Modeling of GRACE-Derived Groundwater Information in the Colorado River Basin

Assessment of surface water resource and allocation optimization for diverse demands in Ethiopia's upper Bilate Watershed

Water planning and management is very crucial for all computing sectors for water uses to maximize the scarce and allocated water uses based on their demands sustainably in Ethiopia's upper Bilate watershed. The shortage of surface water, especially during dry months, has become a major point of contention between upstream and downstream water users in the upper Bilate River. Therefore, the key objectives of the study are to evaluate the surface water resources and determine the best distribution for a range of requirements in the watershed. The historical climatic and stream flow daily data for the period of 2010-2019 have been used for the analysis. Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System-Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension with the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System was used for rainfall-runoff analysis. The model output further represents that the yearly overall surface water of the watershed is 502 MC M. Estimated annual environmental requirement is 75.32MCM which is 15% of the average annual available flow in watershed. Current annual irrigation, livestock, and domestic water demand were estimated to be 19.34 MC M, 12.39 MC M, and 79.4 MC M, respectively. The net amount of water delivered was 19.25 MC M, 79.28 MC M, and 12.36 MC M for irrigation, domestic, and Livestock demands, respectively, in the reference scenario. In the currently available (reference) scenario, 99.8% of the water supply need had been fulfilled, yet only 0.2% of the requirements for water were unmet. Average annual water demand of 111.13 MC M in the current scenario growth to 176.08 MC M when the future growth scenario. In contrast, for the future irrigation development and population projections scenario, 69.8% of the supply-demand became acquainted, and 30.2% of the demand for water remained unfulfilled in 2035. Therefore, to realize good water availability for productive use and allocate water optimal manner constructing a hydraulic structure (dam) upstream of the watershed was recommended.

Autoregressive Reconstruction of Total Water Storage within GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Gap Period

For 15 years, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have monitored total water storage (TWS) changes. The GRACE mission ended in October 2017, and 11 months later, the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission was launched in May 2018. Bridging the gap between both missions is essential to obtain continuous mass changes. To fill the gap, we propose a new approach based on a remove–restore technique combined with an autoregressive (AR) prediction. We first make use of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) hydrological model to remove climatology from GRACE/GRACE-FO data. Since the GLDAS mis-models real TWS changes for many regions around the world, we further use least-squares estimation (LSE) to remove remaining residual trends and annual and semi-annual oscillations. The missing 11 months of TWS values are then predicted forward and backward with an AR model. For the forward approach, we use the GRACE TWS values before the gap; for the backward approach, we use the GRACE-FO TWS values after the gap. The efficiency of forward–backward AR prediction is examined for the artificial gap of 11 months that we create in the GRACE TWS changes for the July 2008 to May 2009 period. We obtain average differences between predicted and observed GRACE values of at maximum 5 cm for 80% of areas, with the extreme values observed for the Amazon, Alaska, and South and Northern Asia. We demonstrate that forward–backward AR prediction is better than the standalone GLDAS hydrological model for more than 75% of continental areas. For the natural gap (July 2017–May 2018), the misclosures in backward–forward prediction estimated between forward- and backward-predicted values are equal to 10 cm. This represents an amount of 10–20% of the total TWS signal for 60% of areas. The regional analysis shows that the presented method is able to capture the occurrence of droughts or floods, but does not reflect their magnitudes. Results indicate that the presented remove–restore technique combined with AR prediction can be utilized to reliably predict TWS changes for regional analysis, but the removed climatology must be properly matched to the selected region.

Kabul River Flow Prediction Using Automated ARIMA Forecasting: A Machine Learning Approach

The water level in a river defines the nature of flow and is fundamental to flood analysis. Extreme fluctuation in water levels in rivers, such as floods and droughts, are catastrophic in every manner; therefore, forecasting at an early stage would prevent possible disasters and relief efforts could be set up on time. This study aims to digitally model the water level in the Kabul River to prevent and alleviate the effects of any change in water level in this river downstream. This study used a machine learning tool known as the automatic autoregressive integrated moving average for statistical methodological analysis for forecasting the river flow. Based on the hydrological data collected from the water level of Kabul River in Swat, the water levels from 2011–2030 were forecasted, which were based on the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion as 9.216. It was concluded that the water flow started to increase from the year 2011 till it reached its peak value in the year 2019–2020, and then the water level will maintain its maximum level to 250 cumecs and minimum level to 10 cumecs till 2030. The need for this research is justified as it could prove helpful in establishing guidelines for hydrological designers, the planning and management of water, hydropower engineering projects, as an indicator for weather prediction, and for the people who are greatly dependent on the Kabul River for their survival.

Improving the Resolution of GRACE Data for Spatio-Temporal Groundwater Storage Assessment

Groundwater has a significant contribution to water storage and is considered to be one of the sources for agricultural irrigation; industrial; and domestic water use. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite provides a unique opportunity to evaluate terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) at a large spatial scale. However; the coarse resolution of GRACE limits its ability to investigate the water storage change at a small scale. It is; therefore; needed to improve the resolution of GRACE data at a spatial scale applicable for regional-level studies. In this study; a machine-learning-based downscaling random forest model (RFM) and artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to downscale GRACE data (TWS and GWS) from 1° to a higher resolution (0.25°). The spatial maps of downscaled TWS and GWS were generated over the Indus basin irrigation system (IBIS). Variations in TWS of GRACE in combination with geospatial variables; including digital elevation model (DEM), slope; aspect; and hydrological variables; including soil moisture; evapotranspiration; rainfall; surface runoff; canopy water; and temperature; were used. The geospatial and hydrological variables could potentially contribute to; or correlate with; GRACE TWS. The RFM outperformed the ANN model and results show Pearson correlation coefficient (R) (0.97), root mean square error (RMSE) (11.83 mm), mean absolute error (MAE) (7.71 mm), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (0.94) while comparing with the training dataset from 2003 to 2016. These results indicate the suitability of RFM to downscale GRACE data at a regional scale. The downscaled GWS data were analyzed; and we observed that the region has lost GWS of about −9.54 ± 1.27 km3 at the rate of −0.68 ± 0.09 km3/year from 2003 to 2016. The validation results showed that R between downscaled GWS and observational wells GWS are 0.67 and 0.77 at seasonal and annual scales with a confidence level of 95%, respectively. It can; therefore; be concluded that the RFM has the potential to downscale GRACE data at a spatial scale suitable to predict GWS at regional scales.

Fusion of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data in mapping the impervious surfaces at city scale

Urbanization creates new development in open spaces and agricultural fields, synonymous with increasing impervious surfaces. Such surfaces restrain the natural infiltration of water, and directly affect the non-point source pollution. Thus, consequential events like flooding and surface water degradation require spatial and quantitative information on impervious surfaces. Remote sensing technologies are widely used in impervious surface mapping of various geographical locations for environmental monitoring. In this study, the datasets from recently launched European Space Agency satellites (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2) and random forest classifier are used. The impervious surface growth of the study area, Lahore city, in 2015 and 2021, and growth trends are assessed. Results are validated with classification accuracy and comparison with similar datasets. The objective is to develop a reliable impervious surface mapping method with land cover quantification technique from multisource datasets. With a chi-square value of greater than 3.84 obtained from the McNemar test, the performance of fused data was superior to that of optical alone data in the classification. Over a 5-year period, Lahore grew at an annual rate of 2.14% comparable to the findings of Copernicus Land Services and the Atlas of Urban Expansion with an underestimation of 1% and 8.75%, respectively. Improvements in overall accuracy (2.7%) and kappa coefficient (5%) were seen in classified maps from fused datasets. Fusion of Sentinel datasets provide a reliable means of impervious surface mapping at city scale as an indicator of environmental quality which is valuable for the sustainable management of the city.

Impervious Surfaces Mapping at City Scale by Fusion of Radar and Optical Data through a Random Forest Classifier

Urbanization increases the amount of impervious surfaces, making accurate information on spatial and temporal expansion trends essential; the challenge is to develop a cost- and labor-effective technique that is compatible with the assessment of multiple geographical locations in developing countries. Several studies have identified the potential of remote sensing and multiple source information in impervious surface quantification. Therefore, this study aims to fuse datasets from the Sentinel 1 and 2 Satellites to map the impervious surfaces of nine Pakistani cities and estimate their growth rates from 2016 to 2020 utilizing the random forest algorithm. All bands in the optical and radar images were resampled to 10 m resolution, projected to same coordinate system and geometrically aligned to stack into a single product. The models were then trained, and classifications were validated with land cover samples from Google Earth’s high-resolution images. Overall accuracies of classified maps ranged from 85% to 98% with the resultant quantities showing a strong linear relationship (R-squared value of 0.998) with the Copernicus Global Land Services data. There was up to 9% increase in accuracy and up to 12 % increase in kappa coefficient from the fused data with respect to optical alone. A McNemar test confirmed the superiority of fused data. Finally, the cities had growth rates ranging from 0.5% to 2.5%, with an average of 1.8%. The information obtained can alert urban planners and environmentalists to assess impervious surface impacts in the cities.

Evaluating Irrigation Performance and Water Productivity Using EEFlux ET and NDVI

Southern California’s Imperial Valley (IV) faces serious water management concerns due to its semi-arid environment, water-intensive crops and limited water supply. Accurate and reliable irrigation system performance and water productivity information is required in order to assess and improve the current water management strategies. This study evaluates the spatially distributed irrigation equity, adequacy and crop water productivity (CWP) for two water-intensive crops, alfalfa and sugar beet, using remotely sensed data and a geographical information system for the 2018/2019 crop growing season. The actual crop evapotranspiration (ETa) was mapped in Google Earth Engine Evapotranspiration Flux, using the linear interpolation method in R version 4.0.2. The approx() function in the base R was used to produce daily ETa maps, and then totaled to compute the ETa for the whole season. The equity and adequacy were determined according to the ETa’s coefficient of variation (CV) and relative evapotranspiration (RET), respectively. The crop classification was performed using a machine learning approach (a random forest algorithm). The CWP was computed as a ratio of the crop yield to the crop water use, employing yield disaggregation to map the crop yield, using county-level production statistics data and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. The relative errors (RE) of the ETa compared to the reported literature values were 7–27% for alfalfa and 0–3% for sugar beet. The average ETa variation was low; however, the spatial variation within the fields showed that 35% had a variability greater than 10%. The RET was high, indicating adequate irrigation; 31.5% of the alfalfa and 12% of the sugar beet fields clustered in the Valley’s central corner were consuming more water than their potential visibly. The CWP showed wide variation, with CVs of 32.92% for alfalfa and 25.4% for sugar beet, signifying a substantial scope for CWP enhancement. The correlation between the CWP, ETa and yield showed that reducing the ETa to approximately 1500 mm for alfalfa and 1200 mm for sugar beet would help boost the CWP without decreasing the yield, which is nearly equivalent to 44.52M cu. m (36,000 acre-ft) of water. The study’s results could help water managers to identify poorly performing fields where water conservation and management could be focused.

Design Aspects, Energy Consumption Evaluation, and Offset for Drinking Water Treatment Operation

Drinking water treatment, wastewater treatment, and water distribution are energy-intensive processes. The goal of this study was to design the unit processes of an existing drinking water treatment plant (DWTP), evaluate the associated energy consumption, and then offset it using solar photovoltaics (PVs) to reduce carbon emissions. The selected DWTP, situated in the southwestern United States, utilizes coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration, and chlorination to treat 3.94 m3 of local river water per second. Based on the energy consumption determined for each unit process (validated using the plant’s data) and the plant’s available landholding, the DWTP was sized for solar PV (as a modeling study) using the system advisor model. Total operational energy consumption was estimated to be 56.3 MWh day−1 for the DWTP including water distribution pumps, whereas energy consumption for the DWTP excluding water distribution pumps was 2661 kWh day−1. The results showed that the largest consumers of energy—after the water distribution pumps (158.1 Wh m−3)—were the processes of coagulation (1.95 Wh m−3) and flocculation (1.93 Wh m−3). A 500 kW PV system was found to be sufficient to offset the energy consumption of the water treatment only operations, for a net present value of $0.24 million. The net reduction in carbon emissions due to the PV-based design was found to be 450 and 240 metric tons CO2-eq year−1 with and without battery storage, respectively. This methodology can be applied to other existing DWTPs for design and assessment of energy consumption and use of renewables.

Satellite Monitoring of Mass Changes and Ground Subsidence in Sudan’s Oil Fields Using GRACE and Sentinel-1 Data

Monitoring environmental hazards, owing to natural and anthropogenic causes, is an important issue, which requires proper data, models, and cross-validation of the results. The geodetic satellite missions, for example, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Sentinel-1, are very useful in this respect. GRACE missions are dedicated to modeling the temporal variations of the Earth’s gravity field and mass transportation in the Earth’s surface, whereas Sentinel-1 collects synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, which enables us to measure the ground movements accurately. Extraction of large volumes of water and oil decreases the reservoir pressure and form compaction and, consequently, land subsidence occurs, which can be analyzed by both GRACE and Sentinel-1 data. In this paper, large-scale groundwater storage (GWS) changes are studied using the GRACE monthly gravity field models together with different hydrological models over the major oil reservoirs in Sudan, that is, Heglig, Bamboo, Neem, Diffra, and Unity-area oil fields. Then, we correlate the results with the available oil wells production data for the period of 2003–2012. In addition, using the only freely available Sentinel-1 data, collected between November 2015 and April 2019, the ground surface deformation associated with this oil and water depletion is studied. Owing to the lack of terrestrial geodetic monitoring data in Sudan, the use of GRACE and Sentinel-1 satellite data is very valuable to monitor water and oil storage changes and their associated land subsidence over our region of interest. Our results show that there is a significant correlation between the GRACE-based GWS anomalies (ΔGWS) and extracted oil and water volumes. The trend of ΔGWS changes due to water and oil depletion ranged from –18.5 ± 6.3 to –6.2 ± 1.3 mm/year using the CSR GRACE monthly solutions and the best tested hydrological model in this study. Moreover, our Sentinel-1 SAR data analysis using the persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) method shows a high rate of subsidence, that is, –24.5 ± 0.85, –23.8 ± 0.96, –14.2 ± 0.85, and –6 ± 0.88 mm/year over Heglig, Neem, Diffra, and Unity-area oil fields, respectively. The results of this study can help us to control the integrity and safety of operations and infrastructure in that region, as well as to study the groundwater/oil storage behavior.

Exploring Spatiotemporal Relations between Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow for a Large Set of Watersheds Using Google Earth Engine

An understanding of streamflow variability and its response to changes in climate conditions is essential for water resource planning and management practices that will help to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as floods and droughts on agriculture and other human activities. This study investigated the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow over a wide range of watersheds across the United States using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The correlation analyses disclosed a strong association between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, however, soil moisture was found to have a higher correlation with the streamflow relative to precipitation. Results indicated different strength of the association depends on the watershed classes and lag times assessments. The perennial watersheds showed higher coherence compared to intermittent watersheds. Previous month precipitation and soil moisture have a stronger influence on the current month streamflow, particularly in the snow-dominated watersheds. Monthly streamflow forecasting models were developed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The results showed that the SVM model generally performed better than the ARIMA model. Overall streamflow forecasting model performance varied considerably among watershed classes, and perennial watersheds tend to exhibit better predictably compared to intermittent watersheds due to lower streamflow variability. The SVM models with precipitation and streamflow inputs performed better than those with streamflow input only. Results indicated that the inclusion of antecedent root-zone soil moisture improved the streamflow forecasting in most of the watersheds, and the largest improvements occurred in the intermittent watersheds. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that knowing the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in different watershed classes will enhance the understanding of the hydrologic process and can be effectively utilized in improving streamflow forecasting for better satellite-based water resource management strategies.

Climatological Drought Forecasting Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data: A Case Study for India

This study forecasts and assesses drought situations in various regions of India (the Araveli region, the Bundelkhand region, and the Kansabati river basin) based on seven simulated climates in the near future (2015–2044). The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) was used based on its fairness in identifying drought conditions that account for the temperature as well. Gridded temperature and rainfall data of spatial resolution of 1 km were used to bias correct the multi-model ensemble mean of the Global Climatic Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) project. Equidistant quantile-based mapping was adopted to remove the bias in the rainfall and temperature data, which were corrected on a monthly scale. The outcome of the forecast suggests multiple severe-to-extreme drought events of appreciable durations, mostly after the 2030s, under most climate scenarios in all the three study areas. The severe-to-extreme drought duration was found to last at least 20 to 30 months in the near future in all three study areas. A high-resolution drought index was developed and proven to be a key to assessing the drought situation.

Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections

The study investigated the impact on water supply and demand as an effect of climate change and population growth in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) as a part of the Thriving Earth Exchange Program. The analyses evaluated future supply and demand scenarios utilizing a system dynamics model based on the climate and hydrological projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively) using the simulation period expanding from 1989 to 2049. The main source of water supply in LVV is the water storage in Lake Mead, which is directly related to Lake Mead elevation. In order to assess the future water demand, the elevation of Lake Mead was evaluated under several water availability scenarios. Fifty-nine out of the 97 (27 out of the 48) projections from CMIP5 (CMIP3) indicated that the future mean elevation of Lake Mead is likely to be lower than the historical mean. Demand forecasts showed that the Southern Nevada Water Authority’s conservation goal for 2035 can be significantly met under prevalent conservation practices. Findings from this study can be useful for water managers and resource planners to predict future water budget and to make effective decisions in advance to attain sustainable practices and conservation goals.

Spatio-Temporal Groundwater Drought Monitoring Using Multi-Satellite Data Based on an Artificial Neural Network

Drought is a complex phenomenon caused by lack of precipitation that affects water resources and human society. Groundwater drought is difficult to assess due to its complexity and the lack of spatio-temporal groundwater observations. In this study, we present an approach to evaluate groundwater drought based on relatively high spatial resolution groundwater storage change data. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) that employed satellite data (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) as well as Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models. The Standardized Groundwater Level Index (SGI) was calculated by normalizing ANN-predicted groundwater storage changes from 2003 to 2015 across South Korea. The ANN-predicted 25 km groundwater storage changes correlated well with both the in situ and the water balance equation (WBE)-estimated groundwater storage changes, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.87 and 0.64, respectively. The Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), having an accumulation time of 1–6 months, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) were used to validate the SGI. The results showed that the SGI had a pattern similar to that of SPEI-1 and SPEI-2 (1- and 2-month accumulation periods, respectively), and PDSI. However, the SGI performance fluctuated slightly due to its relatively short study period (13 years) as compared to SPEI and PDSI (more than 30 years). The SGI, which was developed using a new approach in this study, captured the characteristics of groundwater drought, thus presenting a framework for the assessment of these characteristics.