Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)

Epidemiology of listeriosis in a region in central Italy from 2010 to 2019: Estimating the real incidence and space-time analysis for detecting cluster of cases

BACKGROUND

Contamination and transmission of different Listeria monocytogenes strains along food chain are a serious threat to public health and food safety. Understanding the distribution of diseases in time and space-time is fundamental in the epidemiological study and in preventive medicine programs. The aim of this study is to estimate listeriosis incidence along 10-years period and to perform space-time cluster analysis of listeriosis cases in Marche Region, Italy.

METHODS

The number of observed listeriosis cases/year was derived from regional data of surveillance of notifiable diseases and hospital discharge form. The capture and recapture method (C-R method) was applied to estimate the real incidence of listeriosis cases in Marche Region and the space-time scan statistics analysis was performed to detect clusters of space-time of listeriosis cases and add precision to the conventional epidemiological analysis.

RESULTS

The C-R method estimation of listeriosis cases was 119 in the 10- year period (2010-2019), with an average of 31.93 % of unobserved cases (lost cases). The estimated mean annual incidence of listeriosis was 0.77 per 100,000 inhabitants (95 %CI 0.65-0.92), accounting for 6.07 % of additional listeriosis cases per year than observed cases. Using the scan statistic, the two most likely clusters were identified, one of these was statistically significant (p < 0.05). The underdiagnosis and under-reporting in addition to listeriosis incidence variability suggested that the surveillance system of Marche Region should be improved.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the ability of space-time cluster analysis to complement traditional surveillance of food-borne diseases and to understand the local risk factors by implementing timely targeted interventions.

Emerging Non-Polio Enteroviruses recognized in the framework of the Acute Flaccid Paralyses (AFP) surveillance system in Northern Italy, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Acute Flaccid Paralyses Surveillance (AFPS) monitors the emergence of polioviruses and can track Non-Polio Enteroviruses (NPEVs). We report AFPS activity in the Lombardy region (Northern Italy) from 2016 to 2018.

METHODS

Fecal and respiratory samples were collected from children <15 years who met the WHO definition of an AFP case, analyzed by virus isolation in cell cultures (RD/L20B) and by a one-step real-time RT-PCR assay specific for the 5'-noncoding-region of NPEV. NPEV-positive specimens were further analyzed by sequencing a fragment of the VP1 gene.

RESULTS

36 AFP cases (89 stool and 32 respiratory samples) were reported with an incidence of 1.1/100'000, 0.9/100'000, 0.6/100'000 children <15 years in 2016, 2017, 2018, respectively. Poliovirus was not identified, whereas NPEVs were detected in 19.4% (7/36) of AFP cases. The presence of one Echovirus-25 (2016), two EV- and D68 (2016 and 2018), one EV-A71 (2016), and one Echovirus-30 (2016) sharing high nucleotide identity with NPEVs detected in Europe was identified.

CONCLUSION

The absence of polio was confirmed. The unpredicted detection of emerging EV-D68, EV-A71, and E-30 sharing high sequence nucleotide similarity with viruses involved in the latest outbreaks, provided valuable and up-to-date information, emphasizing the importance of monitoring NPEVs through AFPS.