Evolution of Global Food Trade Patterns and Its Implications for Food Security Based on Complex Network Analysis

Unpacking the Global Rice Trade Network: Centrality, Structural Holes, and the Nexus of Food Insecurity

The challenging international landscape and exacerbated extreme weather conditions contribute to the instability of global grain trade, complicating its impact on food security. This complexity is particularly pronounced for varieties like rice, which are heavily affected by policy-driven trade restrictions. There is insufficient research on how a country's rice trade characteristics affect food security. A network analysis approach is adopted to intricately dissect the structural characteristics of rice trade. To explore causality with food insecurity, this paper chooses structural holes and centrality as representatives of trade network characteristics and regresses them on the food insecurity indicator. With cross-national data spanning over 30 years, the network analysis provides a clear portrayal of the dynamic changes in international rice trade. The overall resilience of the trade network has increased, but specific countries' vulnerability has also risen. Unlike the changing trends in features observed in grain and food trade networks, there is a notable intensification in the imbalance of power distribution in the rice trade network compared to over 30 years ago. The panel data regression results show that constraint, indicating the scarcity of structural holes or connections to stronger trading partners, significantly and positively influences a country's level of food insecurity. Based on these findings, the policy proposal for importing countries emphasizes creating strategic trade connections. By choosing appropriate trade partners that reduce constraint, food security can be enhanced, even without improvements in other conditions.

Local food procurement by hospitals: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Local food procurement by hospitals is gaining traction as governments and advocacy groups seek to influence food systems and strengthen local communities, but there is little empirical evidence as to its practical application or efficacy. The aims of this review were to describe the extent, range and nature of local food procurement models in healthcare foodservices, and to understand the barriers and enablers to implementation, including from the perspective of stakeholders across the supply chain.

METHOD

A scoping review was conducted following the protocol published in the Open Science Framework Registration (DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/T3AX2). Five electronic databases were searched for the following concepts: 'hospital foodservice', 'local food procurement practices', 'the extent, range and nature' and/or 'the barriers and enablers of procurement'. Eligible peer-reviewed original research published in English from the year 2000 was included following a two-step selection process.

RESULTS

The final library included nine studies. Most studies (7 of 9) were from the United States. Three studies used survey methods and reported high rates (58%-91%) of US hospital participation in local food procurement. Studies offered minimal description of local procurement models, but two models, conventional ('on-contract') or off-contract, were typically used. Barriers to local food procurement included restricted access to suitable local food supply, limited kitchen resources and inadequate technology to trace local food purchase thereby limiting evaluation capabilities. Enablers included organisational support, passionate champions and opportunistic, incremental change.

CONCLUSION

There is a paucity of peer-reviewed studies describing local food procurement by hospitals. Details of local food procurement models were generally lacking: categorisable as either purchases made 'on-contract' via conventional means or 'off-contract'. If hospital foodservices are to increase their local food procurement, they require access to a suitable, reliable and traceable supply, that acknowledges their complexity and budgetary constraints.

Online Reputation for Food Sector Exporters in the B2B Context: The Importance of Sustainability

Food exporting companies play a fundamental role in the development of international trade. However, the conceptualization and measurement of their online corporate reputation has not been extensively studied in Business to Business markets, unlike in Business to Consumer contexts. The aim of this research is to identify the variables that determine the online reputation of food companies operating in B2B markets, and to analyze their relationship with the volume of food exports. For this purpose, a three-stage quantitative and qualitative study has been developed, based on in-depth interviews with experts from export organizations and managers of Peruvian food exporting companies, the estimation of an Advanced Sentiment Analysis, the construction of a Total Online Reputation Index (TOR), and the development of regression analysis. The study has identified 13 variables that affect the online reputation of food exporting companies and indicates that the presence of sustainability content on their website and the number of pages visited positively affect the volume of food exports. Moreover, the TOR could have a significant explanatory capacity with respect to company exports. These results constitute a reference guide for both companies in the sector and official export agencies, highlighting the critical aspects to promote their exports.

Tracing global N2O emission mitigation strategies through trade networks

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and the most important ozone depleting substance. But how global N2O emissions are connected through the interwoven trade network remains unclear. This paper attempts to specifically trace anthropogenic N2O emissions via global trade networks using a multi-regional input-output model and a complex network model. Nearly one quarter of global N2O emissions can be linked to products traded internationally in 2014. The top 20 economies contribute to about 70% of the total embodied N2O emission flows. In terms of the trade embodied emissions classified by sources, cropland-, livestock-, chemistry-, and other industries-related embodied N2O emissions account for 41.9%, 31.2%, 19.9%, and 7.0%, respectively. Clustering structure of the global N2O flow network is revealed by the regional integration of 5 trading communities. Hub economies such as mainland China and the USA are collectors and distributors, and some emerging countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia, also exhibit dominance in different kinds of networks. This study selects the cattle sector to further verify that low production-side emission intensities and trade cooperation can lead to N2O emission reduction. In view of the impact of trade networks on global N2O emissions, achieving N2O emission reduction calls for vigorous international cooperation.

Understanding Global Rice Trade Flows: Network Evolution and Implications

Rice holds a significant position as one of the world's most important food crops, and international trade plays a crucial role in regulating rice supply and demand. Analyzing the structural evolution of the global rice trade from a network perspective is paramount for understanding the global rice-trade supply chain and ensuring global food security. This study utilizes international rice-trade data from 2000 to 2021 and employs various network analysis methods to depict the spatial and temporal patterns of the global rice trade, examines the network topologies of the global rice trade, and reveals the impacts of its evolution on food security. The research findings are as follows: (1) Global rice-trade scale has increased over time, indicating a relatively stable development with the gradual formation of complex rice-trade networks. Since 2000, the global rice-trade networks have shown increasing density characterized by Asia as the primary export source and Africa as an important import market. (2) Network analysis indicators demonstrate a growing trend in the size and density of the global rice-trade networks, along with increasingly optimized network structures and improved network connectivity efficiency. Core positions in the networks are occupied by Thailand, Vietnam, India, China, Pakistan, and the United States, while import partners in European and American countries, such as Germany, France, UK, Canada, The Netherlands, and Belgium, show greater diversification. Asia, Europe, and North America form agglomeration regions for rice-exporting countries. Additionally, importing and exporting countries in the global rice-trade networks exhibit certain geographical concentrations. (3) The network backbones of the global rice trade are continuously evolving and being refined, characterized by dominant large rice-exporting countries in Asia and prominent developed countries in Europe and North America. The backbone structures revolve around India as the core, Thailand and Pakistan as the second cores, and critical nodes represented by Italy, the United States, China, and Vietnam. Regional backbone networks have also formed in Asia and Europe. Based on these findings, this paper clarifies the complex network characteristics of the global rice trade and offers insights to promote international rice-trade cooperation and safeguard global food security.

Unraveling the key drivers of community composition in the agri-food trade network

In the complex global food system, the dynamics associated with international food trade have become crucial determinants of food security. In this paper, we employ a community detection approach along with a supervised learning technique to explore the evolution of communities in the agri-food trade network and to identify key factors influencing their composition. By leveraging a large dataset that includes both volume and monetary value of trades, we identify similarities between countries and uncover the primary drivers that shape trade dynamics over time. The analysis also takes into account the impact of evolving climate conditions on food production and trading. The results highlight how the network's topological structure is continuously evolving, influencing the composition of communities over time. Alongside geographical proximity and geo-political relations, our analysis identifies sustainability, climate and food nutrition aspects as emerging factors that contribute to explaining trade relationships. These findings shed light on the intricate interactions within the global food trade system and provide valuable insights into the factors affecting its stability.

Genomic diversity and epidemiological significance of non-typhoidal Salmonella found in retail food collected in Norfolk, UK

Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis. Although many countries have implemented whole genome sequencing (WGS) of NTS, there is limited knowledge on NTS diversity on food and its contribution to human disease. In this study, the aim was to characterise the NTS genomes from retail foods in a particular region of the UK and assess the contribution to human NTS infections. Raw food samples were collected at retail in a repeated cross-sectional design in Norfolk, UK, including chicken (n=311), leafy green (n=311), pork (n=311), prawn (n=279) and salmon (n=157) samples. Up to eight presumptive NTS isolates per positive sample underwent WGS and were compared to publicly available NTS genomes from UK human cases. NTS was isolated from chicken (9.6 %), prawn (2.9 %) and pork (1.3 %) samples and included 14 serovars, of which Salmonella Infantis and Salmonella Enteritidis were the most common. The S. Enteritidis isolates were only isolated from imported chicken. No antimicrobial resistance determinants were found in prawn isolates, whilst 5.1 % of chicken and 0.64 % of pork samples contained multi-drug resistant NTS. The maximum number of pairwise core non-recombinant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) amongst isolates from the same sample was used to measure diversity and most samples had a median of two SNPs (range: 0-251). NTS isolates that were within five SNPs to clinical UK isolates belonged to specific serovars: S. Enteritidis and S. Infantis (chicken), and S. I 4,[5],12:i- (pork and chicken). Most NTS isolates that were closely related to human-derived isolates were obtained from imported chicken, but further epidemiological data are required to assess definitively the probable source of the human cases. Continued WGS surveillance of Salmonella on retail food involving multiple isolates from each sample is necessary to capture the diversity of Salmonella and determine the relative importance of different sources of human disease.

Impact of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict on Global Food Crops

The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has been proven to cause significant losses of life and goods on both sides. This may have potentially impacted the agricultural sector. This study examines the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global food situation. We performed a descriptive analysis and literature review to answer this objective. Russia and Ukraine play essential roles in world food production and trade. However, the war has disrupted food production in Ukraine. Estimated Ukrainian wheat, soybean, and maize production in 2022–2023 fell precipitously. On the other hand, Russian production of these three food products shows positive growth during the same period. Furthermore, the global supply chain and food trade are hampered, causing an increase in the world’s food prices. From March to May 2022, the average global price of wheat, soybeans, and maize increased dramatically compared to during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, this poses a danger to global food security, particularly for low-income countries that depend heavily on food imports from both countries. Therefore, all countries must be prepared for the possibility that the Sustainable Development Goals cannot be achieved.

Effects of time-varying habitat connectivity on metacommunity persistence

Network structure or connectivity patterns are critical in determining collective dynamics among interacting species in ecosystems. Conventional research on species persistence in spatial populations has focused on static network structure, though most real network structures change in time, forming time-varying networks. This raises the question, in metacommunities, how does the pattern of synchrony vary with temporal evolution in the network structure. The synchronous dynamics among species are known to reduce metacommunity persistence. Here we consider a time-varying metacommunity small-world network consisting of a chaotic three-species food chain oscillator in each patch or node. The rate of change in the network connectivity is determined by the natural frequency or its subharmonics of the constituent oscillator to allow sufficient time for the evolution of species in between successive rewirings. We find that over a range of coupling strengths and rewiring periods, even higher rewiring probabilities drive a network from asynchrony towards synchrony. Moreover, in networks with a small rewiring period, an increase in average degree (more connected networks) pushes the asynchronous dynamics to synchrony. On the other hand, in networks with a low average degree, a higher rewiring period drives the synchronous dynamics to asynchrony resulting in increased species persistence. Our results also follow the calculation of synchronization time and are robust across other ecosystem models. Overall, our study opens the possibility of developing temporal connectivity strategies to increase species persistence in ecological networks.

Connected and extracted: Understanding how centrality in the global wheat supply chain affects global hunger using a network approach

While global food trade has allowed countries to buffer against domestic food production shortfalls and gain access to larger markets, engaging in trade has also opened economies up to shocks and increased extraction of food resources. With this research, we analyze how the global grain network influences country-level nourishment, while controlling for per capita land and food production. First, we model the trade network structure of the global wheat supply chain to measure the centrality or positionality of countries. We use spatial regression analysis to assess the impact of trade networks, volume, purchasing power, production capacity and geography on undernourishment. We find that the six countries most central to the global grain trade by betweenness and eigenvector centralities account for more than half of all wheat exports globally by volume. The centrality of these countries as opposed to volume of wheat produced or traded, determines their influence in the wheat supply chain network. The parametric component of our analysis confirms that trade, and centrality have significant implications for national levels of nourishment. Our findings suggest that for countries with low purchasing power, increasing centrality allows improvements in nourishment levels but for countries with very high purchasing power, increasing centrality can increase hunger outcomes. To counteract perturbations and shortfalls such as those being experienced currently in the globalized food system, local and regional governments may consider refocusing on regional and local based food systems.

Impact of Extreme Weather Disasters on China’s Barley Industry under the Background of Trade Friction—Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model

The world has entered a compound risk era with multiple crises, and the adverse impact of trade friction and extreme weather disasters on China’s barley import has become increasingly prominent. In this context, this study uses superimposed epoch analysis and partial equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of extreme weather disasters in China’s major barley-exporting countries on China’s barley industry in the course of China–Australia trade friction. The results show that: (1) extreme weather disaster caused barley production in France and Canada to decrease by 7.95% and 18.36% respectively; (2) when the two external shocks occur at the same time, China’s barley import volume tends to decline compared with the basic scenario, the import price rises sharply, there are certain trade-diverting effects in barley import, and China’s imports from countries not affected by extreme weather disasters will increase to a certain extent; (3) China’s barley production remains at a low rate of growth and is vulnerable to external shocks, facing certain import risks. This study provides important policy implications for preventing import risks and ensuring the sufficient supply of domestic barley.

Characterizing the Structural Evolution of Cereal Trade Networks in the Belt and Road Regions: A Network Analysis Approach

Cereal trade is essential for economic and commercial cooperation among countries along the "Belt and Road" (BRI). It helps ensure food security and contributes to building a community of interests and destinies for the BRI countries. Based on the UN Comtrade database, this study, using a network analysis approach, investigates the structural characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of cereal trade networks among the "Belt and Road" countries. Results show that: (1) The cereal trade among the BRI countries has formed well-connected and complex trade networks, and the "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly promoted cereal trade networks among the BRI countries. (2) The backbone structures of cereal trade networks along the BRI are in geographical proximity. India, Russia, and Ukraine are the most important trading partners and absolute core nodes in the trade networks, influencing the entire cereal trade networks. (3) The BRI cereal trade networks exhibit significant core-periphery structures, with considerable power asymmetries between the countries reflecting food supply and demand differences. In general, the BRI cereal trade networks have developed from relatively diversified to polarized. Supply chains in the cereal trade network are dominated by a few large countries and are fragile, with weak resilience and low resistance to risk. Therefore, governments should continue to strengthen regional cooperation, optimize cereal trade network structure, enhance their reserve capacity, and build a stronger system to guarantee food security and prevent risk. All these measures will support the food security of the "Belt and Road" countries.

Triad Analysis of Global Energy Trade Networks and Implications for Energy Trade Stability

An international push to decarbonize economies has initiated a major transition in the global energy system and has begun to disrupt the intricate network of energy trade. As trade patterns begin to reconfigure, it is important that policy makers understand how vulnerabilities of the existing network may present obstacles to a smooth energy transition. We analyze the topology of the global energy trade network in aggregate, for various energy commodities, and for individual countries. Using the network science technique of triad analysis, which examines the prevalence of 3-node subnetworks in a target network, we calculate triad significance profiles for each network. We then analyze whether various triads are under- or over-represented in our networks and find that triads associated with stability appear more frequently than expected, whereas triads associated with conflict appear less frequently than expected. We further find that the global energy trade network is quite robust against disruptions, maintaining its topological characteristics even after random removal of 80% of the network’s nodes. However, when analyzing individual countries, we find that some exhibit a high prevalence of unstable triads or a low prevalence of stabilizing triads, suggesting that vulnerabilities in global energy trade are more pronounced in some countries than others.