Personal Digital Twin: A Close Look into the Present and a Step towards the Future of Personalised Healthcare Industry. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 22:5918. [PMID: 35957477 PMCID: PMC9371419 DOI: 10.3390/s22155918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Digital twins (DTs) play a vital role in revolutionising the healthcare industry, leading to more personalised, intelligent, and proactive healthcare. With the evolution of personalised healthcare, there is a significant need to represent a virtual replica for individuals to provide the right type of care in the right way and at the right time. Therefore, in this paper, we surveyed the concept of a personal digital twin (PDT) as an enhanced version of the DT with actionable insight capabilities. In particular, PDT can bring value to patients by enabling more accurate decision making and proper treatment selection and optimisation. Then, we explored the progression of PDT as a revolutionary technology in healthcare research and industry. However, although several research works have been performed for smart healthcare using DT, PDT is still at an early stage. Consequently, we believe that this work can be a step towards smart personalised healthcare industry by guiding the design of industrial personalised healthcare systems. Accordingly, we introduced a reference framework that empowers smart personalised healthcare using PDTs by bringing together existing advanced technologies (i.e., DT, blockchain, and AI). Then, we described some selected use cases, including the mitigation of COVID-19 contagion, COVID-19 survivor follow-up care, personalised COVID-19 medicine, personalised osteoporosis prevention, personalised cancer survivor follow-up care, and personalised nutrition. Finally, we identified further challenges to pave the PDT paradigm toward the smart personalised healthcare industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Radhya Sahal
- School of Computer Science and Information Technology, University College Cork, T12 E8YV Cork, Ireland
| | - Saeed H. Alsamhi
- Insight Centre for Data Analytics, National University of Ireland, N37 W089 Galway, Ireland
- Faculty of Engineering, IBB University, Ibb 70270, Yemen
| | - Kenneth N. Brown
- School of Computer Science and Information Technology, University College Cork, T12 E8YV Cork, Ireland
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23
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Mahmudimanesh M, Mirzaee M, Dehghan A, Bahrampour A. Forecasts of cardiac and respiratory mortality in Tehran, Iran, using ARIMAX and CNN-LSTM models. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:28469-28479. [PMID: 34993813 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18205-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases belong to the leading causes of disability and premature death worldwide, including in Iran. It is predicted that the burden of the disease in Iran in 2025 will be more than doubled compared to 2005. Therefore, many forecasting models have been used to predict disease progression, estimate mortality rates, and assess risk factors. Our study focused on two time series prediction on models: autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) and Convolutional neural network-long short-term memory network (CNN-LSTM). ARIMAX (6,1,6) had the best MSE of 0.655 among time series regression models. The prediction of this model shows a significant association in lag 4 and lag 6. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was also significant in lag 6, while CNN-LSTM had a much better MSE of 0.21. For the time series analysis and forecasts studied in this paper, deep learning models provided more accurate results than classical methods such as ARIMAX.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marzieh Mahmudimanesh
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Moghaddameh Mirzaee
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Azizallah Dehghan
- Noncommunicable Disease Research Center, Fasa University of Medical Sciences, Fasa, Iran
| | - Abbas Bahrampour
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
- Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
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