Regional Climate Models Validation for Agroclimatology in Romania

Evaluation of the Risk Induced by Soil Erosion on Land Use. Case Study: Guruslău Depression

Changes in land use, increasing of agricultural areas to the detriment of wooded ones, and poor management of agricultural land, along with the impact of current changes in the climate (reflected in the increase of the climate aggression index) makes soil erosion one of the main risks associated with improper land use, with a direct impact on its productivity and an indirect impact on human beings. The aim of this study is to assess the risk induced by surface soil erosion on land use, using as our main method of investigation the development of two models of integrated spatial analysis of the territory: a derived model of the universal soil loss equation (USLE) and a qualitative model that integrates the result of soil erosion assessment with the database representing the land use. This was carried out in order to highlight the impact on the territory. The spatial analysis models were developed on a structure of vector spatial databases, through which the soil type, soil texture, climate aggression coefficient, and land use were mapped, and alphanumeric databases, representing the market cost of land, in EUROs, that highlight the quality of cultivated land (in terms of productive economic potential). The induced risk estimation is based on a qualitative rating of soil erosion vulnerability on a scale from 1 to 5 (1-low vulnerability; 5-high vulnerability) and of the reduction of the economic value of the land (according to the vulnerability rating). The implemented methodology highlights the quantitative risk, with a maximum value of about 46.000 EUROs, spatially identified on large surfaces on the outskirts of the Jibou municipality. It is mainly caused by the impact of soil erosion on large areas of orchards, which provide necessary products for human consumption. The present methodology can be implemented on similar areas and can be used as a model of good practices in risk assessment based on financial losses by local public authorities.