Does Artificial Intelligence Make Clinical Decision Better? A Review of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Acute Kidney Injury Prediction

Artificial intelligence and predictive models for early detection of acute kidney injury: transforming clinical practice

Acute kidney injury (AKI) presents a significant clinical challenge due to its rapid progression to kidney failure, resulting in serious complications such as electrolyte imbalances, fluid overload, and the potential need for renal replacement therapy. Early detection and prediction of AKI can improve patient outcomes through timely interventions. This review was conducted as a narrative literature review, aiming to explore state-of-the-art models for early detection and prediction of AKI. We conducted a comprehensive review of findings from various studies, highlighting their strengths, limitations, and practical considerations for implementation in healthcare settings. We highlight the potential benefits and challenges of their integration into routine clinical care and emphasize the importance of establishing robust early-detection systems before the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted prediction models. Advances in AI for AKI detection and prediction are examined, addressing their clinical applicability, challenges, and opportunities for routine implementation.

Interdisciplinary Management of Traumatic Injuries to the Kidneys and Urinary Tract Caused by Blunt Abdominopelvic Trauma

Purpose: Blunt abdominopelvic trauma frequently results in injuries to the urinary organs, especially in polytrauma. The urotrauma is rarely an acute life-threatening event; however, it may lead to severe complications. Methods: This review addresses the under-representation of urological trauma management in interdisciplinary medical training and its impact on patient outcomes. It compiles evidence-based recommendations and guidelines from multiple specialties, focusing on common challenges in managing these injuries. The resource is tailored for primary care physicians in radiology, trauma surgery, internal medicine, urology, and nephrology. Results: Urinary tract injuries can occur even if the patient's condition initially appears normal. An exclusion diagnosis is obligatory by contrast medium tomography of the entire urinary tract and, if suspected, an additional uroendoscopic examination. Interventional therapy by catheterisation of the urinary tract is often required. Urosurgical treatment is not commonly needed, but when there is a demand, it must be administered via an interdisciplinary approach with visceral and trauma surgery. Over 90% of life-threatening kidney injuries (usually up to grade 4-5 AAST) are presently treated by interventional radiologists. Acute kidney injury (AKI) as a complication in trauma patients may complicate clinical management and often worsens the outcome. The incidence of trauma-associated AKI in patients admitted to an intensive care unit is high. Conclusions: Patients suffering from blunt abdominopelvic trauma should ideally be referred to certified trauma centres with subspecialised or fully specialised care provided by visceral/vascular surgery, trauma surgery, interventional radiology, urology, and nephrology. This recommendation is based on the complex nature of most damage patterns.

Machine learning for the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is strongly associated with poor prognosis. We aimed to build a machine learning (ML)-based clinical model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with SA-AKI.

METHODS

Six ML algorithms were included to perform model fitting. Feature selection was based on the feature importance evaluated by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the prediction model. Calibration curve and Brier score were employed to assess the calibrated ability. Our ML-based prediction models were validated both internally and externally.

RESULTS

A total of 12,750 patients with SA-AKI and 55 features were included to build the prediction models. We identified the top 10 predictors including age, ICU stay and GCS score based on the feature importance. Among the six ML algorithms, the CatBoost showed the best prediction performance with an AUROC of 0.813 and Brier score of 0.119. In the external validation set, the predictive value remained favorable (AUROC = 0.784).

CONCLUSION

In this study, we developed and validated a ML-based prediction model based on 10 commonly used clinical features which could accurately and early identify the individuals at high-risk of long-term mortality in patients with SA-AKI.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning's role in sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is a serious complication in critically ill patients, resulting in higher mortality, morbidity, and cost. The intricate pathophysiology of SA-AKI requires vigilant clinical monitoring and appropriate, prompt intervention. While traditional statistical analyses have identified severe risk factors for SA-AKI, the results have been inconsistent across studies. This has led to growing interest in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to predict SA-AKI better. ML can uncover complex patterns beyond human discernment by analyzing vast datasets. Supervised learning models like XGBoost and RNN-LSTM have proven remarkably accurate at predicting SA-AKI onset and subsequent mortality, often surpassing traditional risk scores. Meanwhile, unsupervised learning reveals clinically relevant sub-phenotypes among diverse SA-AKI patients, enabling more tailored care. In addition, it potentially optimizes sepsis treatment to prevent SA-AKI through continual refinement based on patient outcomes. However, utilizing AI/ML presents ethical and practical challenges regarding data privacy, algorithmic biases, and regulatory compliance. AI/ML allows early risk detection, personalized management, optimal treatment strategies, and collaborative learning for SA-AKI management. Future directions include real-time patient monitoring, simulated data generation, and predictive algorithms for timely interventions. However, a smooth transition to clinical practice demands continuous model enhancements and rigorous regulatory oversight. In this article, we outlined the conventional methods used to address SA-AKI and explore how AI and ML can be applied to diagnose and manage SA-AKI, highlighting their potential to revolutionize SA-AKI care.

Anesthetic Management Recommendations Using a Machine Learning Algorithm to Reduce the Risk of Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgeries

Background

Open heart surgeries are a common surgical approach among patients with heart disease. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most common postoperative complications following cardiac surgeries, with an average incidence of 6 - 10%. Additionally, AKI has a mortality rate of 5 - 10%. One of the challenges of cardiac surgeries is selecting the appropriate anesthetic approaches to reduce the risk of AKI.

Objectives

This study presents a machine learning-based method that consists of two regression models. These models can inform the anesthesiologist about the risk of AKI resulting from the improper selection of anesthetic parameters.

Methods

In this cohort study, the medical records of 998 patients who underwent cardiac surgery were collected. The proposed method includes two regression models. The first regression model recommends optimal anesthesia parameters to minimize the risk of AKI. The second model provides the anesthesiologist with the safest margin for deciding on anesthetic parameters during surgery, including cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time, anesthesia time, crystalloid dose, diuretic dose, and transfusion of packed red cells (PC) and fresh frozen plasma (FFP). Using this method, the specialist can evaluate the anesthetic parameters and assess the potential AKI risk. Additionally, the proposed method can also provide the treatment team with anesthetic parameters that carry the lowest risk of AKI.

Results

This method was evaluated using data from 526 patients who suffered from postoperative AKI (AKI+) and 472 who did not suffer any injury (AKI-). The accuracy of the proposed method is 80.6%. Additionally, the evaluation of the proposed method by three experienced cardiac anesthesiologists shows a high correlation between the results of the proposed method and the opinions of the anesthesiologists.

Conclusions

The results indicated that the outputs of the proposed models and the designed software could help reduce the risk of postoperative AKI.

Assessment of Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury with Machine Learning Tools in Children Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Background: Although acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), its prophylaxis remains a clinical challenge. Attempts at prevention or early diagnosis focus on various methods for the identification of factors influencing the incidence of AKI. Our aim was to test the artificial intelligence (AI) potential in the construction of a model defining parameters predicting AKI development. Methods: The analysis covered the clinical data of children followed up for 6 months after HSCT. Kidney function was assessed before conditioning therapy, 24 h after HSCT, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 weeks after transplantation, and, finally, 3 and 6 months post-transplant. The type of donor, conditioning protocol, and complications were incorporated into the model. Results: A random forest classifier (RFC) labeled the 93 patients according to presence or absence of AKI. The RFC model revealed that the values of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before and just after HSCT, as well as methotrexate use, acute graft versus host disease (GvHD), and viral infection occurrence, were the major determinants of AKI incidence within the 6-month post-transplant observation period. Conclusions: Artificial intelligence seems a promising tool in predicting the potential risk of developing AKI, even before HSCT or just after the procedure.

KIM-1, IL-18, and NGAL, in the Machine Learning Prediction of Kidney Injury among Children Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation-A Pilot Study

Children undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) are prone to developing acute kidney injury (AKI). Markers of kidney damage: kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, interleukin (IL)-18, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) may ease early diagnosis of AKI. The aim of this study was to assess serum concentrations of KIM-1, IL-18, and NGAL in children undergoing HSCT in relation to classical markers of kidney function (creatinine, cystatin C, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)) and to analyze their usefulness as predictors of kidney damage with the use of artificial intelligence tools. Serum concentrations of KIM-1, IL-18, NGAL, and cystatin C were assessed by ELISA in 27 children undergoing HSCT before transplantation and up to 4 weeks after the procedure. The data was used to build a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) model of renal injury prediction. The RFC model established on the basis of 3 input variables, KIM-1, IL-18, and NGAL concentrations in the serum of children before HSCT, was able to effectively assess the rate of patients with hyperfiltration, a surrogate marker of kidney injury 4 weeks after the procedure. With the use of the RFC model, serum KIM-1, IL-18, and NGAL may serve as markers of incipient renal dysfunction in children after HSCT.

Machine learning clinical prediction models for acute kidney injury: the impact of baseline creatinine on prediction efficacy

BACKGROUND

There are many Machine Learning (ML) models which predict acute kidney injury (AKI) for hospitalised patients. While a primary goal of these models is to support clinical decision-making, the adoption of inconsistent methods of estimating baseline serum creatinine (sCr) may result in a poor understanding of these models' effectiveness in clinical practice. Until now, the performance of such models with different baselines has not been compared on a single dataset. Additionally, AKI prediction models are known to have a high rate of false positive (FP) events regardless of baseline methods. This warrants further exploration of FP events to provide insight into potential underlying reasons.

OBJECTIVE

The first aim of this study was to assess the variance in performance of ML models using three methods of baseline sCr on a retrospective dataset. The second aim was to conduct an error analysis to gain insight into the underlying factors contributing to FP events.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset was used with the KDIGO (Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome) definition to identify AKI episodes. Three different methods of estimating baseline sCr were defined as (1) the minimum sCr, (2) the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation and the minimum sCr and (3) the MDRD equation and the mean of preadmission sCr. For the first aim of this study, a suite of ML models was developed for each baseline and the performance of the models was assessed. An analysis of variance was performed to assess the significant difference between eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models across all baselines. To address the second aim, Explainable AI (XAI) methods were used to analyse the XGB errors with Baseline 3.

RESULTS

Regarding the first aim, we observed variances in discriminative metrics and calibration errors of ML models when different baseline methods were adopted. Using Baseline 1 resulted in a 14% reduction in the f1 score for both Baseline 2 and Baseline 3. There was no significant difference observed in the results between Baseline 2 and Baseline 3. For the second aim, the FP cohort was analysed using the XAI methods which led to relabelling data with the mean of sCr in 180 to 0 days pre-ICU as the preferred sCr baseline method. The XGB model using this relabelled data achieved an AUC of 0.85, recall of 0.63, precision of 0.54 and f1 score of 0.58. The cohort size was 31,586 admissions, of which 5,473 (17.32%) had AKI.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of a widely accepted method of baseline sCr, AKI prediction studies need to consider the impact of different baseline methods on the effectiveness of ML models and their potential implications in real-world implementations. The utilisation of XAI methods can be effective in providing insight into the occurrence of prediction errors. This can potentially augment the success rate of ML implementation in routine care.

Prediction of persistent acute kidney injury in postoperative intensive care unit patients using integrated machine learning: a retrospective cohort study

Acute kidney injury (AKI) often occurs in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). AKI duration is closely related to the prognosis of critically ill patients. Identifying the disease course length in AKI is critical for developing effective individualised treatment. To predict persistent AKI at an early stage based on a machine learning algorithm and integrated models. Overall, 955 patients admitted to the ICU after surgery complicated by AKI were retrospectively evaluated. The occurrence of persistent AKI was predicted using three machine learning methods: a support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, and extreme gradient boosting and with an integrated model. External validation was also performed. The incidence of persistent AKI was 39.4-45.1%. In the internal validation, SVM exhibited the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value, followed by the integrated model. In the external validation, the AUC values of the SVM and integrated models were 0.69 and 0.68, respectively, and the model calibration chart revealed that all models had good performance. Critically ill patients with AKI after surgery had high incidence of persistent AKI. Our machine learning model could effectively predict the occurrence of persistent AKI at an early stage.

Predicting acute kidney injury following open partial nephrectomy treatment using SAT-pruned explainable machine learning model

Background

One of the most prevalent complications of Partial Nephrectomy (PN) is Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), which could have a negative impact on subsequent renal function and occurs in up to 24.3% of patients undergoing PN. The aim of this study was to predict the occurrence of AKI following PN using preoperative parameters by applying machine learning algorithms.

Methods

We included all adult patients (n = 723) who underwent open PN in our department since 1995 and on whom we have data on the pre-operative renal function. We developed a random forest (RF) model with Boolean satisfaction-based pruned decision trees for binary classification (AKI or non-AKI). Hyper-parameter grid search was performed to optimize the model's performance. Fivefold cross-validation was applied to evaluate the model. We implemented a RF model with greedy feature selection to binary classify AKI and non-AKI cases based on pre-operative data.

Results

The best model obtained a 0.69 precision and 0.69 recall in classifying the AKI and non-AKI groups on average (k = 5). In addition, the model's probability to correctly classify a new prediction is 0.75. The proposed model is available as an online calculator.

Conclusions

Our model predicts the occurrence of AKI following open PN with (75%) accuracy. We plan to externally validate this model and modify it to minimally-invasive PN.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01877-8.