Short-Term Mortality in Patients with Heart Failure at the End-of-Life Stages: Hades Study

The different risk of new-onset, chronic, worsening, and advanced heart failure: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and progressive syndrome associated with a poor prognosis. While it may seem intuitive that the risk of adverse outcomes varies across the different stages of HF, an overview of these risks is lacking. This study aims to determine the risk of all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations associated with new-onset HF, chronic HF (CHF), worsening HF (WHF), and advanced HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a systematic review of observational studies from 2012 to 2022 using five different databases. The primary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality, as well as 1-year HF hospitalization. Studies were pooled using random effects meta-analysis, and mixed-effects meta-regression was used to compare the different HF groups. Among the 15 759 studies screened, 66 were included representing 862 046 HF patients. Pooled 30-day mortality rates did not reveal a significant distinction between hospital-admitted patients, with rates of 10.13% for new-onset HF and 8.11% for WHF (p = 0.10). However, the 1-year mortality risk differed and increased stepwise from CHF to advanced HF, with a rate of 8.47% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.24-9.89) for CHF, 21.15% (95% CI 17.78-24.95) for new-onset HF, 26.84% (95% CI 23.74-30.19) for WHF, and 29.74% (95% CI 24.15-36.10) for advanced HF. Readmission rates for HF at 1 year followed a similar trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis of observational studies confirms the different risk for adverse outcomes across the distinct HF stages. Moreover, it emphasizes the negative prognostic value of WHF as the first progressive stage from CHF towards advanced HF.

Oxidative stress markers-driven prognostic model to predict post-discharge mortality in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Background

Current predictive models based on biomarkers reflective of different pathways of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) pathogenesis constitute a useful tool for predicting death risk among HFrEF patients. The purpose of the study was to develop a new predictive model for post-discharge mortality risk among HFrEF patients, based on a combination of clinical patients’ characteristics, N-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and oxidative stress markers as a potentially valuable tool for routine clinical practice.

Methods

116 patients with stable HFrEF were recruited in a prospective single-center study. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP and oxidative stress markers [superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), uric acid (UA), total bilirubin (TB), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC)] were measured in the stable predischarge condition. Generalized linear model (GLM), random forest and extreme gradient boosting models were developed to predict post-discharge mortality risk using clinical and laboratory data. Through comprehensive evaluation, the most performant model was selected.

Results

During a median follow-up of 525 days (7–930), 33 (28%) patients died. Among the three created models, the GLM presented the best performance for post-discharge death prediction in HFrEF. The predictors included in the GLM model were age, female sex, beta blockers, NT-proBNP, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), TAC levels, admission systolic blood pressure (SBP), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor II blockers (ACEI/ARBs) and UA levels. Our model had a good discriminatory power for post-discharge mortality [The area under the curve (AUC) = 74.5%]. Based on the retained model, an online calculator was developed to allow the identification of patients with heightened post-discharge death risk.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we created a new and simple tool that may allow the identification of patients at heightened post-discharge mortality risk and could assist the treatment decision-making.

Palliative Care Needs and Clinical Features Related to Short-Term Mortality in Patients Enrolled in a Heart Failure Unit

(1) Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and complex pathology requiring continuous patient management due to clinical instability, associated comorbidity, and extensive pharmacological treatment. Its unpredictable course makes the advanced stages challenging to recognize and raises the need for palliative care. This study aims to identify palliative care needs in HF patients and describe clinical features related to short-term mortality. (2) Methods: A descriptive, observational, cross-sectional, and retrospective study was carried out in an HF unit of a Spanish tertiary hospital. Patients’ socio-demographic and clinical data were collected from clinical records, and different instruments were used to establish mortality risks and patients’ needs for palliative care. Subsequently, univariate and bivariate descriptive analyses were performed. A binary logistic regression model helped to determine variables that could influence mortality 12 months after admission to the Unit. (3) Results: The studied population, sixty-five percent women, had an average age of 83.27 years. Among other clinical characteristics predominated preserved ejection fraction (pEF) and dyspnea NYHA (New York Heart Association) class II. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension and coronary heart disease. Forty-nine percent had a low–intermediate mortality risk in the following year, according to the PROFUND index. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© instrument identified subjects who meet the criteria for palliative care. This predictive model identified NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© results, using beta-blockers (BB) or AIIRA (Angiotensin II receptor antagonists) and low glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as explanatory variables of patients’ mortality in the following year. (4) Conclusions: The analysis of the characteristics of the population with HF allows us to identify patients in need of palliative care. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© instrument and the PROFUND have helped identify the characteristics of people with HF who would benefit from palliative management.