Identification of Clinical Phenotypes and Related Survival in Patients with Large HCCs

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Postoperative Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who are at significant risk of tumor recurrence and mortality can benefit from postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE). However, the benefits of PA-TACE remain unclear. Herein, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the prognosis of HBV-related patients who undergo PA-TACE and endeavored to guide individualized clinical treatment.

Methods

We included 432 HBV-related patients who underwent PA-TACE after curative resection were included. The dataset was divided into a training set (n=216) and an internal validation set (n=216). For identifying independent risk factors, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed. We derived a prognostic model from the training set that was internally validated. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and risk stratification were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

Results

Patients undergoing PA-TACE had significantly longer overall survival (OS) than those who did not undergo PA-TACE. Age, albumin levels, macrovascular invasion, tumor size, and, stages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer were identified as independent risk variables and concluded into the nomogram to predict the OS of HBV-related patients who received PA-TACE. The nomogram's C-index values OS were 0.710 and 0.652 in the training and internal validation sets, respectively. Both time-dependent AUC and the calibration curve showed good discrimination and model fitness. The risk score -0.12 was kept as the cut-off value that would accurately divide patients into high-risk and low-risk groups; furthermore, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed a high discriminative ability of the model.

Conclusion

We developed a predictive model. comprising a formula and nomogram to predict the OS and provide risk stratification for HBV-related patients undergoing PA-TACE, which could contribute to suitable treatment options for this patient population.

Discordance among aggressiveness characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma: Portal vein thrombosis and multifocality, related to tumor size, but not to serum alpha-fetoprotein level

Background and aims

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by several clinically important prognostic parameters, including portal vein thrombosis (PVT), tumor multifocality, and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, in addition to maximum tumor diameter (MTD). However, associations among these parameters have not been thoroughly examined. Thus, the study aimed to investigate the correlations among these HCC characteristics in a prospectively collected database.

Methods

An 8080 HCC patient database derived from our weekly HCC council meeting was examined with respect to the correlations at baseline patient presentation between increases in MTD and changes in the percentage of patients with PVT, multifocality, or AFP levels.

Results

The percentage of patients with PVT and with multifocality (tumor nodule numbers ≥3) significantly increased with enlarging MTD, regardless of the serum AFP level, showing the independence of PVT and multifocality on AFP. The percentage of patients with multifocality increased with enlarging MTD, in the presence or absence of PVT, showing the independence of multifocality from PVT. Therefore, discordance was found between different tumor parameters.

Conclusions

A statistically significant association was found between PVT and MTD and between multifocality and MTD, all three of which are independent of AFP. PVT and multifocality appeared to be independent of each other. Although PVT and multifocality were independent of AFP, they were also augmented with high serum AFP levels. The results suggest the possibility of multiple pathways of tumor progression in the later stages of HCC development.

Understanding the Drawbacks of the Current Tumor Staging Systems: How to Improve?

Tumor stage definition is required for the description of the diagnosis and the development and use of treatment guidelines, as well as to enable clinical research (including clinical trials) and cancer surveillance [...].

Nomogram for Predicting Portal Vein Thrombosis in Cirrhotic Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

AIM

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a common complication in cirrhotic patients and will aggravate portal hypertension, thus leading to a series of severe complications. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on a simple and effective model to predict PVT in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Clinical data of 656 cirrhotic patients with or without PVT in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and The Third Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University from January 2017 to March 2022 were retrospectively collected, and all patients were divided into training, internal and external validation cohorts. SPSS and R software were used to identify the independent risk factors and construct a predictive model. We evaluated the predictive value of the model by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses. The feasibility of the model was further validated in the internal and external cohorts. All enrolled patients were followed up to construct the survival curves and calculate the incidence of complications.

RESULTS

The predictors of PVT included serum albumin, D-dimer, portal vein diameter, splenectomy, and esophageal and gastric varices. Based on the clinical and imaging findings, the final model served as a potential tool for predicting PVT in cirrhotic patients, with an AUC of 0.806 (0.766 in the internal validation cohort and 0.845 in the external validation cohort). The decision curve analysis revealed that the model had a high level of concordance between different medical centers. There was a significant difference between the PVT and non-PVT groups in survival analyses, with p values of 0.0477 and 0.0319 in the training and internal validation groups, respectively, along with p value of 0.0002 in the external validation group according to log-rank test; meanwhile, the median survival times of the PVT group were 54, 43, and 40 months, respectively. The incidence of recurrent esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) during the follow-up showed significant differences among the three cohorts (p = 0.009, 0.048, and 0.001 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on our model provides a simple and convenient method for predicting PVT in cirrhotic patients. Cirrhotic patients with PVT had a shorter survival time and were prone to recurrent EGVB compared with those in the non-PVT group.

The ITA.LI.CA Consortium: How multicentre collaboration helped shape the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma on the basis of real-world evidence

The growing diffusion of digitalisation and informatics has promoted the creation and analysis of large databases able to provide solid information. Analyses of "big data" generated by real-world practice are particularly useful for knowing incidence and mortality, disparities, temporal trends of diseases, identifying risk factors, predicting future scenarios, obtaining inputs for cost-effectiveness and treatment benefit modelling, designing new studies, and monitoring rare diseases. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) represent the gold-standard for generating evidence about new diagnostic, preventive or therapeutic procedures, their results should be integrated with real-world data to personalise patient management. Indeed, a substantial proportion of patients observed in field-practice have characteristics that prevent the access to RCTs or, when included, form sub-groups too small to provide robust post-hoc analyses. Furthermore, as RCTs are resource-consuming and designed to maximize the probability of success, they are generally performed in expert centres of high-income areas, excluding economically-deprived regions which could complementarily contribute to the medical progress as huge sources of real-world data. These considerations fuelled the creation in 1998 of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) consortium, with the aim to merge data of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) managed in several centres. This cooperation permitted to analyse a multicentre, large cohort of HCC patients. Since then, the ITA.LI.CA group has progressively expanded to currently include 24 centres, and its database counts more than 9,000 patients. This article describes the history of the ITA.LI.CA consortium and presents its scientific production whose results greatly contributed to the incessant improvement of HCC management.