Outage Estimation in Electric Power Distribution Systems Using a Neural Network Ensemble

Machine Learning Model Development to Predict Power Outage Duration (POD): A Case Study for Electric Utilities

In the face of increasing climate variability and the complexities of modern power grids, managing power outages in electric utilities has emerged as a critical challenge. This paper introduces a novel predictive model employing machine learning algorithms, including decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Leveraging historical sensors-based and non-sensors-based outage data from a Turkish electric utility company, the model demonstrates adaptability to diverse grid structures, considers meteorological and non-meteorological outage causes, and provides real-time feedback to customers to effectively address the problem of power outage duration. Using the XGBoost algorithm with the minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) feature selection attained 98.433% accuracy in predicting outage durations, better than the state-of-the-art methods showing 85.511% accuracy on average over various datasets, a 12.922% improvement. This paper contributes a practical solution to enhance outage management and customer communication, showcasing the potential of machine learning to transform electric utility responses and improve grid resilience and reliability.

Reliability Analysis of MV Electric Distribution Networks Including Distributed Generation and ICT Infrastructure

In recent years, the increased distributed generation (DG) capacity in electric distribution systems has been observed. Therefore, it is necessary to research existing structures of distribution networks as well as to develop new (future) system structures. There are many works on the reliability of distribution systems with installed DG sources. This paper deals with a reliability analysis for both present and future medium voltage (MV) electric distribution system structures. The impact of DG technology used and energy source location on the power supply reliability has been analyzed. The reliability models of electrical power devices, conventional and renewable energy sources as well as information and communications technology (ICT) components have been proposed. Main contribution of this paper are the results of performed calculations, which have been analyzed for specific system structures (two typical present network structures and two future network structures), using detailed information on DG types, their locations and power capacities, as well as distribution system automation applied (automatic stand-by switching on—ASS and automatic power restoration—APR). The reliability of the smart grid consisting of the distribution network and the coupled communications network was simulated and assessed. The observations and conclusions based on calculation results have been made. More detailed modeling and consideration of system automation of distribution grids with DG units coupled with the communication systems allows the design and application of more reliable MV network structures.