On Epistemics in Expected Free Energy for Linear Gaussian State Space Models

Realizing Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part II: Variational Message Updates

The free energy principle (FEP) describes (biological) agents as minimizing a variational free energy (FE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. Active inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that describes how agents explore and exploit their environment by minimizing an expected FE objective. In two related papers, we describe a scalable, epistemic approach to synthetic AIF by message passing on free-form Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs). A companion paper (part I of this article; Koudahl et al., 2023) introduces a constrained FFG (CFFG) notation that visually represents (generalized) FE objectives for AIF. This article (part II) derives message-passing algorithms that minimize (generalized) FE objectives on a CFFG by variational calculus. A comparison between simulated Bethe and generalized FE agents illustrates how the message-passing approach to synthetic AIF induces epistemic behavior on a T-maze navigation task. Extension of the T-maze simulation to learning goal statistics and a multiagent bargaining setting illustrate how this approach encourages reuse of nodes and updates in alternative settings. With a full message-passing account of synthetic AIF agents, it becomes possible to derive and reuse message updates across models and move closer to industrial applications of synthetic AIF.

A Bayesian Surprise Approach in Designing Cognitive Radar for Autonomous Driving

This article proposes the Bayesian surprise as the main methodology that drives the cognitive radar to estimate a target’s future state (i.e., velocity, distance) from noisy measurements and execute a decision to minimize the estimation error over time. The research aims to demonstrate whether the cognitive radar as an autonomous system can modify its internal model (i.e., waveform parameters) to gain consecutive informative measurements based on the Bayesian surprise. By assuming that the radar measurements are constructed from linear Gaussian state-space models, the paper applies Kalman filtering to perform state estimation for a simple vehicle-following scenario. According to the filter’s estimate, the sensor measures the contribution of prospective waveforms—which are available from the sensor profile library—to state estimation and selects the one that maximizes the expectation of Bayesian surprise. Numerous experiments examine the estimation performance of the proposed cognitive radar for single-target tracking in practical highway and urban driving environments. The robustness of the proposed method is compared to the state-of-the-art for various error measures. Results indicate that the Bayesian surprise outperforms its competitors with respect to the mean square relative error when one-step and multiple-step planning is considered.