Taylor's Law in Innovation Processes

The dynamics of higher-order novelties

Studying how we explore the world in search of novelties is key to understand the mechanisms that can lead to new discoveries. Previous studies analyzed novelties in various exploration processes, defining them as the first appearance of an element. However, novelties can also be generated by combining what is already known. We hence define higher-order novelties as the first time two or more elements appear together, and we introduce higher-order Heaps' exponents as a way to characterize their pace of discovery. Through extensive analysis of real-world data, we find that processes with the same pace of discovery, as measured by the standard Heaps' exponent, can instead differ at higher orders. We then propose to model an exploration process as a random walk on a network in which the possible connections between elements evolve in time. The model reproduces the empirical properties of higher-order novelties, revealing how the network we explore changes over time along with the exploration process.

Interacting innovation processes

In this work, we introduce a general model for a collection of innovation processes in order to model and analyze the interaction among them. We provide theoretical results, analytically proven, and we show how the proposed model fits the behaviors observed in some real data sets (from Reddit and Gutenberg). It is worth mentioning that the given applications are only examples of the potentialities of the proposed model and related results: due to its abstractness and generality, it can be applied to many interacting innovation processes.

Twitter as an innovation process with damping effect

In the existing literature about innovation processes, the proposed models often satisfy the Heaps' law, regarding the rate at which novelties appear, and the Zipf's law, that states a power law behavior for the frequency distribution of the elements. However, there are empirical cases far from showing a pure power law behavior and such a deviation is mostly present for elements with high frequencies. We explain this phenomenon by means of a suitable "damping" effect in the probability of a repetition of an old element. We introduce an extremely general model, whose key element is the update function, that can be suitably chosen in order to reproduce the behaviour exhibited by the empirical data. In particular, we explicit the update function for some Twitter data sets and show great performances with respect to Heaps' law and, above all, with respect to the fitting of the frequency-rank plots for low and high frequencies. Moreover, we also give other examples of update functions, that are able to reproduce the behaviors empirically observed in other contexts.