Scenario simulation-based assessment of trip difficulty for urban residents under rainstorm waterlogging

Urban waterlogging structure risk assessment and enhancement

Urban waterlogging patches reflect spatial patterns indicative of drainage system limitations and management challenges, and help pinpoint potential waterlogging impacts and spread risks. Therefore, by constructing an urban waterlogging model to simulate the extent and depth of waterlogging, the Number of Patches index (NP) is used to reflect the number of waterlogging patches, the Related Circumscribing Circle index (Circle) is used to evaluate the potential impact range of waterlogging, the Euclidean Nearest-Neighbor Distance index (ENN) is used to assess the potential connectivity of waterlogging, and the Interspersion and Juxtaposition Index (IJI) is used to assess the difficulty of retrofitting vulnerable points. Finally, the improvement of waterlogging structure is achieved by utilizing Vehicle-mounted Drainage Pump (VDPs). The research results demonstrate that as the return period increases, the waterlogging area (TA) and NP index show an upward trend, while the ENN index shows a downward trend. The Circle index initially decreases and then increases, reaching its lowest point at a one-year return period (1yr). The IJI index is related to the growth of TA, and in the two-year return period (2yr) and fifty-year return period (50yr) design scenarios, both TA and IJI indexshow significant growth. After the deployment of VDPs, the maximum area of waterlogging elimination reaches 0.46 km2 at a five-year return period (5yr). The drainage system reaches its drainage limit at 2yr, and the VDPs achieves its drainage limit at 5yr. The NP index does not decrease significantly, but in the case of a 5yr, the high-density area decreases by 1.66 km2. The Circle index values decrease across the board, and in the case of a 5yr, the potential impact range decreases by 1.92 km2, with 134 roads restored for traffic. The change in the ENN index decreased from 23.35 to 0.82, indicating that the spread of waterlogging can be more effectively controlled at lower return periods. The changes in the IJI index are more complex, with negative adjustments between 5 and 20yr, reducing the degree of mixing of different levels of waterlogging in the remaining return periods. Overall, with the increase of rainfall return period, the waterlogging area increases, the number of patches increases, the shape becomes irregular, the distance between patches decreases, and the potential connectivity increases. After the deployment of VDPs, the system integrity is improved, the waterlogging impact range is reduced, the impact on pedestrians and facilities is mitigated, and the risk of pollutant propagation and expansion of waterlogging area is reduced. This study contributes to reducing the potential risk of waterlogging, improving urban drainage effectiveness, and enhancing the resilience and emergency response capability of cities.

Assessment of the urban waterlogging resilience and identification of its driving factors: A case study of Wuhan City, China

With rapid urbanization and extreme rainstorm events associated with climate change, urban waterlogging has become one of the most frequent and severe disasters globally. In this study, a multi-dimensional and multi-process index system based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework was developed to measure the level of urban waterlogging resilience (UWR). The spatial distribution of UWR on a block scale was explored based on the entropy weight method with the natural breakpoint method (EWM-NBM) in the central district of Wuhan City, China. In addition, the effects of the runoff control facilities and early warning measures on UWR were also quantified. Further, the Geodetector was used to investigate the main driving factors of UWR and their interactions. Results showed that the constructed index system for UWR based on the PSR framework performed reasonably, and the EWM-NBM was validated to be effective in the integrated assessment. In terms of the validation results, 82.72 % of the recorded waterlogging points belonged to high and very-high risk levels. The spatial heterogeneity of UWR was significant in the study area where the higher-level UWR mainly appears in the areas near the undeveloped suburban and water bodies (lakes and rivers), and the lower-level UWR was concentrated in central urban areas with more impervious surfaces. There was a clear increasing trend in UWR after the implementation of runoff control facilities and early warning measures, but its spatial distribution remained almost invariant. Among all the indexes, the impervious surface percentage had the strongest (69.58 %) explanatory ability for the UWR, and mean annual precipitation (15.51 %), GDP (14.03 %), and population density (11.98 %) also demanded attention. Most driving factors of UWR showed nonlinear interactions. This research could provide a benchmark for urban planning to enhance UWR to mitigate the waterlogging within the main urban area.

Urban Flood Modeling and Risk Assessment with Limited Observation Data: The Beijing Future Science City of China

The frequency of urban storms has increased, influenced by the climate changing and urbanization, and the process of urban rainfall runoff has also changed, leading to severe urban waterlogging problems. Against this background, the risk of urban waterlogging was analyzed and assessed accurately, using an urban stormwater model as necessary. Most studies have used urban hydrological models to assess flood risk; however, due to limited flow pipeline data, the calibration and the validation of the models are difficult. This study applied the MIKE URBAN model to build a drainage system model in the Beijing Future Science City of China, where the discharge of pipelines was absent. Three methods, of empirical calibration, formula validation, and validation based on field investigation, were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the model. After the empirical calibration, the relative error range between the simulated value and the measured value was verified by the formula as within 25%. The simulated runoff depth was consistent with a field survey verified by the method of validation based on field investigation, showing the model has good applicability in the study area. Then, the rainfall scenarios of different return periods were designed and simulated. Simulation results showed that, for the 10-year return period, there are overflow pipe sections in northern and southern regions, and the number of overflow pipe sections in the northern region is more than that in the southern region. For the 20-year return period and 50-year return period, the number of overflow pipe sections and nodes in the northern region increased, while for the 100-year return period, the number of overflow nodes both increased. With the increase in the rainfall return period, the pipe network load increased, the points and sections prone to accumulation and waterlogging increased, and the regional waterlogging risk increased. The southern region is prone to waterlogging because the pipeline network density is higher than that in the northern region and the terrain is low-lying. This study provides a reference for the establishment of rainwater drainage models in regions with similar database limitations and provides a technical reference for the calibration and validation of stormwater models that lack rainfall runoff data.

Research Progress of Urban Floods under Climate Change and Urbanization: A Scientometric Analysis

Urban floods research has been attracting extensive attention with the increasing threat of flood risk and environmental hazards due to global climate change and urbanization. However, there is rarely a comprehensive review of this field and it remains unclear how the research topics on urban floods have evolved. In this study, we analyzed the development of urban floods research and explored the hotspots and frontiers of this field by scientific knowledge mapping. In total, 3314 published articles from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed. The results suggest that the number of published articles in the field of urban floods generally has an upward trend year by year, and the research focus has shifted from exploring hydrological processes to adopting advanced management measures to solve urban flood problems. Moreover, urban stormwater management and low impact development in the context of climate change and urbanization have gradually become research hotspots. Future research directions based on the status and trends of the urban floods field were also discussed. This research can not only inspire other researchers and policymakers, but also demonstrates the effectiveness of scientific knowledge mapping analysis by the use of the software CiteSpace and VOSviewer.

Optimization of Impervious Surface Space Layout for Prevention of Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

With the rapid expansion of impervious surfaces, urban waterlogging has become a typical "urban disease" in China, seriously hindering the sustainable development of cities. Therefore, reducing the impact of impervious surfaces on surface runoff is an effective approach to alleviate urban waterlogging. Presently, the development mode of many cities in China has shifted from an increase in urban scale to the improvement of urban quality through urban renewal, which is the current and future development path for most cities. Optimizing the design of impervious surfaces in urban renewal planning to reduce its impact on surface runoff is an important way to prevent and control urban waterlogging. The aim of this research is to construct an optimization model of impervious surface space layout under the framework of a geographic simulation technology-integrated ant colony optimization (ACO) and Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) model (ACO-SCS) in a case study of Guangzhou in China. Urban runoff plots in the study area are divided according to the area of the urban planning unit. With the goal of minimizing the runoff coefficient, the optimal space layout of the impervious surfaces is obtained, which provides a technical method and reference for urban waterlogging prevention and control through urban renewal planning. The results reveal that the optimization of impervious surface space layout through ACO-SCS achieves a satisfactory effect with an average optimization rate of 9.52%, and a maximum optimization rate of 33.16%. The research also shows that the initial impervious surface layout is the key influencing factor in ACO-SCS. In the urban renewal planning stage, the space layout of the impervious surfaces with a high-low-high density discontinuous connection can be constructed by transforming medium-density impervious surfaces into low-density impervious surfaces to achieve the flat and long-type agglomeration of the low-density and high-density impervious surfaces, which can effectively reduce the influence of urban development on surface runoff. There is spatial heterogeneity of the optimal results in different urban runoff plots. Therefore, the policy of urban renewal planning for urban waterlogging prevention and control should be different. The optimized results of impervious surface space layout provide useful reference information for urban renewal planning.

Spatiotemporal Variance Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Affected by Impervious Surface Expansion: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

Urban rainstorm waterlogging has become a typical “city disease” in China. It can result in a huge loss of social economy and personal property, accordingly hindering the sustainable development of a city. Impervious surface expansion, especially the irregular spatial pattern of impervious surfaces, derived from rapid urbanization processes has been proven to be one of the main influential factors behind urban waterlogging. Therefore, optimizing the spatial pattern of impervious surfaces through urban renewal is an effective channel through which to attenuate urban waterlogging risk for developed urban areas. However, the most important step for the optimization of the spatial pattern of impervious surfaces is to understand the mechanism of the impact of urbanization processes, especially the spatiotemporal pattern of impervious surfaces, on urban waterlogging. This research aims to elucidate the mechanism of urbanization’s impact on waterlogging by analysing the spatiotemporal characteristics and variance of urban waterlogging affected by urban impervious surfaces in a case study of Guangzhou in China. First, the study area was divided into runoff plots by means of the hydrologic analysis method, based on which the analysis of spatiotemporal variance was carried out. Then, due to the heterogeneity of urban impervious surface effects on waterlogging, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was utilized to assess the spatiotemporal variance of the impact of impervious surface expansion on urban rainstorm waterlogging during the period from the 1990s to the 2010s. The results reveal that urban rainstorm waterlogging significantly expanded in a dense and circular layer surrounding the city centre, similar to the impervious surface expansion affected by urbanization policies. Taking the urban runoff plot as the research unit, GWR has achieved a good modelling effect for urban storm waterlogging. The results show that the impervious surfaces in the runoff plots of the southeastern part of Yuexiu, the southern part of Tianhe and the western part of Haizhu, which have experienced major urban engineering construction, have the strongest correlation with urban rainstorm waterlogging. However, for different runoff plots, the impact of impervious surfaces on urban waterlogging is quite different, as there exist other influence factors in the various runoff plots, although the impervious surface is one of the main factors. This result means that urban renewal strategy to optimize the spatial pattern of impervious surfaces for urban rainstorm waterlogging prevention and control should be different for different runoff plots. The results of the GWR model analysis can provide useful information for urban renewal strategy-making.

Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area

Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments.

Evaluation of resident evacuations in urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on scenario simulation: Daoli district (Harbin, China) as an example

With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.

Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China

Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.