Risk factors of CVD mortality among the elderly in Beijing, 1992 - 2009: an 18-year cohort study

Carotid Plaque Score and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality in the Oldest Old: Results from the TOOTH Study

Aim: Accumulating evidence suggests that predictability of traditional cardiovascular risk factors declines with advancing age. We investigated whether carotid plaque scores (CPSs) were associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) death in the oldest old, and whether asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), a marker of endothelial dysfunction, moderated the association between the CPS and CVD death.

Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of Japanese subjects aged ≥ 85 years without CVD at baseline. We followed this cohort for 6 years to investigate the association of CPS with CVD death via multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis. We divided participants into three groups according to CPS (no, 0 points; low, 1.2–4.9 points; high, ≥5.0 points). The predictive value of CPS for estimating CVD death risk over CVD risk factors, including ADMA, was examined using C-statistics.

Results: We analyzed 347 participants (151 men, 196 women; mean age, 87.6 years), of which 135 (38.9%) had no carotid plaque at baseline, and 48 (13.8%) had high CPS. Of the total, 29 (8.4%) participants experienced CVD-related death during the study period. Multivariable analysis revealed a significant association of high CPS with CVD-related mortality relative to no CPS (hazard ratio, 3.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.47–10.39). ADMA was not associated with CVD death, but the significant association between CPS and CVD death was observed only in lower ADMA level. The addition of CPS to other risk factors improved the predictability of CVD death (p = 0.032).

Conclusions: High CPS correlated significantly with a higher CVD death risk in the oldest old with low cardiovascular risk. Ultrasound carotid plaque evaluation might facilitate risk evaluations of CVD death in the very old.

A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72-0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69-0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65.

Prediction of the 20-year incidence of diabetes in older Chinese: Application of the competing risk method in a longitudinal study

The competing risk method has become more acceptable for time-to-event data analysis because of its advantage over the standard Cox model in accounting for competing events in the risk set. This study aimed to construct a prediction model for diabetes using a subdistribution hazards model.We prospectively followed 1857 community residents who were aged ≥ 55 years, free of diabetes at baseline examination from August 1992 to December 2012. Diabetes was defined as a self-reported history of diabetes diagnosis, taking antidiabetic medicine, or having fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L. A questionnaire was used to measure diabetes risk factors, including dietary habits, lifestyle, psychological factors, cognitive function, and physical condition. Gray test and a subdistribution hazards model were used to construct a prediction algorithm for 20-year risk of diabetes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, bootstrap cross-validated Wolber concordance index (C-index) statistics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance.During the 20-year follow-up period, 144 cases were documented for diabetes incidence with a median follow-up of 10.9 years (interquartile range: 8.0-15.3 years). The cumulative incidence function of 20-year diabetes incidence was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risk of nondiabetes death. Gray test showed that body mass index, FPG, self-rated heath status, and physical activity were associated with the cumulative incidence function of diabetes after adjusting for age. Finally, 5 standard risk factors (poor self-rated health status [subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.73, P = 0.005], less physical activity [SHR = 1.39, P = 0.047], 55-65 years old [SHR = 4.37, P < 0.001], overweight [SHR = 2.15, P < 0.001] or obesity [SHR = 1.96, P = 0.003], and impaired fasting glucose [IFG] [SHR = 1.99, P < 0.001]) were significantly associated with incident diabetes. Model performance was moderate to excellent, as indicated by its bootstrap cross-validated discrimination C-index (0.74, 95% CI: 0.70-0.79) and calibration plot.Poor self-rated health, physical inactivity, being 55 to 65 years of age, overweight/obesity, and IFG were significant predictors of incident diabetes. Early prevention with a goal of achieving optimal levels of all risk factors should become a key element of diabetes prevention.

The prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases among Polish surgical patients over 65 years

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality among adults in Poland. A number of risk factors have significant influence on CVD incidence. Early identification of risk factors related to our lifestyle facilitates taking proper actions aiming at the reduction of their negative impact on health.

AIM

The aim of the study was to compare the prevalence of CVD risk factors between patients aged over 65 years and patients of other age groups in surgical wards.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study was conducted for assessment and finding the distribution of major risk factors of CVD among 420 patients aged 18-84 years who were hospitalized in surgical wards. Interview, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, and fasting blood tests for biochemical analysis were conducted in all subjects. Statistical analysis of the material was performed using Student's t-test, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and analysis of variance.

RESULTS

While abdominal obesity (83.3%), overweight and obesity (68%), hypertension (65.1%), hypercholesterolemia (33.3%), and low level of physical activity (29.1%) were the most common CVD risk factors among patients over 65 years old, abdominal obesity (36.2%), overweight and obesity (36.1%), and current smoking were the most common CVD risk factors among patients up to the age of 35. In the age group over 65, the least prevalent risk factors for CVD were diabetes mellitus (14.8%), depressive episodes (13.6%), abuse of alcohol (11.4%), and smoking (7.8%). In the group under 35 years, we have not reported any cases of hypercholesterolemia and a lesser number of patients suffered from diabetes and HTN.

CONCLUSION

Distribution of the major risk factors for CVD is quite high in the adult population, especially in the age group over 65, which can result in serious problems of health and increased rates of chronic diseases, especially CVDs.

A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55 years old.

Qingdao Port Cardiovascular Health Study: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

In China, efforts are underway to respond to rapidly increasing rates of heart disease and stroke. Yet the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in China may be different from that of other populations. Thus, there is a critical need for population-based studies that provide insight into the risk factors, incidence and outcomes of cardiovascular disease in China. The Qingdao Port Cardiovascular Health Study is designed to investigate the burden of cardiovascular disease and the sociodemographic, biological, environmental and clinical risk factors associated with disease onset and outcomes.

PARTICIPANTS

For this study, from 2000 through 2013, 32,404 employees aged 18 years or older were recruited from the Qingdao Port Group in China, contributing 221,923 annual health assessments. The mean age at recruitment was 43.4 (SD=12.9); 79% were male. In this ongoing study, annual health assessments, governed by extensive quality control mechanisms, include a questionnaire (capturing demographic and employment information, medical history, medication use, health behaviours and health outcomes), physical examination, ECG, and blood and urine analysis. Additional non-annual assessments include an X-ray, echocardiogram and carotid ultrasound; bio-samples will be collected for future genetic and proteomic analyses. Cardiovascular outcomes are accessed via self-report and are actively being verified with medical insurance claims; efforts are underway to adjudicate outcomes with hospital medical records.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Early findings reveal a significant increase in cardiovascular risk factors from 2000 to 2010 (hypertension: 26.4-39.4%; diabetes: 3.3-8.9%; hyperlipidaemia: 5.0-33.6%; body mass index >28 m/kg(2): 14.1-18.6%).

FUTURE PLANS

We aim to generate novel insights about the epidemiology and outcomes of cardiovascular disease in China, with specific emphasis on the potentially unique risk factor profiles of this Chinese population. Knowledge generated will be disseminated in the peer-reviewed literature, and will inform population-based strategies to improve cardiovascular health in China.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02329886.