Mathematical Modelling in Biomedicine: A Primer for the Curious and the Skeptic

Agent-Based Modeling of Virtual Tumors Reveals the Critical Influence of Microenvironmental Complexity on Immunotherapy Efficacy

Since the introduction of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), immunotherapy has changed the landscape of molecular therapeutics for cancers. However, ICIs do not work equally well on all cancers and for all patients. There has been a growing interest in using mathematical and computational models to optimize clinical responses. Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have been widely used for mechanistic modeling in immuno-oncology and immunotherapy. They allow rapid simulations of temporal changes in the cellular and molecular populations involved. Nonetheless, ODEs cannot describe the spatial structure in the tumor microenvironment or quantify the influence of spatially-dependent characteristics of tumor-immune dynamics. For these reasons, agent-based models (ABMs) have gained popularity because they can model more detailed phenotypic and spatial heterogeneity that better reflect the complexity seen in vivo. In the context of anti-PD-1 ICIs, we compare treatment outcomes simulated from an ODE model and an ABM to show the importance of including spatial components in computational models of cancer immunotherapy. We consider tumor cells of high and low antigenicity and two distinct cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) killing mechanisms. The preferred mechanism differs based on the antigenicity of tumor cells. Our ABM reveals varied phenotypic shifts within the tumor and spatial organization of tumor and CTLs despite similarities in key immune parameters, initial simulation conditions, and early temporal trajectories of the cell populations.

Developing Theoretical Models for Atherosclerotic Lesions: A Methodological Approach Using Interdisciplinary Insights

Atherosclerosis, a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, necessitates advanced and innovative modeling techniques to better understand and predict plaque dynamics. The present work presents two distinct hypothetical models inspired by different research fields: the logistic map from chaos theory and Markov models from stochastic processes. The logistic map effectively models the nonlinear progression and sudden changes in plaque stability, reflecting the chaotic nature of atherosclerotic events. In contrast, Markov models, including traditional Markov chains, spatial Markov models, and Markov random fields, provide a probabilistic framework to assess plaque stability and transitions. Spatial Markov models, visualized through heatmaps, highlight the spatial distribution of transition probabilities, emphasizing local interactions and dependencies. Markov random fields incorporate complex spatial interactions, inspired by advances in physics and computational biology, but present challenges in parameter estimation and computational complexity. While these hypothetical models offer promising insights, they require rigorous validation with real-world data to confirm their accuracy and applicability. This study underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in developing theoretical models for atherosclerotic plaques.

Mathematical model explains differences in Omicron and Delta SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Caco-2 and Calu-3 cells

Within-host infection dynamics of Omicron dramatically differs from previous variants of SARS-CoV-2. However, little is still known about which parameters of virus-cell interplay contribute to the observed attenuated replication and pathogenicity of Omicron. Mathematical models, often expressed as systems of differential equations, are frequently employed to study the infection dynamics of various viruses. Adopting such models for results of in vitro experiments can be beneficial in a number of aspects, such as model simplification (e.g., the absence of adaptive immune response and innate immunity cells), better measurement accuracy, and the possibility to measure additional data types in comparison with in vivo case. In this study, we consider a refinement of our previously developed and validated model based on a system of integro-differential equations. We fit the model to the experimental data of Omicron and Delta infections in Caco-2 (human intestinal epithelium model) and Calu-3 (lung epithelium model) cell lines. The data include known information on initial conditions, infectious virus titers, and intracellular viral RNA measurements at several time points post-infection. The model accurately explains the experimental data for both variants in both cell lines using only three variant- and cell-line-specific parameters. Namely, the cell entry rate is significantly lower for Omicron, and Omicron triggers a stronger cytokine production rate (i.e., innate immune response) in infected cells, ultimately making uninfected cells resistant to the virus. Notably, differences in only a single parameter (e.g., cell entry rate) are insufficient to obtain a reliable model fit for the experimental data.

Vitamin D and Systems Biology

The biological actions of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) have been investigated intensively for over 100 years and has led to the identification of significant insights into the repertoire of its biological actions. These were initially established to be centered on the regulation of calcium transport in the colon and deposition in bone. Beyond these well-known calcemic roles, other roles have emerged in the regulation of cell differentiation processes and have an impact on metabolism. The purpose of the current review is to consider where applying systems biology (SB) approaches may begin to generate a more precise understanding of where the VDR is, and is not, biologically impactful. Two SB approaches have been developed and begun to reveal insight into VDR biological functions. In a top-down SB approach genome-wide scale data are statistically analyzed, and from which a role for the VDR emerges in terms of being a hub in a biological network. Such approaches have confirmed significant roles, for example, in myeloid differentiation and the control of inflammation and innate immunity. In a bottom-up SB approach, current biological understanding is built into a kinetic model which is then applied to existing biological data to explain the function and identify unknown behavior. To date, this has not been applied to the VDR, but has to the related ERα and identified previously unknown mechanisms of control. One arena where applying top-down and bottom-up SB approaches may be informative is in the setting of prostate cancer health disparities.

Ultimate Bounds for a Diabetes Mathematical Model Considering Glucose Homeostasis

This paper deals with a recently reported mathematical model formulated by five first-order ordinary differential equations that describe glucoregulatory dynamics. As main contributions, we found a localization domain with all compact invariant sets; we settled on sufficient conditions for the existence of a bounded positively-invariant domain. We applied the localization of compact invariant sets and Lyapunov’s direct methods to obtain these results. The localization results establish the maximum cell concentration for each variable. On the other hand, Lyapunov’s direct method provides sufficient conditions for the bounded positively-invariant domain to attract all trajectories with non-negative initial conditions. Further, we illustrate our analytical results with numerical simulations. Overall, our results are valuable information for a better understanding of this disease. Bounds and attractive domains are crucial tools to design practical applications such as insulin controllers or in silico experiments. In addition, the model can be used to understand the long-term dynamics of the system.

Relating simulation studies by provenance-Developing a family of Wnt signaling models

For many biological systems, a variety of simulation models exist. A new simulation model is rarely developed from scratch, but rather revises and extends an existing one. A key challenge, however, is to decide which model might be an appropriate starting point for a particular problem and why. To answer this question, we need to identify entities and activities that contributed to the development of a simulation model. Therefore, we exploit the provenance data model, PROV-DM, of the World Wide Web Consortium and, building on previous work, continue developing a PROV ontology for simulation studies. Based on a case study of 19 Wnt/β-catenin signaling models, we identify crucial entities and activities as well as useful metadata to both capture the provenance information from individual simulation studies and relate these forming a family of models. The approach is implemented in WebProv, a web application for inserting and querying provenance information. Our specialization of PROV-DM contains the entities Research Question, Assumption, Requirement, Qualitative Model, Simulation Model, Simulation Experiment, Simulation Data, and Wet-lab Data as well as activities referring to building, calibrating, validating, and analyzing a simulation model. We show that most Wnt simulation models are connected to other Wnt models by using (parts of) these models. However, the overlap, especially regarding the Wet-lab Data used for calibration or validation of the models is small. Making these aspects of developing a model explicit and queryable is an important step for assessing and reusing simulation models more effectively. Exposing this information helps to integrate a new simulation model within a family of existing ones and may lead to the development of more robust and valid simulation models. We hope that our approach becomes part of a standardization effort and that modelers adopt the benefits of provenance when considering or creating simulation models.

We revise a provenance ontology for simulation studies of cellular biochemical models. Provenance information is useful for understanding the creation of a simulation model because it not only contains information about the entities and activities that have led to a simulation model but also their relations, all of which can be visualized. It provides additional structure by explicitly recording research questions, assumptions, and requirements and relating them along with data, qualitative models, simulation models, and simulation experiments through a small set of predefined but extensible activities.

We have applied our concept to a family of 19 Wnt signaling models and implemented a web-based tool (WebProv) to store the provenance information from these studies. The resulting provenance graph visualizes the story line of simulation studies and demonstrates the creation and calibration of simulation models, the successive attempts of validation and extension, and shows, beyond an individual simulation study, how the Wnt models are related. Thereby, the steps and sources that contributed to a simulation model are made explicit.

Our approach complements other approaches aimed at facilitating the reuse and assessment of simulation products in systems biology such as model repositories as well as annotation and documentation guidelines.