Risk Factor Analysis and a Predictive Model of Postoperative Depressive Symptoms in Elderly Patients Undergoing Video-Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting pulmonary complications in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) remain a prevalent concern among elderly patients undergoing surgery, with a notably higher incidence observed in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of PPCs in this population.

METHODS

A total of 2963 elderly patients who underwent thoracic surgery were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort (80%, n = 2369) or a validation cohort (20%, n = 593). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for PPCs, and a nomogram was developed based on the findings from the training cohort. The validation cohort was used to validate the model. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under ROC (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 918 (31.0%) patients reported PPCs. Nine independent risk factors for PPCs were identified: preoperative presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), elevated leukocyte count, higher partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO2) level, surgical site, thoracotomy, intraoperative hypotension, blood loss > 100 mL, surgery duration > 180 min, and malignant tumor. The AUC value for the training cohort was 0.739 (95% CI: 0.719-0.762), and it was 0.703 for the validation cohort (95% CI: 0.657-0.749). The P-values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were 0.633 and 0.144 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating a notable calibration curve fit. The DCA curve indicated that the nomogram could be applied clinically if the risk threshold was between 12% and 84%, which was found to be between 8% and 82% in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

This study highlighted the pressing need for early detection of PPCs in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery. The nomogram exhibited promising predictive efficacy for PPCs in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery, enabling the identification of high-risk patients and consequently aiding in the implementation of preventive interventions.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China

Background

Considering its high prevalence, estimating the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older Chinese adults is of particular interest. This study was conducted to develop a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China.

Methods

Our study included a total of 9599 participants utilising data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants were randomly assigned to training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify the potential predictors of arthritis. Based on the results of the multivariate binary logistic regression, a nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy and discrimination ability were assessed using calibration curve analysis, while decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefit rate.

Results

A total of 9599 participants were included in the study, of which 6716 and 2883 were assigned to the training and validation groups, respectively. A nomogram was constructed to include age, hypertension, heart diseases, gender, sleep time, body mass index (BMI), residence address, the parts of joint pain, and trouble with body pains. The results of the ROC curve suggested that the prediction model had a moderate discrimination ability (AUC >0.7). The calibration curve of the prediction model demonstrated a good predictive accuracy. The DCA curves revealed a favourable net benefit for the prediction model.

Conclusions

The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity, and can help community physicians and clinicians to preliminarily assess the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older community-dwelling adults.

Neuropsychological Symptoms and Functional Capacity in Older Adults with Chronic Pain

The impact of chronic pain on neuropsychological functioning of older adults is under-studied. The present study examined the relationship between chronic pain, depression, anxiety, cognition, and functional capacity in community-dwelling older adults (ages 60-89) who completed an outpatient neuropsychological evaluation (N = 452). Psychometrically sound and validated measures were used to assess depression (Geriatric Depression Scale [GDS]), anxiety (Beck Anxiety Inventory [BAI]), cognitive functioning (the Mini Mental Status Exam [MMSE] and the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status [RBANS]), and functional capacity (Texas Functional Living Scale [TFLS] and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire [IADL]). Multivariate analyses of covariance (MANCOVA) were conducted to examine differences between individuals with and without chronic pain, adjusting for age, education, gender, marital status, and other medical conditions. Results indicated that participants endorsing chronic pain displayed significantly higher levels of depression and anxiety, as well as lower levels of cognitive functioning and functional capacity, than those without chronic pain. Additionally, results of hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that chronic pain explained unique variance in all outcome variables, beyond demographic characteristics and health status. Chronic pain management may be an important intervention target for clinicians to help address cognitive and psychological functioning in older adults.

A Dynamic Probabilistic Model for Heterogeneous Data Fusion: A Pilot Case Study from Computer-Aided Detection of Depression

The present paper, in the framework of a search for a computer-aided method to detect depression, deals with experimental data of various types, with their correlation, and with the way relevant information about depression delivered by different sets of data can be fused to build a unique body of knowledge about individuals' mental states facilitating the diagnosis and its accuracy. To this aim, it suggests the use of a recently introduced «limiting form» of the kinetic-theoretic language, at present widely used to describe complex systems of objects of the most diverse nature. In this connection, the paper mainly aims to show how a wide range of experimental procedures can be described as examples of this «limiting case» and possibly rendered by this description more effective as methods of prediction from experience. In particular, the paper contains a simple, preliminary application of the method to the detection of depression, to show how the consideration of statistical parameters connected with the analysis of speech can modify, at least in a stochastic sense, each diagnosis of depression delivered by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II).