Improving Genomic Prediction with Machine Learning Incorporating TPE for Hyperparameters Optimization

MSXFGP: combining improved sparrow search algorithm with XGBoost for enhanced genomic prediction

BACKGROUND

With the significant reduction in the cost of high-throughput sequencing technology, genomic selection technology has been rapidly developed in the field of plant breeding. Although numerous genomic selection methods have been proposed by researchers, the existing genomic selection methods still face the problem of poor prediction accuracy in practical applications.

RESULTS

This paper proposes a genome prediction method MSXFGP based on a multi-strategy improved sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to optimize XGBoost parameters and feature selection. Firstly, logistic chaos mapping, elite learning, adaptive parameter adjustment, Levy flight, and an early stop strategy are incorporated into the SSA. This integration serves to enhance the global and local search capabilities of the algorithm, thereby improving its convergence accuracy and stability. Subsequently, the improved SSA is utilized to concurrently optimize XGBoost parameters and feature selection, leading to the establishment of a new genomic selection method, MSXFGP. Utilizing both the coefficient of determination R2 and the Pearson correlation coefficient as evaluation metrics, MSXFGP was evaluated against six existing genomic selection models across six datasets. The findings reveal that MSXFGP prediction accuracy is comparable or better than existing widely used genomic selection methods, and it exhibits better accuracy when R2 is utilized as an assessment metric. Additionally, this research provides a user-friendly Python utility designed to aid breeders in the effective application of this innovative method. MSXFGP is accessible at https://github.com/DIBreeding/MSXFGP .

CONCLUSIONS

The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of MSXFGP is comparable or better than existing genome selection methods, providing a new approach for plant genome selection.

Genetic Parameter and Hyper-Parameter Estimation Underlie Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Bread Wheat

Estimation and prediction play a key role in breeding programs. Currently, phenotyping of complex traits such as nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in wheat is still expensive, requires high-throughput technologies and is very time consuming compared to genotyping. Therefore, researchers are trying to predict phenotypes based on marker information. Genetic parameters such as population structure, genomic relationship matrix, marker density and sample size are major factors that increase the performance and accuracy of a model. However, they play an important role in adjusting the statistically significant false discovery rate (FDR) threshold in estimation. In parallel, there are many genetic hyper-parameters that are hidden and not represented in the given genomic selection (GS) model but have significant effects on the results, such as panel size, number of markers, minor allele frequency, number of call rates for each marker, number of cross validations and batch size in the training set of the genomic file. The main challenge is to ensure the reliability and accuracy of predicted breeding values (BVs) as results. Our study has confirmed the results of bias-variance tradeoff and adaptive prediction error for the ensemble-learning-based model STACK, which has the highest performance when estimating genetic parameters and hyper-parameters in a given GS model compared to other models.

Stacked ensembles on basis of parentage information can predict hybrid performance with an accuracy comparable to marker-based GBLUP

Testcross factorials in newly established hybrid breeding programs are often highly unbalanced, incomplete, and characterized by predominance of special combining ability (SCA) over general combining ability (GCA). This results in a low efficiency of GCA-based selection. Machine learning algorithms might improve prediction of hybrid performance in such testcross factorials, as they have been successfully applied to find complex underlying patterns in sparse data. Our objective was to compare the prediction accuracy of machine learning algorithms to that of GCA-based prediction and genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) in six unbalanced incomplete factorials from hybrid breeding programs of rapeseed, wheat, and corn. We investigated a range of machine learning algorithms with three different types of predictor variables: (a) information on parentage of hybrids, (b) in addition hybrid performance of crosses of the parental lines with other crossing partners, and (c) genotypic marker data. In two highly incomplete and unbalanced factorials from rapeseed, in which the SCA variance contributed considerably to the genetic variance, stacked ensembles of gradient boosting machines based on parentage information outperformed GCA prediction. The stacked ensembles increased prediction accuracy from 0.39 to 0.45, and from 0.48 to 0.54 compared to GCA prediction. The prediction accuracy reached by stacked ensembles without marker data reached values comparable to those of GBLUP that requires marker data. We conclude that hybrid prediction with stacked ensembles of gradient boosting machines based on parentage information is a promising approach that is worth further investigations with other data sets in which SCA variance is high.