Fair and Reasonable Allocation of Trans-Boundary Water Resources Based on an Asymmetric Nash Negotiation Model from the Satisfaction Perspective: A Case Study for the Lancang-Mekong River Bain

Transboundary Water Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era: Spatial Patterns and the Role of Proximity

Transboundary water cooperation (TWC) is an important theme of international cooperation. We conducted macro-level research on TWC from the perspective of inter-country relations and constructed a theoretical framework in which multidimensional proximity influences the formation of global TWC. We explained how multidimensional proximity and the constituent elements comprehensively influence the cooperative willingness and ability of actors, which directly drive the generation of global TWC. During the empirical research phase, we constructed the TWC frequency and intensity networks based on historical TWC events data from 1992 to 2013. By using social network analysis and QAP regression analysis, the spatial structure and proximity effect of water cooperation linkages are examined. It can be found that: (1) the reconstruction of territorial space on the eve of the end of the Cold War led to the peak of water cooperation events in 1992. The overall scale of events in the Post-Cold War era was relatively high and fluctuated steadily. (2) Water cooperation linkages have distinct spatial heterogeneity and are concentrated in the Eurasian and the African continents. Water cooperation is sensitive to geographical distance, and high-intensity water cooperation linkages exist in only a few areas. (3) China, Egypt, Germany, the United States, and Russia have prominent positions in the network. The United States, Japan, and other extra-regional powers actively participated in TWC in the Eastern Hemisphere. (4) The regression results show that geographical, economic, organizational, and colonial proximity significantly affect the intensity of water cooperation among countries.

Analysis of Tradable Water Volumes of Industry in Water-Rich Areas of China: A Case Study of Changsha City

Tradable water volumes is one of the basic elements of water-rights trading. In China, water-rights transactions mostly occur in water-deficient areas. However, the water-rich areas are also facing serious water-shortage problems. It is necessary to stimulate the water-rights trading power in abundant water areas to improve water-resource predicament. This paper studied the concept and calculation method of tradable water volumes of industry. First, based on the property rights theory, we analyzed the concept of tradable water volumes, and put forward the preliminary determination of water-rights trading subjects. Then, we defined the tradable water volumes of industry as the difference between the initial water-rights allocation and the water demand of industry. We used the proportion method to calculate the initial water-rights allocation of industry under different runoff frequencies, and grey model (1,1) to predict the water demand of industry. Finally, we applied the calculation method to Changsha city which is in a water-rich area of China. The calculation results contribute to water-resource management in Changsha city. This paper will provide a theoretical basis for researching the tradable water volumes, and promote the development of water-rights trading in China's water-rich areas.

Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on the NSGA-2 Algorithm While Considering Intergenerational Equity: A Case Study of the Middle and Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China

With the rapid development of society and the economy, the demand for water resources is increasing. This, combined with the increasing competition for water resources between current and future generations, hinders the sustainable development of society. To alleviate prominent water resources problems, achieve sustainable utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of society and economy, a multi-objective optimal water resources allocation model is proposed, in which different water sources and different water departments are considered to achieve the maximum social and economic benefits of the study area on the premise of water resources sustainability. To meet the needs of future generations, the discount value is introduced to measure intergenerational equity. A case study from seven cities in the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin is given to verify the practicality and viability of the model. The non-dominated sorting Genetic Algorithms-2(NSGA-2) was used to find optimal water resources allocation schemes in 2020 and 2050 under the condition of a hydrological drought year (inflow guarantee rate p = 75%). Compared with previous models, the intergenerational equity model considers the sustainability of water resources, has higher social and economic benefits, and ensures the fair distribution of water resources among generations. According to the results, under balanced weight, the water shortage ratio of the seven cities will decrease from 5.24% in 2050 to 1.58% in 2020, and the economic benefit will increase from 79.46(10¹⁰CNY) to 168.3(10¹⁰CNY), respectively. In addition, the discount value of economic benefit in 2050 is 80.23(10¹⁰CNY), which is still higher than that in 2020. This shows that the water resource allocation scheme can eliminate the disparity between supply and demand for water resources and achieve intergenerational equity. Therefore, the intergenerational equity model can alleviate the contradiction of water resources and realize intergenerational equity.

System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang

With the rapid development of social economy and global climate warming, scarce transboundary water resources, as one of the basic resources for socio-economic development, have increasingly become the focus of basin countries. To investigate the socio-economic impacts of different water diversion quantity from transboundary river basins, we used a system dynamics (SD) model to reflect interactions between population, water resources, and socio-economic development, and applied it to a case study in Xinjiang to simulate its change tendency from 2011 to 2030 from the temporal dimension. Then, four water diversion quantity of transboundary river basins and four alternative socio-economic development patterns were designed to comprehensively evaluate these impacts of water diversion quantity change on the socio-economy of the region along the river under different socio-economic development patterns. The results indicate that (1) there was a positive correlation between water diversion quantity and the economic output value of the region along transboundary river basins, and the marginal benefit of transboundary water resources would decrease gradually; (2) considering the difficulty of water diversion from transboundary river basins and the protection of downstream water use and ecological health of transboundary river basins, we believe that increasing the transboundary water resources by 20% was more conducive to the sustainable development of Xinjiang’s socio-economy; (3) through the comparison of dynamic evolutions of socio-economic development and water impacts under four socio-economic development patterns, it is best for Xinjiang to plan its future development in the coordinated development of economic-resource scenario. Following this scenario, not only would the total output value of the socio-economy be better than other scenarios, but this also helps to alleviate the contradiction between the water supply and demand, which expected there would be a water shortage of 1.04 billion m³ in 2029 under 20% increase in water diversion quantity. Therefore, appropriate water diversion quantity, reasonable adjustment of industrial production growth rate, reduction of water consumption quotas of different industries and domestic water quota, and improvement of collection and treatment rate for sewage should be given priority in water resources management decision-making in Xinjiang or other arid regions along transboundary river basins.