Identifying Robust Risk Factors for Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: An Evolutionary Machine Learning Approach

Survival analysis on subchondral bone length for total knee replacement

OBJECTIVE

Use subchondral bone length (SBL), a new MRI-derived measure that reflects the extent of cartilage loss and bone flattening, to predict the risk of progression to total knee replacement (TKR).

METHODS

We employed baseline MRI data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), focusing on 760 men and 1214 women with bone marrow lesions (BMLs) and joint space narrowing (JSN) scores, to predict the progression to TKR. To minimize bias from analyzing both knees of a participant, only the knee with a higher Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade was considered, given its greater potential need for TKR. We utilized the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models, incorporating raw and normalized values of SBL, JSN, and BML as predictors. The study included subgroup analyses for different demographics and clinical characteristics, using models for raw and normalized SBL (merged, femoral, tibial), BML (merged, femoral, tibial), and JSN (medial and lateral compartments). Model performance was evaluated using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), Brier score, and Concordance index to gauge accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. Knee joint and region-level analyses were conducted to determine the effectiveness of SBL, JSN, and BML in predicting TKR risk.

RESULTS

The SBL model, incorporating data from both the femur and tibia, demonstrated a predictive capacity for TKR that closely matched the performance of the BML score and the JSN grade. The Concordance index of the SBL model was 0.764, closely mirroring the BML's 0.759 and slightly below JSN's 0.788. The Brier score for the SBL model stood at 0.069, showing comparability with BML's 0.073 and a minor difference from JSN's 0.067. Regarding the AUC, the SBL model achieved 0.803, nearly identical to BML's 0.802 and slightly lower than JSN's 0.827.

CONCLUSION

SBL's capacity to predict the risk of progression to TKR highlights its potential as an effective imaging biomarker for knee osteoarthritis.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis: A Comprehensive Analysis

Prediction of the progression of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a very challenging task. Early identification of risk factors plays a vital role in diagnosing KOA. Thus, machine learning models are used to predict the progression of KOA. The purpose of the present study is to find out the efficacy of various machine learning models to identify the progression of KOA. A comprehensive literature search was conducted in international databases like Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. Studies published from the year 2010 to May 2023 on the machine learning approach to diagnose KOA were included in the study. A total of 15 studies were selected and analyzed which included machine learning as an approach to diagnose KOA. The present study found that machine learning methods are the best methods to diagnose KOA early. Various methods like deep learning, machine learning, convolutional neural network (CNN), and multi-layer perceptron showed good accuracy in diagnosing its progression. The machine learning approach has attracted significant interest from scientists and researchers and has led to a new automated approach to diagnose KOA, which will help in designing treatment approaches.

Barriers and Challenges to Self-Care among Older Adults with Knee Osteoarthritis: A Qualitative Study

Background

Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a chronic disease causing disability in older adults. Self-care is an effective strategy for KOA management in older adults and clinicians have shown increased interest regarding the challenges of self-care activities in these patients. The present study aimed to explore the perception of older adults' patients with KOA regarding barriers and challenges faced in their self-care management.

Methods

In this qualitative study, data were collected using purposeful sampling and in-depth semi-structured interviews with 22 older adults with KOA, their first-degree caregivers, and medical team members in Mashhad, northeast Iran, from April to December 2020. All the interviews were transcribed verbatim. Interviews continued until reaching data saturation. All interviews were recorded. Data analysis was done using conventional content analysis according to the technique described by Graneheim and Lundman. The MAXQDA (Version 10) was used to organize, code, and manage the data.

Findings

Three main themes (confusion, confrontation with increasing stresses, and social rupture) were emerged as the barriers and challenges to self-care among older adults with KOA.

Conclusions

The results of this study provide a broad range of context-specific of barriers and challenges to self-care among older adults with KOA, which can be used for designing and implementing appropriate interventions to improve self-care in these patients.

Biclustering reveals potential knee OA phenotypes in exploratory analyses: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Objective

To apply biclustering, a methodology originally developed for analysis of gene expression data, to simultaneously cluster observations and clinical features to explore candidate phenotypes of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) for the first time.

Methods

Data from the baseline Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) visit were cleaned, transformed, and standardized as indicated (leaving 6461 knees with 86 features). Biclustering produced submatrices of the overall data matrix, representing similar observations across a subset of variables. Statistical validation was determined using the novel SigClust procedure. After identifying biclusters, relationships with key outcome measures were assessed, including progression of radiographic KOA, total knee arthroplasty, loss of joint space width, and worsening Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores, over 96 months of follow-up.

Results

The final analytic set included 6461 knees from 3330 individuals (mean age 61 years, mean body mass index 28 kg/m², 57% women and 86% White). We identified 6 mutually exclusive biclusters characterized by different feature profiles at baseline, particularly related to symptoms and function. Biclusters represented overall better (#1), similar (#2, 3, 6), and poorer (#4, 5) prognosis compared to the overall cohort of knees, respectively. In general, knees in biclusters #4 and 5 had more structural progression (based on Kellgren-Lawrence grade, total knee arthroplasty, and loss of joint space width) but tended to have an improvement in WOMAC pain scores over time. In contrast, knees in bicluster #1 had less incident and progressive KOA, fewer total knee arthroplasties, less loss of joint space width, and stable pain scores compared with the overall cohort.

Significance

We identified six biclusters within the baseline OAI dataset which have varying relationships with key outcomes in KOA. Such biclusters represent potential phenotypes within the larger cohort and may suggest subgroups at greater or lesser risk of progression over time.

Explainable machine learning for knee osteoarthritis diagnosis based on a novel fuzzy feature selection methodology

Knee Osteoarthritis (ΚΟΑ) is a degenerative joint disease of the knee that results from the progressive loss of cartilage. Due to KOA’s multifactorial nature and the poor understanding of its pathophysiology, there is a need for reliable tools that will reduce diagnostic errors made by clinicians. The existence of public databases has facilitated the advent of advanced analytics in KOA research however the heterogeneity of the available data along with the observed high feature dimensionality make this diagnosis task difficult. The objective of the present study is to provide a robust Feature Selection (FS) methodology that could: (i) handle the multidimensional nature of the available datasets and (ii) alleviate the defectiveness of existing feature selection techniques towards the identification of important risk factors which contribute to KOA diagnosis. For this aim, we used multidimensional data obtained from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database for individuals without or with KOA. The proposed fuzzy ensemble feature selection methodology aggregates the results of several FS algorithms (filter, wrapper and embedded ones) based on fuzzy logic. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was evaluated using an extensive experimental setup that involved multiple competing FS algorithms and several well-known ML models. A 73.55% classification accuracy was achieved by the best performing model (Random Forest classifier) on a group of twenty-one selected risk factors. Explainability analysis was finally performed to quantify the impact of the selected features on the model’s output thus enhancing our understanding of the rationale behind the decision-making mechanism of the best model.

Identification of most important features based on a fuzzy ensemble technique: Evaluation on joint space narrowing progression in knee osteoarthritis patients

OBJECTIVE

Feature selection (FS) is a crucial and at the same time challenging processing step that aims to reduce the dimensionality of complex classification or regression problems. Various techniques have been proposed in the literature to address this challenge with emphasis to medical applications. However, each one of the existing FS algorithms come with its own advantages and disadvantages introducing a certain level of bias.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To avoid bias and alleviate the defectiveness of single feature selection results, an ensemble FS methodology is proposed in this paper that aggregates the results of several FS algorithms (filter, wrapper and embedded ones). Fuzzy logic is employed to combine multiple feature importance scores thus leading to a more robust selection of informative features. The proposed fuzzy ensemble FS methodology was applied on the problem of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) prediction with special emphasis on the progression of joint space narrowing (JSN). The proposed FS methodology was integrated into an end-to-end machine learning pipeline and a thorough experimental evaluation was conducted using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) database. Several classifiers were investigated for their suitability in the task of JSN prediction and the best performing model was then post-hoc analyzed by using the SHAP method.

RESULTS

The results showed that the proposed method presented a better and more stable performance in contrast to other competitive feature selection methods, leading to an average accuracy of 78.14% using XG Boost at 31 selected features. The post-hoc explainability highlighted the important features that contribute to the classification of patients with JSN progression.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed fuzzy feature selection approach improves the performance of the predictive models by selecting a small optimal subset of features compared to popular feature selection methods.

The Critical Factors Affecting the Deployment and Scaling of Healthcare AI: Viewpoint from an Experienced Medical Center

Healthcare Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the greatest opportunity for development. Since healthcare and technology are two of Taiwan’s most competitive industries, the development of healthcare AI is an excellent chance for Taiwan to improve its health-related services. From the perspective of economic development, promoting healthcare AI must be a top priority. However, despite having many breakthroughs in research and pilot projects, healthcare AI is still considered rare and is broadly used in the healthcare setting. Based on a medical center in Taiwan that has introduced a variety of healthcare AI into practice, this study discussed and analyzed the issues and concerns in the development and scaling of medical AIs from the perspective of various stakeholders in the healthcare setting, including the government, healthcare institutions, users (healthcare workers), and AI providers. The present study also identified critical influential factors for the deployment and scaling of healthcare AI. It is hoped that this paper can serve as an important reference for the advancement of healthcare AI not only in Taiwan but also in other countries.