The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China

Willingness to bear the first child among the Chinese childless population: a national survey study

BACKGROUND

Having a first child is a contributing factor to having a second or third child; however, current research focuses on second and third children, and the present study aims to investigate the intention to have a first child and its main influencing factors among the childless population aged 15-49 in China, as well as analysing the influencing factors by age group.

METHOD

As part of the 'Survey on the Psychology and Behaviour of Chinese Residents', this survey was conducted on 6941 residents aged 15-49 in 32 provinces across China. The survey was conducted from 20 June to 31 August 2022.

RESULT

Out of 6941 respondents, the mean score of willingness to have a first child (score range: 0-100) was 42.51. 17.33% of the respondents had no willingness to have a child (0), while 9.54% had a high willingness to have a child (100). Intention to have a first child seems to peak in the age group 30-34 years (p < 0.0001). Being male (p < 0.000, OR = 0.178), having siblings (p1 < 0.035, OR1 = 1.324; p2 < 0.000, OR2 = 1.995) and good family communication (p < 0.003, OR = 1.023), and high self-efficacy (p = 0.001, OR = 1.558) were associated with higher fertility intentions. Influential factors in the lower age group (15-24 years) were mainly related to family and social support, in the 25-29 years age group they were more related to personal, family and social, while in the 30-39 years age group they were related to economic stability such as property and marital status.

CONCLUSIONS

The willingness to have a child is at a low to medium level among those of childbearing age who have not had children in China. There is a need to adopt a staggered policy for the younger age group to reduce perceived economic pressure, reduce occupational pressure on the age group, and increase childcare and occupational fertility friendly environments. In addition, there is a need for multisectoral economic compensation and educational district planning to alleviate the "don't want to save" and solve the "don't dare to give birth" problem. People who have had one child are more likely to want to have a second child, so the government and society need to do more to support the desire to have a child, thereby increasing the national fertility rate.

Urban public services and fertility intentions of internal migrants in China

As China continues to implement its progressive fertility promotion policy, there has been a drastic decline in the fertility rate. Given that the migrant population constitutes more than a quarter of China's total population, enhancing the willingness of this demographic to have additional children through policy-guided urban public services is pivotal for optimizing China's population development strategy. This study analyzes the influence of urban public services on the reproductive intentions of the migrant population, utilizing data from 110,667 migrant families with one child, drawn from China's Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring data in 2016 and 2018. The data analysis reveals several key findings: (1) Urban public services, overall, exhibit a notable positive effect on the willingness of the migrant population to have more children, albeit with limitations and a declining trend. (2) Among urban public services, primary basic education significantly impacts the willingness of the migrant population to expand their families. (3) Large cities have created a 'reverse screening' effect on the migrant population, leading to differential access to public services. This scenario caters effectively to the high human capital migrant individuals while reducing accessibility to livelihood public services for the low human capital migrant population. This paper critically evaluates China's progressively adjusted fertility policy from the perspective of the migrant population. It underscores the necessity of establishing a comprehensive fertility support policy system across China.

The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data

Declining total fertility rates pose a severe challenge to the economy, society, culture, and politics of any region. Low fertility rates among China's rural floating population with strong fertility are aggravating these challenges. Previous research has confirmed the relationships between health insurance and fertility intention. However, it is still unclear whether the existing association is favorable or not. Moreover, the majority of existing studies in China employ data from either urban or rural populations, whereas evidence from rural floating populations remains scarce. Based on the "China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS)" in 2016, the current study used the logistic regression model to explore the impact of health insurance policy on the fertility intention of the rural floating population in China. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to address potential selection bias. Three important findings were observed: Firstly, participating in the Basic Medical Insurance System (BMISUR) significantly improved rural floating populations' fertility intentions in China. Secondly, the association between age and the fertility intention of the floating population was "inverted u-shaped" with the highest fertility intention among those aged 25 to 34. There was also a positive correlation between personal income and fertility intention, and it was found between local housing purchase, formal employment, the co-residents scale, and the fertility intention in the rural floating population in China. Interprovincial mobility was positively associated with the fertility intention among rural migrants. Thirdly, the impact of health insurance policies on the fertility intention of the rural migrant population varies by gender, age, and inflow areas. The aforementioned findings can guide the Chinese government in its efforts to improve the fertility intention of the rural floating population, reform the social security system with a focus on "targets", and implement differentiated welfare policies aimed at promoting the equalization of basic public services, thereby contributing to China's population structure and long-term development.

Fertility Intention and Influencing Factors for Having a Second Child among Floating Women of Childbearing Age

In recent years, an increasing number of women participate in population mobility and most of them are of childbearing age. With the continuous expansion of the population size of this group, their fertility intention will have a great impact on the development of China's population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the fertility intention and influencing factors on having a second child in floating women. This study employed the data from the 2018 National Migrants Dynamic Monitoring Survey data. A self-designed questionnaire was used to collect information, such as socio-demographics and fertility intention. Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out to obtain the basic characteristics of the main variables. Chi-square and ANOVA tests were used to analyze the differences in the basic characteristics between three groups of women (with intention, without intention and unsure about having a second child). Multinomial logistic regression was employed to analyze influencing factors associated with fertility intention among the floating women. The results of this study indicated that only 13.07% of the floating women had the intention to have a second child, while 67.73% had no intention of having another child. In the multivariate analysis, age, gender and age of the first child, reproductive health education, employment status and medical insurance were found to be significant influencing factors of fertility intention (p < 0.05), while education level and household registration type were not associated with the desire to have a second child (p > 0.05). Overall, after the implementation of the universal two-child policy, floating women of childbearing age have reduced intention to have a second child. Reproductive health education and medical insurance play an important role in ensuring the fertility of floating women. This reminds government departments to consider the above factors comprehensively when formulating the next work plan.