Correlation of MRI-Lesion Targeted Biopsy vs. Systematic Biopsy Gleason Score with Final Pathological Gleason Score after Radical Prostatectomy

Risk of Biochemical Recurrence and Metastasis in Prostate Cancer Patients Treated with Radical Prostatectomy After a 10-year Disease-free Interval

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing is used to follow up prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). Research on PSA thresholds for identifying PCa patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) who are at a higher risk of progression yielded inconclusive results. This study aims to investigate the risk of late BCR in PCa patients treated with RP and long postoperative (120 mo) undetectable PSA follow-up, and to identify prognostic factors for late BCR within this patient cohort.

METHODS

PCa patients treated with curative RP (1992-2012) and free of BCR during the first 120 mo following RP were retrospectively identified within five European tertiary centers; BCR was defined as two consecutive PSA values of ≥0.2 ng/ml. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models tested for an association between BCR and patient or tumor characteristics.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

The study cohort consisted of 4639 patients, of whom 243 (5.2%) developed BCR at a medium follow-up of 147 mo. Of those with BCR, 23 (9.5%) subsequently developed metastatic progression. In Kaplan-Meier models, BCR-free survival differed according to advanced tumor status. In multivariable Cox regression models, pT stage (pT3a: hazard ratio [HR]: 1.46; pT3b: HR: 2.42), pathological Gleason score (pGS 3 + 4: HR: 1.71; pGS ≥4 + 3: HR: 2.47), surgical margin (R1/Rx: HR: 1.72), and pNx stage (pNx: HR: 0.72) represented independent predictors for BCR (all p < 0.05). Conversely, age, PSA at diagnosis, and year of surgery failed to achieve independent predictor status for BCR.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Among PCa patients with an uneventful follow-up of at least 10 yr after RP, still one in 20 patients subsequently develop late BCR. Nevertheless, late BCR and subsequent progression to metastasis (0.3%) rates in patients with pT2 stage and pGS ≤3 + 4 were strikingly low, implicating that abandoning follow-up beyond an uneventful period of 10 yr is justifiable within this cohort of patients.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this study, prostate cancer patients treated with a radical prostatectomy and at least 10 yr of uneventful prostate-specific antigen testing were identified within five European centers. Relying on these patients, the rate of subsequent late biochemical recurrence was calculated and risk factors were identified for biochemical recurrence following 10 yr of uneventful prostate-specific antigen testing.

The number of involved regions by prostate adenocarcinoma predicts histopathology concordance between radical prostatectomy specimens and MRI/ultrasound-fusion targeted prostate biopsy

Introduction

The prostate biopsy (PB) results should be concordant with prostatectomy histopathology to avoid overestimating or underestimating the disease, leading to inappropriate or undertreatment of prostate cancer (PCa) patients. Since the introduction of multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging (mpMRI) in the diagnostic pathway of PCa, most studies have shown that MRI/Ultrasound fusion-guided (MRI-fusion) PB improves concordance with histopathology of radical prostatectomy specimens. This study aimed to evaluate the improvement in concordance of prostatectomy specimens with PB histopathology obtained using the MRI-fusion approach compared with the 12-core TRUS-Bx and to identify the variables influencing this.

Patients and methods

The study included 218 men who were diagnosed with PCa by PB and underwent radical prostatectomy between 2016 and 2023. The patients were grouped based on the biopsy method: 115 underwent TRUS-Bx, and 103 underwent MRI-fusion PB. The histopathological grading of these biopsy approaches was compared with that of radical prostatectomy specimens. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of various criteria on histopathological concordance.

Results

In patients with unfavorable intermediate- and high-risk PCa, MRI-fusion PB showed significantly better concordance with prostatectomy histopathology than TRUS-Bx (73.1% vs. 42.9%, p = 0.018). MRI-fusion PB had a significantly lower downgrading of prostatectomy histopathology than TRUS-Bx in all grade categories. The number of cancer-involved regions of the prostate is an independent predictor for concordance (OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.04-1.52, p = 0.02) and downgrading (OR = 0.46, 95%CI = 0.24-0.83, p = 0.01).

Conclusions

Using an MRI-fusion PB improves histopathological concordance in patients with unfavorable intermediate and high-risk PCa. It reduces the downgrading rate of prostatectomy histopathology compared with TRUS-Bx in all grade categories. The number of cancer-involved regions is an independent predictor of the concordance between biopsy and final histopathology after prostatectomy and post-prostatectomy histopathology downgrading. Our findings could assist in selecting PCa patients for AS and focal treatment based on the histopathology obtained from the MRI-fusion PB.

Value of MRI - T2 Mapping to Differentiate Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer

Standardized reporting of multiparametric prostate MRI (mpMRI) is widespread and follows international standards (Pi-RADS). However, quantitative measurements from mpMRI are not widely comparable. Although T2 mapping sequences can provide repeatable quantitative image measurements and extract reliable imaging biomarkers from mpMRI, they are often time-consuming. We therefore investigated the value of quantitative measurements on a highly accelerated T2 mapping sequence, in order to establish a threshold to differentiate benign from malignant lesions. For this purpose, we evaluated a novel, highly accelerated T2 mapping research sequence that enables high-resolution image acquisition with short acquisition times in everyday clinical practice. In this retrospective single-center study, we included 54 patients with clinically indicated MRI of the prostate and biopsy-confirmed carcinoma (n = 37) or exclusion of carcinoma (n = 17). All patients had received a standard of care biopsy of the prostate, results of which were used to confirm or exclude presence of malignant lesions. We used the linear mixed-effects model-fit by REML to determine the difference between mean values of cancerous tissue and healthy tissue. We found good differentiation between malignant lesions and normal appearing tissue in the peripheral zone based on the mean T2 value. Specifically, the mean T2 value for tissue without malignant lesions was (151.7 ms [95% CI: 146.9-156.5 ms] compared to 80.9 ms for malignant lesions [95% CI: 67.9-79.1 ms]; p < 0.001). Based on this assessment, a limit of 109.2 ms is suggested. Aditionally, a significant correlation was observed between T2 values of the peripheral zone and PI-RADS scores (p = 0.0194). However, no correlation was found between the Gleason Score and the T2 relaxation time. Using REML, we found a difference of -82.7 ms in mean values between cancerous tissue and healthy tissue. We established a cut-off-value of 109.2 ms to accurately differentiate between malignant and non-malignant prostate regions. The addition of T2 mapping sequences to routine imaging could benefit automated lesion detection and facilitate contrast-free multiparametric MRI of the prostate.

The impact of mpMRI-targeted vs systematic biopsy on the risk of prostate cancer downgrading at final pathology

PURPOSE

Although targeted biopsies (TBx) are associated with improved disease assessment, concerns have been raised regarding the risk of prostate cancer (PCa) overgrading due to more accurate biopsy core deployment in the index lesion.

METHODS

We identified 1672 patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) with a positive mpMRI and ISUP ≥ 2 PCa detected via systematic biopsy (SBx) plus TBx. We compared downgrading rates at RP (ISUP 4-5, 3, and 2 at biopsy, to a lower ISUP) for PCa detected via SBx only (group 1), via TBx only (group 2), and eventually for PCa detected with the same ISUP 2-5 at both SBx and TBx (group 3), using multivariable logistic regression models (MVA).

RESULTS

Overall, 12 vs 14 vs 6% (n = 176 vs 227 vs 96) downgrading rates were recorded in group 1 vs group 2 vs group 3, respectively (p < 0.001). At MVA, group 2 was more likely to be downgraded (OR 1.26, p = 0.04), as compared to group 1. Conversely, group 3 was less likely to be downgraded at RP (OR 0.42, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Downgrading rates are highest when PCa is present in TBx only and, especially when the highest grade PCa is diagnosed by TBx cores only. Conversely, downgrading rates are lowest when PCa is identified with the same ISUP through both SBx and TBx. The presence of clinically significant disease at SBx + TBx may indicate a more reliable assessment of the disease at the time of biopsy potentially reducing the risk of downgrading at final pathology.

Gallium-68 Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer Trial (PASPoRT)

BACKGROUND

The use of clinical parameters, including prebiopsy magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), to decide between active surveillance (AS) and active therapy for prostate cancer (PCa) leads to imperfect selection. Additional prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging may improve risk stratification.

OBJECTIVE

To study risk stratification and patient selection for AS with the addition of PSMA PET/CT to standard practice.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A single-centre prospective cohort study (NL69880.100.19) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with PCa who started AS. At diagnosis, all participants had undergone prebiopsy MRI and targeted biopsy for visualised lesions. Patients underwent an additional [68Ga]-PSMA PET/CT and targeted biopsy of all PSMA lesions with a maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) of ≥4 not covered by previous biopsies.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was the number needed to scan (NNS) to detect one patient with upgrading. The study was powered to detect an NNS of 10. Regarding secondary outcomes, univariate logistic regressions analyses were performed on all patients and on the patients who received additional PSMA targeted biopsies on the likelihood of upgrading.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 141 patients were included. Additional PSMA targeted biopsies were performed in 45 (32%) patients. In 13 (9%) patients, upgrading was detected: nine grade group (GG) 2, two GG 3, one GG 4, and one GG 5. The NNS was 11 (95% confidence interval 6-18). Of all participants, PSMA PET/CT and targeted biopsies yielded upgrading most frequently in patients with negative MRI (Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System [PI-RADS] 1-2). Of patients who received additional PSMA targeted biopsies, upgrading was most frequently found in those with higher prostate-specific antigen density and negative MRI. Limitations included the lack of comparison with standard repeat biopsy, no central review of MRI, and possibility of biopsy sampling error.

CONCLUSIONS

PSMA PET/CT can further improve PCa risk stratification and selection for AS patients diagnosed after MRI and targeted biopsies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography and additional targeted prostate biopsies can identify more aggressive prostate cancer cases previously missed in patients recently started with expectant management for favourable-risk prostate cancer.

Impact of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Targeting on Pathologic Upgrading and Downgrading at Prostatectomy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

The evidence supporting multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) targeting for biopsy is nearly exclusively based on biopsy pathologic outcomes. This is problematic, as targeting likely allows preferential identification of small high-grade areas of questionable oncologic significance, raising the likelihood of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of MRI-targeted, systematic, and combined biopsies on radical prostatectomy (RP) grade group concordance.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

PubMed MEDLINE and Cochrane Library were searched from July 2018 to January 2022. Studies that conducted systematic and MRI-targeted prostate biopsies and compared biopsy results with pathology after RP were included. We performed a meta-analysis to assess whether pathologic upgrading and downgrading were influenced by biopsy type and a net-benefit analysis using pooled risk difference estimates.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Both targeted only and combined biopsies were less likely to result in upgrading (odds ratio [OR] vs systematic of 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.77, p < 0.001, and 0.50, 95% CI 0.45-0.55, p < 0.001), respectively). Targeted only and combined biopsies increased the odds of downgrading (1.24 (95% CI 1.05-1.46), p = 0.012, and 1.96 (95% CI 1.68-2.27, p < 0.001) compared with systematic biopsies, respectively. The net benefit of targeted and combined biopsies is 8 and 7 per 100 if harms of up- and downgrading are considered equal, but 7 and -1 per 100 if the harm of downgrading is considered twice that of upgrading.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of MRI-targeting results in lower rates of upgrading as compared to systematic biopsy at RP (27% vs 42%). However, combined MRI-targeted and systematic biopsies are associated with more downgrading at RP (19% v 11% for combined vs systematic). Strong heterogeneity suggests further research into factors that influence the rates of up- and downgrading and that distinguishes clinically relevant from irrelevant grade changes is needed. Until then, the benefits and harms of combined MRI-targeted and systematic biopsies cannot be fully assessed.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We reviewed the ability of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted biopsies to predict cancer grade at prostatectomy. We found that combined MRI-targeted and systematic biopsies result in more cancers being downgraded than systematic biopsies.

External Tertiary-Care-Hospital Validation of the Epidemiological SEER-Based Nomogram Predicting Downgrading in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Treated with Radical Prostatectomy

We aimed to externally validate the SEER-based nomogram used to predict downgrading in biopsied high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) in a contemporary European tertiary-care-hospital cohort. We relied on an institutional tertiary-care database to identify biopsied high-risk prostate cancer patients in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) who underwent RP between January 2014 and December 2022. The model's downgrading performance was evaluated using accuracy and calibration. The net benefit of the nomogram was tested with decision-curve analyses. Overall, 241 biopsied high-risk prostate cancer patients were identified. In total, 51% were downgraded at RP. Moreover, of the 99 patients with a biopsy Gleason pattern of 5, 43% were significantly downgraded to RP Gleason pattern ≤ 4 + 4. The nomogram predicted the downgrading with 72% accuracy. A high level of agreement between the predicted and observed downgrading rates was observed. In the prediction of significant downgrading from a biopsy Gleason pattern of 5 to a RP Gleason pattern ≤ 4 + 4, the accuracy was 71%. Deviations from the ideal predictions were noted for predicted probabilities between 30% and 50%, where the nomogram overestimated the observed rate of significant downgrading. This external validation of the SEER-based nomogram confirmed its ability to predict the downgrading of biopsy high-risk prostate cancer patients and its accurate use for patient counseling in high-volume RP centers.

Adverse upgrading and/or upstaging in contemporary low-risk prostate cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Upgrading and/or upstaging in low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients may represent an indication for active treatment instead of active surveillance (AS). We addressed contemporary upgrading and/or upstaging rates in a large population based-cohort of low-risk PCa patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Whitin the SEER database (2010-2015), NCCN low-risk PCa patients were identified across management modalities: radical prostatectomy (RP), radiotherapy (RT) and non-local treatment (NLT). In RP patients, upgrading and/or upstaging rates were assessed in logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, of 27,901 low-risk PCa patients, 38% underwent RP vs 28% RT vs 34% NLT. RP patients were the youngest and harbored the highest percentage of positive cores and a higher rate of cT2a than NLT. At RP, 46.2% were upgraded to GGG ≥ 2, 6.0% to GGG ≥ 3 and 10.5% harbored nonorgan-confined stage (NOC, pT3-4 or pN1). Of NOC patients, 1.6% harbored GGG ≥ 3, 6.3% harbored GGG2 and 2.6% harbored GGG1. Of pT2 patients, 4.4% harbored GGG ≥ 3, 33.9% harbored GGG2 and 51.3% harbored GGG1. Age, PSA, percentage of positive cores and number of positive cores independently predicted the presence of NOC and/or GGG ≥ 3, but with low accuracy (63.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

In low-risk PCa, critical changes between tumor grade and stage at biopsy vs RP may be expected in very few patients: NOC with GGG ≥ 3 in 1.6% and NOC with GGG2 in 6.3%. Other patients with upgrading and/or upstaging combinations will invariably harbor either pT2 or GGG1 that far less critically affect PCa prognosis.

Nomogram Predicting Downgrading in National Comprehensive Cancer Network High-risk Prostate Cancer Patients Treated with Radical Prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Some high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients may show more favorable Gleason pattern at radical prostatectomy (RP) than at biopsy.

OBJECTIVE

To test whether downgrading could be predicted accurately.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2010-2016), 6690 National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk PCa patients were identified.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES

We randomly split the overall cohort between development and validation cohorts (both n = 3345, 50%). Multivariable logistic regression models used biopsy Gleason, prostate-specific antigen, number of positive prostate biopsy cores, and cT stage to predict downgrading. Accuracy, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) tested the model in the external validation cohort.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Of 6690 patients, 50.3% were downgraded at RP, and of 2315 patients with any biopsy pattern 5, 44.1% were downgraded to RP Gleason pattern ≤4 + 4. Downgrading rates were highest in biopsy Gleason pattern 5 + 5 (84.1%) and lowest in 3 + 4 (4.0%). In the validation cohort, the logistic regression model-derived nomogram predicted downgrading with 71.0% accuracy, with marginal departures (±3.3%) from ideal predictions in calibration. In DCA, a net benefit throughout all threshold probabilities was recorded, relative to treat-all or treat-none strategies and an algorithm based on an average downgrading rate of 50.3%. All steps were repeated in the subgroup with any biopsy Gleason pattern 5, to predict RP Gleason pattern ≤4 + 4. Here, a second nomogram (n = 2315) yielded 68.0% accuracy, maximal departures from ideal prediction of ±5.7%, and virtually the same DCA pattern as the main nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Downgrading affects half of all high-risk PCa patients. Its presence may be predicted accurately and may help with better treatment planning.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Downgrading occurs in every second high-risk prostate cancer patients. The nomograms developed by us can predict these probabilities accurately.

Assessing the impact of MRI based diagnostics on pre-treatment disease classification and prognostic model performance in men diagnosed with new prostate cancer from an unscreened population

Introduction

Pre-treatment risk and prognostic groups are the cornerstone for deciding management in non-metastatic prostate cancer. All however, were developed in the pre-MRI era. Here we compared categorisation of cancers using either only clinical parameters or with MRI enhanced information in men referred for suspected prostate cancer from an unscreened population.

Patient and methods

Data from men referred from primary care to our diagnostic service and with both clinical (digital rectal examination [DRE] and systematic biopsies) and MRI enhanced attributes (MRI stage and combined systematic/targeted biopsies) were used for this study. Clinical vs MRI data were contrasted for clinico-pathological and risk group re-distribution using the European Association of Urology (EAU), American Urological Association (AUA) and UK National Institute for Health Care Excellence (NICE) Cambridge Prognostic Group (CPG) models. Differences were retrofitted to a population cohort with long-term prostate cancer mortality (PCM) outcomes to simulate impact on model performance. We further contrasted individualised overall survival (OS) predictions using the Predict Prostate algorithm.

Results

Data from 370 men were included (median age 66y). Pre-biopsy MRI stage reassignments occurred in 7.8% (versus DRE). Image-guided biopsies increased Grade Group 2 and ≥ Grade Group 3 assignments in 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. The main change in risk groups was more high-risk cancers (6.2% increase in the EAU and AUA system, 4.3% increase in CPG4 and 1.9% CPG5). When extrapolated to a historical population-based cohort (n = 10,139) the redistribution resulted in generally lower concordance indices for PCM. The 5-tier NICE-CPG system outperformed the 4-tier AUA and 3-tier EAU models (C Index 0.70 versus 0.65 and 0.64). Using an individualised prognostic model, changes in predicted OS were small (median difference 1% and 2% at 10- and 15-years’ respectively). Similarly, estimated treatment survival benefit changes were minimal (1% at both 10- and 15-years’ time frame).

Conclusion

MRI guided diagnostics does change pre-treatment risk groups assignments but the overall prognostic impact appears modest in men referred from unscreened populations. Particularly, when using more granular tiers or individualised prognostic models. Existing risk and prognostic models can continue to be used to counsel men about treatment option until long term survival outcomes are available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09955-w.

Non-organ confined stage and upgrading rates in exclusive PSA high-risk prostate cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The pathological stage of prostate cancer with high-risk prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, but otherwise favorable and/or intermediate risk characteristics (clinical T-stage, Gleason Grade group at biopsy [B-GGG]) is unknown. We hypothesized that a considerable proportion of such patients will exhibit clinically meaningful GGG upgrading or non-organ confined (NOC) stage at radical prostatectomy (RP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010-2015) we identified RP-patients with cT1c-stage and B-GGG1, B-GGG2, or B-GGG3 and PSA 20-50 ng/ml. Rates of GGG4 or GGG5 and/or rates of NOC stage (≥ pT3 and/or pN1) were analyzed. Subsequently, separate univariable and multivariable logistic regression models tested for predictors of NOC stage and upgrading at RP.

RESULTS

Of 486 assessable patients, 134 (28%) exhibited B-GGG1, 209 (43%) B-GGG2, and 143 (29%) B-GGG3, respectively. The overall upgrading and NOC rates were 11% and 51% for a combined rate of upgrading and/or NOC stage of 53%. In multivariable logistic regression models predicting upgrading, only B-GGG3 was an independent predictor (odds ratio [OR]: 5.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.21-14.19; p < 0.001). Conversely, 33%-66% (OR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.42-3.95; p = 0.001) and >66% of positive biopsy cores (OR: 4.85; 95% CI: 2.84-8.42; p < 0.001), as well as B-GGG2 and B-GGG3 were independent predictors for NOC stage (all p ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In cT1c-stage patients with high-risk PSA baseline, but low- to intermediate risk B-GGG, the rate of upgrading to GGG4 or GGG5 is low (11%). However, NOC stage is found in the majority (51%) and can be independently predicted with percentage of positive cores at biopsy and B-GGG.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Pathological Upgrade From Combined Transperineal Systematic and MRI-Targeted Prostate Biopsy to Final Pathology: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the pathological concordance from combined systematic and MRI-targeted prostate biopsy to final pathology and to verify the effectiveness of a machine learning-based model with targeted biopsy (TB) features in predicting pathological upgrade.

Materials and Methods

All patients in this study underwent prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), transperineal systematic plus transperineal targeted prostate biopsy under local anesthesia, and robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RARP) for prostate cancer (PCa) sequentially from October 2016 to February 2020 in two referral centers. For cores with cancer, grade group (GG) and Gleason score were determined by using the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) guidelines. Four supervised machine learning methods were employed, including two base classifiers and two ensemble learning-based classifiers. In all classifiers, the training set was 395 of 565 (70%) patients, and the test set was the remaining 170 patients. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The Gini index was used to evaluate the importance of all features and to figure out the most contributed features. A nomogram was established to visually predict the risk of upgrading. Predicted probability was a prevalence rate calculated by a proposed nomogram.

Results

A total of 515 patients were included in our cohort. The combined biopsy had a better concordance of postoperative histopathology than a systematic biopsy (SB) only (48.15% vs. 40.19%, p = 0.012). The combined biopsy could significantly reduce the upgrading rate of postoperative pathology, in comparison to SB only (23.30% vs. 39.61%, p < 0.0001) or TB only (23.30% vs. 40.19%, p < 0.0001). The most common pathological upgrade occurred in ISUP GG1 and GG2, accounting for 53.28% and 20.42%, respectively. All machine learning methods had satisfactory predictive efficacy. The overall accuracy was 0.703, 0.768, 0.794, and 0.761 for logistic regression, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and support vector machine, respectively. TB-related features were among the most contributed features of a prediction model for upgrade prediction.

Conclusion

The combined effect of SB plus TB led to a better pathological concordance rate and less upgrading from biopsy to RP. Machine learning models with features of TB to predict PCa GG upgrading have a satisfactory predictive efficacy.

Up- and downgrading in single intermediate-risk positive biopsy core prostate cancer

Background

Up- and/or downgrading rates in single intermediate-risk positive biopsy core are unknown.

Methods

We identified single intermediate-risk (Gleason grade group (GGG) 2/GGG3) positive biopsy core prostate cancer patients (≤ cT2c and PSA ≤ 20 ng/mL) within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010–2015). Subsequently, separate uni- and multivariable logistic regression models tested for independent predictors of up- and downgrading.

Results

Of 1,328 assessable patients with single core positive intermediate-risk prostate cancer at biopsy, 972 (73%) harbored GGG2 versus 356 (27%) harbored GGG3. Median PSA (5.5 vs 5.7; p = 0.3), median age (62 vs 63 years; p = 0.07) and cT1-stage (77 vs 75%; p = 0.3) did not differ between GGG2 and GGG3 patients. Of individuals with single GGG2 positive biopsy core, 191 (20%) showed downgrading to GGG1 versus 35 (4%) upgrading to GGG4 or GGG5 at RP. Of individuals with single GGG3 positive biopsy core, 36 (10%) showed downgrading to GGG1 versus 42 (12%) significant upgrading to GGG4 or GGG5 at RP. In multivariable logistic regression models, elevated PSA (10–20 ng/mL) was an independent predictor of upgrading to GGG4/GGG5 in single GGG3 positive biopsy core patients (OR:2.89; 95%-CI: 1.31–6.11; p = 0.007).

Conclusion

In single GGG2 positive biopsy core patients, downgrading was four times more often recorded compared to upgrading. Conversely, in single GGG3 positive biopsy core patients, up- and downgrading rates were comparable and should be expected in one out of ten patients.