The Use of GIS Technology to Optimize COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: A Case Study of the City of Warsaw, Poland

Analysis and prediction of infectious diseases based on spatial visualization and machine learning

Infectious diseases are a global public health problem that poses a threat to human society. Since the 1970s, constantly mutated new infectious viruses have been quietly attacking humanity, and at least one new type of infectious disease is discovered every year. Therefore, early warning of infectious diseases will greatly reduce the socio-economic harm of infectious diseases. This study is based on the data of COVID-19 epidemic in China (except Macau and Taiwan Province) from 2020 to 2022. Firstly, we used ArcGIS software to analyze the spatial agglomeration pattern of the number of patients in various regions of China through global spatial autocorrelation analysis, local spatial autocorrelation analysis, center of gravity trajectory migration algorithm and other statistical tools; In addition, the areas with serious COVID-19 epidemic and requiring special attention were screened out. Then, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), extreme learning machine (ELM), support vector regression (SVR), wavelet neural network (Wavelet), recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) were used to predict COVID-19 epidemic data in Guangdong Province, China; And the prediction performance of each model was compared through prediction accuracy indicators. Finally, a multi algorithm fusion learning model based on stacking technology is proposed to address the problem of poor generalization ability of single algorithm models in prediction; Furthermore, radial basis function network (RBF) was used as a two-level meta learner to fuse the above models, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used to optimize RBF parameters to reduce generalization error. The experimental results show that the performance of the integrated model is better than that of the single model in the COVID-19 dataset. In order to better apply the stacking model to the prediction of new infectious diseases, we applied the prediction model based on the COVID-19 dataset to the prediction of the number of AIDS and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases, and verified the wide applicability of our model in the prediction of infectious diseases.

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Promoting Vaccination and Public Health Resilience, a Narrative Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical importance of adaptable and resilient public health systems capable of rapid response to emerging health crises. This paper synthesizes the lessons learned from the COVID-19 vaccination campaign and explores strategies to enhance vaccine uptake in the post-pandemic era. Key challenges identified include logistical, economic, sociocultural, and policy dimensions that impact vaccination efforts, particularly in low-resource settings. The analysis highlights the need for resilient supply chains, effective communication, community engagement, and equitable access to healthcare resources. The rapid development and deployment of mRNA vaccines exemplify the potential of innovative vaccine technologies, though public trust and acceptance remain crucial. Strategies such as partnerships with local leaders, tailored messaging, and integration of digital tools are essential for combating vaccine hesitancy. By applying these insights, future vaccination campaigns can be more efficient, equitable, and resilient, ultimately improving public health outcomes globally. This paper aims to inform policy and practice, ensuring that public health strategies are evidence based and context specific, thus better preparing for future health challenges.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Public Health: Addressing Global, Regional, and Within-Country Inequalities

The COVID-19 pandemic, with over 775 million cases and 7 million deaths by May 2024, has drastically impacted global public health and exacerbated existing healthcare inequalities. The swift development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines have been critical in combating the virus, yet disparities in access to and administration of the vaccine have highlighted deep-seated inequities at global, regional, and national levels. Wealthier nations have benefited from early access to vaccines, while low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have faced persistent shortages. Initiatives such as COVAX aimed to address these disparities, but challenges persist. Socioeconomic factors, education, ethnic identity, and the healthcare infrastructure play crucial roles in vaccine equity. For example, lower-income individuals often face barriers such as poor access to healthcare, misinformation, and logistical challenges, particularly in rural areas. Addressing these inequities requires a multifaceted approach, integrating national policies with local strategies to enhance vaccines' accessibility, counter misinformation, and ensure equitable distribution. Collaborative efforts at all levels are essential to promote vaccine equity and effectively control the pandemic, ensuring that all populations have fair access to life-saving vaccines. This review explores these complex issues, offering insights into the barriers and facilitators of vaccine equity and providing recommendations to promote more equitable and effective vaccination programs. With a focus on the different levels at which vaccination policies are planned and implemented, the text provides guidelines to steer vaccination strategies, emphasizing the role of international cooperation and local policy frameworks as keys to achieving equitable vaccination coverage.

Optimizing Spatio-Temporal Allocation of the COVID-19 Vaccine Under Different Epidemiological Landscapes

An efficient and safe vaccine is expected to allow people to return to normal life as soon as possible. However, vaccines for new diseases are likely to be in short supply during the initial deployment due to narrow production capacity and logistics. There is an urgent need to optimize the allocation of limited vaccines to improve the population effectiveness of vaccination. Existing studies mostly address a single epidemiological landscape. The robustness of the effectiveness of other proposed strategies is difficult to guarantee under other landscapes. In this study, a novel vaccination allocation model based on spatio-temporal heterogeneity of epidemiological landscapes is proposed. This model was combined with optimization algorithms to determine the near-optimal spatio-temporal allocation for vaccines with different effectiveness and coverage. We fully simulated the epidemiological landscapes during vaccination, and then minimized objective functions independently under various epidemiological landscapes and degrees of viral transmission. We find that if all subregions are in the middle or late stages of the pandemic, the difference between the effectiveness of the near-optimal and pro-rata strategies is very small in most cases. In contrast, under other epidemiological landscapes, when minimizing deaths, the optimizer tends to allocate the remaining doses to sub-regions with relatively higher risk and expected coverage after covering the elderly. While to minimize symptomatic infections, allocating vaccines first to the higher-risk sub-regions is near-optimal. This means that the pro-rata allocation is a good option when the subregions are all in the middle to late stages of the pandemic. Moreover, we suggest that if all subregions are in the period of rapid virus transmission, vaccines should be administered to older adults in all subregions simultaneously, while when the epidemiological dynamics of the subregions are significantly different, priority can be given to older adults in subregions that are still in the early stages of the pandemic. After covering the elderly in the region, high-risk sub-regions can be prioritized.

Access to the COVID-19 services during the pandemic - a scoping review

Appropriate accessibility to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) services is essential in the efficient management of the pandemic. Different geospatial methods and approaches have been used to measure accessibility to COVID-19 health-related services. This scoping review aimed to summarize and synthesize the geospatial studies conducted to measure accessibility to COVID-19 healthcare services. Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed were searched to find relevant studies. From 1113 retrieved unique citations, 26 articles were selected to be reviewed. Most of the studies were conducted in the USA and floating catchment area methods were mostly used to measure the spatial accessibility to COVID-19 services including vaccination centres, Intensive Care Unit beds, hospitals and test sites. More attention is needed to measure the accessibility of COVID-19 services to different types of users especially with combining different non-spatial factors which could lead to better allocation of resources especially in populations with limited resources.

Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Centers Distribution: A Case Study of the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies in history. In late 2020 and after almost a year from the initial outbreak of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), several vaccines were approved and administered in most countries. Saudi Arabia has established COVID-19 vaccination centers in all regions. Various facilities were selected to set up these vaccination centers, including conference and exhibition centers, old airport terminals, pre-existing medical facilities, and primary healthcare centers. Deciding the number and locations of these facilities is a fundamental objective for successful epidemic responses to ensure the delivery of vaccines and other health services to the entire population. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of COVID-19 vaccination centers in Jeddah, a major city in Saudi Arabia, by using GIS tools and methods to provide insight on the effectiveness of the selection and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccination centers in terms of accessibility and coverage. Based on a spatial analysis of vaccine centers' coverage in 2020 and 2021 in Jeddah presented in this study, coverage deficiency would have been addressed earlier if the applied GIS analysis methods had been used by authorities while gradually increasing the number of vaccination centers. This study recommends that the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia evaluated the assigned vaccination centers to include the less-populated regions and to ensure equity and fairness in vaccine distribution. Adding more vaccine centers or reallocating some existing centers in the denser districts to increase the coverage in the uncovered sparse regions in Jeddah is also recommended. The methods applied in this study could be part of a strategic vaccination administration program for future public health emergencies and other vaccination campaigns.

COVID-19 vaccine prioritization based on district classification in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia

Due to limited availability, Indonesia's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination will be done in 4 stages until herd immunity has been reached. Yogyakarta, an education and tourist destination, needs to get a specific, spatial estimation of the exact need for COVID-19 vaccination without delay. This study sheds light on identifying which districts should be prioritized at each vaccination phase. Secondary data collected from provincial, and county-level statistical agencies were quantitatively calculated by the Z-Score method. The results indicate that the first phase of vaccination should prioritize Pengasih and Sentolo districts in Kulon Progo Regency, which have a large number of health workers; the districts of Depok, Banguntapan, Piyungan, Sewon, Wonosari, Gamping, Mlati and Ngaglik should be done in the second phase based on the fact that these districts have many public service officials as well as elderly people; Umbulharjo and Depok districts will be approached in the third phase since they have more vulnerable groups and facilities that may promote COVID- 19 transmission during their daily activities; while the fourth phase should focus on the districts of Banguntapan, Sewon, Kasihan, Gamping, Mlati, Depok, and Ngaglik due to the intensity of COVID-19 clusters discovered there. Overall, vaccination would be given the priority in the districts with the largest number of people in need, i.e., public service officers, elderly people and those likely to be exposed to the coronavirus causing COVID-19.

Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination: A Scoping Review

Spatial analysis of COVID-19 vaccination research is increasing in recent literature due to the availability of COVID-19 vaccination data that usually contain location components. However, to our knowledge, no previous study has provided a comprehensive review of this research area. Therefore, in this scoping review, we examined the breadth of spatial and spatiotemporal vaccination studies to summarize previous findings, highlight research gaps, and provide guidelines for future research. We performed this review according to the five-stage methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley. We screened all articles published in PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases, as of 21 September 2021, that had employed at least one form of spatial analysis of COVID-19 vaccination. In total, 36 articles met the inclusion criteria and were organized into four main themes: disease surveillance (n = 35); risk analysis (n = 14); health access (n = 16); and community health profiling (n = 2). Our findings suggested that most studies utilized preliminary spatial analysis techniques, such as disease mapping, which might not lead to robust inferences. Moreover, few studies addressed data quality, modifiable areal unit problems, and spatial dependence, highlighting the need for more sophisticated spatial and spatiotemporal analysis techniques.

A Data-Driven Digital Application to Enhance the Capacity Planning of the COVID-19 Vaccination Process

In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) is presented that focuses on the capacity planning of the COVID-19 vaccination process in the Netherlands. With the Dutch national vaccination priority list as the starting point, the DSS aims to minimize the per-class waiting-time with respect to (1) the locations of the medical hubs (i.e., the vaccination locations) and (2) the distribution of the available vaccines and healthcare professionals (over time). As the user is given the freedom to experiment with different starting positions and strategies, the DSS is ideally suited for providing support in the dynamic environment of the COVID-19 vaccination process. In addition to the DSS, a mathematical model to support the assignment of inhabitants to medical hubs is presented. This model has been satisfactorily implemented in practice in close collaboration with the Dutch Municipal and Regional Health Service (GGD GHOR Nederland).

Measuring COVID-19 vaccination coverage: an enhanced age-adjusted two-step floating catchment area model

BACKGROUND

There are only limited studies on access to COVID-19 vaccines and identifying the most appropriate health centres for performing vaccination in metropolitan areas. This study aimed to measure potential spatial access to COVID-19 vaccination centres in Mashhad, the second-most populous city in Iran.

METHODS

The 2021 age structure of the urban census tracts was integrated into the enhanced two-step floating catchment area model to improve accuracy. The model was developed based on three different access scenarios: only public hospitals, only public healthcare centres and both (either hospitals or healthcare centres) as potential vaccination facilities. The weighted decision-matrix and analytic hierarchy process, based on four criteria (i.e. service area, accessibility index, capacity of vaccination centres and distance to main roads), were used to choose potential vaccination centres looking for the highest suitability for residents. Global Moran's index (GMI) was used to measure the spatial autocorrelation of the accessibility index in different scenarios and the proposed model.

RESULTS

There were 26 public hospitals and 271 public healthcare centres in the study area. Although the exclusive use of public healthcare centres for vaccination can provide the highest accessibility in the eastern and north-eastern parts of the study area, our findings indicate that including both public hospitals and public healthcare centres provide high accessibility to vaccination in central urban part. Therefore, a combination of public hospitals and public healthcare centres is recommended for efficient vaccination coverage. The value of GMI for the proposed model (accessibility to selected vaccination centres) was calculated as 0.53 (Z = 162.42, P < 0.01). Both GMI and Z-score values decreased in the proposed model, suggesting an enhancement in accessibility to COVID-19 vaccination services.

CONCLUSIONS

The periphery and poor areas of the city had the least access to COVID-19 vaccination centres. Measuring spatial access to COVID-19 vaccination centres can provide valuable insights for urban public health decision-makers. Our model, coupled with geographical information systems, provides more efficient vaccination coverage by identifying the most suitable healthcare centres, which is of special importance when only few centres are available.

E-health roadmap for COVID-19 vaccine coverage in Iran

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is the effective and long-term pharmacological solution to deal with COVID-19. Information technology (IT) and electronic immunization can be effective in accelerating and improving vaccine coverage. The aim of this paper is to develop multi-dimensional framework of e-health roadmap to response Covod-19 pandemic and examine the role of IT for improving vaccine distribution in Iran.

METHODS

The study methodology was based on a two-stage Delphi method which included literature studies at the beginning. Key steps in creating a roadmap in this study include definition, development and evaluation. The initial conceptual model was developed after literature review. Proposed roadmap was reviewed and evaluated in two stages based on the Delphi method by experts in the fields of E-health.

RESULTS

In the e-health roadmap model, 14 stages of vaccine distribution were presented in three phases of vaccination and then were determined the type of technology in each phase. The 4 conceptual models were approved based on the two stages Delphi approach in a survey of 14 e-health experts. In the second phase of the Delphi process, the selected items were sent back to the specialists to verification. Then e-health roadmap was confirmed by experts and was finalized the approved model.

CONCLUSIONS

The technology-based roadmap is one plan in the form of a transfer strategy that aligns goals with specific technical solutions and helps to meet them. This roadmap empowers decision makers to decide on alternative paths and achieve goals.