Excess Mortality in England during the 2019 Summer Heatwaves

Investigating ozone build-up in the east of England during the July 2015 heat wave

Ozone (O₃) precursors controls have reduced peak episodes in the UK, yet some regions still exceed the 50 ppbv (8-h) limit under certain meteorological conditions. This study uses O₃-tagging within WRF-Chem to quantify NOₓ contributions to near-surface O₃ across the East of England during a short heatwave (30 June-5 July 2015), where O₃ peaked at 116 ppbv. Despite underestimating peak O₃, the model effectively captures the episode's evolution and spatial extent (MB: -2 ppbv, r: 0.78), depicting O₃ increases on the hottest days and their decline. During the peak O₃ event, Western Europe contributed ∼60 % of daily mean O₃, while domestic NOₓ emissions accounted for only ∼4.6 %. South-easterly winds transported O₃ and precursors from BENELUX, France, Germany, the North Sea, and the English Channel. Near-surface wind convergence (-0.00002 s-1) with weaker westerlies redirected domestic O₃ to the central UK, intensifying continental influence. Conversely, south-south-westerly flows amplified domestic O₃ contributions. Analysis of the processes contributing to O₃ build-up highlights that transboundary transport played a significant role during the peak event. Boundary layer growth contributed by entraining O₃-rich air (up to 10.3 ppb h-1 across the boundary layer top), along with precursors from the residual layer, facilitating their downward mixing to surface levels. This process set the stage for in-situ photochemical O₃ production, which peaked at midday, contributing to a total daily O₃ production of 42 ppbv on average across the region. Our findings underscore the necessity of coordinated international efforts to manage transboundary pollution, alongside targeted local measures to reduce O₃ precursor emissions.

Investigating Older Adults' Response to Climate Change

Older adults are both vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and uniquely positioned to contribute to climate action. However, their ability and willingness to engage vary significantly due to health disparities, financial constraints, and cultural factors. To ensure inclusivity, climate policies must reflect these differences and empower older adults to participate effectively. This research focused on 30 London-based older adults aged 60-85 (18 women, 12 men) selected via purposive sampling and stratified by gender and climate awareness. All participants were interested in climate issues and engaged in seven small focus groups facilitated by two researchers. Discussions addressed climate perceptions, low-carbon behaviors, and policy recommendations. The findings reveal that tailored communication, featuring simplified language and visual materials, resonates deeply with older adults, fostering better understanding and emotional connection. Participants highlighted practical low-carbon actions they already undertake, such as energy conservation, food waste reduction, and public transport use. They also proposed innovative strategies for promoting climate awareness, including integrating cultural and emotional elements, encouraging intergenerational learning, and providing economic incentives for green practices. To enhance the engagement of older adults in climate action, governments and corporations should develop inclusive communication strategies, provide financial support for adopting green technologies, and foster intergenerational collaboration to share knowledge and experiences in the communities. This study amplifies the voices of older adults in climate discourse, offering actionable insights for shaping communication strategies and policies. While this study provides valuable insights into older adults' contributions to climate action, future research could expand the sample size and geographic diversity to enhance the generalizability of findings.

The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.

Large sex differences in vulnerability to circulatory-system disease under current and future climate in Bucharest and its rural surroundings

Circulatory-system diseases (CSDs) are responsible for 50-60% of all deaths in Romania. Due to its continental climate, with cold winters and very warm summers, there is a strong temperature dependence of the CSD mortality. Additionally, within its capital Bucharest, the urban heat island (UHI) is expected to enhance (reduce) heat (cold)-related mortality. Using distributed lag non-linear models, we establish the relation between temperature and CSD mortality in Bucharest and its surroundings. A striking finding is the strong temperature-related response to high urban temperatures of women in comparison with men from the total CSDs mortality. In the present climate, estimates of the CSDs attributable fraction (AF) of mortality at high temperatures is about 66% higher in Bucharest than in its rural surroundings for men, while it is about 100% times higher for women. Additionally, the AF in urban areas is also significantly higher for elderly people, and for those with hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases than in the rural surroundings. On the other hand, in rural areas, men but especially women are currently more vulnerable with respect to low temperatures than in the urban environment. In order to project future thermal-related mortality, we have used five bias-corrected climate projections from regional circulation models under two climate-change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis of the temperature-mortality associations for future climate reveals the strongest signal under the scenario RCP8.5 for women, elderly people as well as for groups with hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases. The net AF increase is much larger in urban agglomeration for women (8.2 times higher than in rural surroundings) and elderly people (8.5 times higher than in rural surroundings). However, our estimates of thermal attributable mortality are most likely underestimated due to the poor representation of UHI and future demography.