Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer

Update on the management of older patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a perspective from medical oncology

In the context of pancreatic cancer, surgical intervention is typically recommended for localized tumours, whereas chemotherapy is the preferred approach in the advanced and/or metastatic setting. However, pancreatic cancer is closely linked to ageing, with an average diagnosis at 72 years. Paradoxically, despite its increased occurrence among older individuals, this population is often underrepresented in clinical studies, complicating the decision-making process. Age alone should not determine the therapeutic strategy but, given the high comorbidity and mortality of this disease, a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is necessary to define the best treatment, prevent toxicity, and optimize older patient care. In this review, a group of experts from the Oncogeriatrics Section of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (Sociedad Española de Oncología Médica, SEOM), the Spanish Cooperative Group for the Treatment of Digestive Tumours (Grupo Español de Tratamiento de los Tumores Digestivos, TTD), and the Multidisciplinary Spanish Group of Digestive Cancer (Grupo Español Multidisciplinar en Cáncer Digestivo, GEMCAD) have assessed the available scientific evidence and propose a series of recommendations on the management and treatment of the older population with pancreatic cancer.

Primary Treatment Modification and Treatment Tolerability Among Older Chemotherapy Recipients With Advanced Cancer

Importance

Older adults with advanced cancer are less likely to tolerate treatment with cytotoxic chemotherapy compared with younger patients due to their aging-related conditions. Hence, oncologists sometimes opt to employ primary treatment modifications (deviation from standard of care) during the first cycle of chemotherapy.

Objective

To examine the association between primary treatment modification and treatment tolerability in older adults with advanced cancer who were starting new palliative chemotherapy regimens.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was a secondary analysis of the GAP70+ (Geriatric Assessment Intervention for Reducing Toxicity in Older Patients with Advanced Cancer) trial, which was conducted between July 2014 and March 2019. The GAP70+ trial included patients aged 70 years or older who had advanced (ie, incurable) cancer, had 1 or more geriatric assessment domain impairments, and planned to start a new palliative chemotherapy regimen. Data analysis was conducted in November 2022.

Exposures

Receipt of standard-of-care chemotherapy regimens vs primary treatment modification defined as any change from National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines or published clinical trials (eg, primary dose reduction, schedule change).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Tolerability outcomes were assessed within 3 months of treatment. These outcomes included the following: (1) any grade 3 to 5 toxic effect, according to the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events; (2) patient-reported functional decline, defined as the development of worse dependency in activities of daily living using scale scores; and (3) a composite adverse outcome (an end point that combined toxic effects, functional decline, and 6-month overall survival). Multivariable cluster-weighted generalized estimating equation models examined the association between primary treatment modification and outcomes adjusting for covariates.

Results

This study included 609 patients with a mean (SD) age of 77.2 (5.2) years; more than half (333 [54.7%]) were men. Race and ethnicity was available for 607 patients: 39 (6.4%) were Black, 539 (88.5%) were non-Hispanic White, and 29 (4.8%) were of other race or ethnicity. Nearly half (281 [46.1%]) received a primary modified treatment regimen. The most common cancer types were gastrointestinal cancer (228 [37.4%]) and lung cancer (174 [28.6%]). In multivariable analysis, primary treatment modification was associated with a reduced risk of grade 3 to 5 toxic effects (relative risk [RR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.77-0.94]) and functional decline (RR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]). Patients who received primary treatment modification had 32.0% lower odds of having a worse composite adverse outcome (odds ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.48-0.97]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, primary treatment modification was associated with improved tolerability of chemotherapeutic regimens among older adults with advanced cancer and aging-related conditions. These findings may help optimize cancer treatment dosing in older adults with advanced cancer and aging-related conditions.

A review of the utility of prognostic tools in predicting 6-month mortality in cancer patients, conducted in the context of voluntary assisted dying

BACKGROUND

Eligibility to access the Victorian voluntary assisted dying (VAD) legislation requires that people have a prognosis of 6 months or less (or 12 months or less in the setting of a neurodegenerative diagnosis). Yet prognostic determination is frequently inaccurate and prompts clinician discomfort. Based on functional capacity and clinical and biochemical markers, prognostic tools have been developed to increase the accuracy of life expectancy predictions.

AIMS

This review of prognostic tools explores their accuracy to determine 6-month mortality in adults when treated under palliative care with a primary diagnosis of cancer (the diagnosis of a large proportion of people who are requesting VAD).

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was performed on electronic databases Medline, Embase and Cinahl.

RESULTS

Limitations of prognostication identified include the following: (i) prognostic tools still provide uncertain prognoses; (ii) prognostic tools have greater accuracy predicting shorter prognoses, such as weeks to months, rather than 6 months; and (iii) functionality was often weighted significantly when calculating prognoses. Challenges of prognostication identified include the following: (i) the area under the curve (a value that represents how well a model can distinguish between two outcomes) cannot be directly interpreted clinically and (ii) difficulties exist related to determining appropriate thresholds of accuracy in this context.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostication is a significant aspect of VAD, and the utility of the currently available prognostic tools appears limited but may prompt discussions about prognosis and alternative means (other than prognostic estimates) to identify those eligible for VAD.

Predicting Risk of Severe Toxicity and Early Death in Older Adult Patients Treated with Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Determining the risk of grade 3-5 toxicity and early death (ED) is important to plan chemotherapy in older adult patients with cancer. Our objective was to identify factors predicting these complications at the time of treatment initiation.

METHODS

234 patients aged ≥70 were subjected to a geriatric assessment and variables related to the tumor and the treatment were also collected. Logistic regression multivariable analysis was used to relate these factors with the appearance of grade 3-5 toxicity and ED. Predictive scores for both toxicity and ED were then developed.

RESULTS

Factors related to grade 3-5 toxicity were hemoglobin, MAX2 index, ADL, and the CONUT score. Factors related to ED were tumor stage and the GNRI score. Two predictive scores were developed using these variables. ROC curves for the prediction of toxicity and ED were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.64-0.78) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Two simple and reliable scores were developed to predict grade 3-5 toxicity and ED in older adult patients with cancer. This may be helpful in treatment planning.

Clinical Score to Predict Recurrence in Patients with Stage II and Stage III Colon Cancer

Background: The prognosis of patients with stage II and stage III colon cancer is heterogeneous. Clinical and pathological characteristics, such as tumor budding, may help to further refine the recurrence risk. Methods: We included all the patients with localized colon cancer at Hospital Universitario La Paz from October 2016 to October 2021. We built a prognostic score for recurrence in the training cohort based on multivariate cox regression analysis and categorized the patients into two risk groups. Results: A total of 440 patients were included in the training cohort. After a median follow-up of 45 months, 81 (18%) patients had a first tumor recurrence. T4, N2, and high tumor budding remained with a p value <0.05 at the last step of the multivariate cox regression model for time to recurrence (TTR). We assigned 2 points to T4 and 1 point to N2 and high tumor budding. Forty-five percent of the patients were assigned to the low-risk group (score = 0). Compared to the high-risk group (score 1−4), patients in the low-risk group had a significantly longer TTR (hazard ratio for disease recurrence of 0.14 (95%CI: 0.00 to 0.90; p < 0.045)). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: In our study, we built a simple score to predict tumor recurrence based on T4, N2, and high tumor budding. Patients in the low-risk group, that comprised 44% of the cohort, had an excellent prognosis.

The Relationship Between the Presence of White Nails and Readmission Among Rural Older Admitted Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Nail changes can indicate systemic changes within the body. According to previous studies, white nails, characterized by the whitening of the proximal nails with the absence of a lunula, were related to in-hospital mortality in rural community hospitals. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between the presence of white nails and readmissions among rural older patients who had previously been discharged from rural community hospitals.

Methodology

The relationship between white nails and readmissions among admitted older patients discharged from community hospitals was investigated. This was a single-center prospective study. All patients >65 years admitted from April 2020 to March 2021 and readmitted between April 2020 and June 2021 were included in the study. Upon admission, all patients’ nails were evaluated by trained evaluators for whitening. The presence of white nails was correlated with readmission using a multivariate logistic regression model.

Results

Approximately 28.7% of all participants were readmitted to the hospital during the study period; 41.1% had white nails, and 24.6% did not. Cox hazard model was used to analyze the relationship between readmission and white nails. Of all 637 participants, 24.8% had white nails. Significant variables for readmission were cancer (hazard ratio, HR = 1.52, p = 0.033), dementia (HR = 1.52, p = 0.037), heart failure (HR = 1.53, p = 0.033), home discharge (HR = 0.32, p ≤ 0.001), duration of previous hospitalization (HR = 0.99, p = 0.0026), and white nails (HR = 2.07, p ≤ 0.001).

Conclusions

White nails may be associated with readmission among previously admitted older patients. Identifying white nails in older admitted patients may enhance awareness of readmission risk; however, this needs further research.

Prediction of Chemotoxicity, Unplanned Hospitalizations and Early Death in Older Patients with Colorectal Cancer Treated with Chemotherapy

Simple Summary

Chemotoxicity, unplanned hospitalizations (Uhs) and early death (ED) are common among older patients with cancer who receive chemotherapy. Our objective was to determine factors predicting these complications. A predictive score for these three complications based on geriatric, tumor and laboratory variables was developed in a series of 215 older patients with colorectal carcinoma receiving chemotherapy. The use of this score may reliably identify patients at risk to have excessive toxicity with chemotherapy, UH or ED, thus helping to plan treatment, implement adaptive measures, and intensify follow-up.

Abstract

Purpose: To identify risk factors for toxicity, unplanned hospitalization (UH) and early death (ED) in older patients with colorectal carcinoma (CRC) initiating chemotherapy. Methods: 215 patients over 70 years were prospectively included. Geriatric assessment was performed before treatment, and tumor and treatment variables were collected. The association between these factors and grade 3–5 toxicity, UH and ED (<6 months) was examined by using multivariable logistic regression. Score points were assigned to each risk factor. Results: During the first 6 months of treatment, 33% of patients developed grade 3–5 toxicity, 31% had UH and 23% died. Risk factors were, for toxicity, instrumental activities of daily living, creatinine clearance, weight loss and MAX2 index; for UH, Charlson Comorbidity Score, creatinine clearance, weight loss, serum albumin, and metastatic disease; and for ED, basic activities in daily living, weight loss, metastatic disease, and hemoglobin levels. Predictive scores were built with these variables. The areas under receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curves for toxicity, UH and ED were 0.70 (95% CI: 0.64–0.766), 0.726 (95% IC: 0.661–0.799) and 0.74 (95% IC: 0.678–0.809), respectively. Conclusion: Simple scores based on geriatric, tumor and laboratory characteristics predict severe toxicity, UH and ED, and may help in treatment planning.

The Relationship between the Presence of White Nails and Mortality among Rural, Older, Admitted Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

White nails are a sign of various physical deteriorations, including poor nutrition, organ damage, and aging. During a physical examination, white nails can be a helpful health indicator in older patients with vague and multiple symptoms. In this prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the Department of General Medicine in a rural community hospital, we investigated the relationship between white nails and patient mortality. Patient data, including age, sex, condition, and bloodwork results, were collected. Trained family physicians confirmed the presence of white nails. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between white nails and death during hospitalization. Of 711 study participants, 74 died during hospitalization. White nails, male sex, and caregiver dependence were associated with high in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 3.47, p < 0.001; OR 2.05, p = 0.01; OR 1.92, p = 0.049, respectively). High albumin concentration was associated with low in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.44, p < 0.001). White nails, along with serum albumin concentration, male sex, and caregiver dependence, are associated with mortality. The identification of white nails can predict the deterioration of patients. Various professionals should learn to identify the presence of white nails to facilitate the care of elderly patients.