Future Risk of Bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) Breakdown in Cattle Herds 2013-2018: A Dominance Analysis Approach

The Irish bTB eradication programme: combining stakeholder engagement and research-driven policy to tackle bovine tuberculosis

A new Irish bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication strategy was launched in 2021. The strategy was formulated following extensive discussions with stakeholders, formal reviews of several aspects of the existing bTB policy and relevant inputs from the latest scientific research projects. A stakeholder discussion body, the TB Forum, had been established in 2018 and this continues under the new strategy, supported by three working groups (scientific, financial and implementation). The strategy sets out actions to address cattle-to-cattle and badger-to-cattle bTB transmission, along with actions to improve farm biosecurity and empower farmers to make their own choices to reduce bTB risk.Large scale vaccination of badgers has been rolled out under the new strategy, with over 20,000 km2 covered by the vaccination programme and 6,586 badgers captured in vaccination areas in 2021. Vaccination efforts have been complemented by intensive communications campaigns, including a web enabled software application ("app") enabling farmers to report the location of badger setts.Cattle which test inconclusive to the tuberculin skin test have been re-tested using a gamma interferon blood test since April 2021, enabling truly infected cattle to be identified more effectively due to the higher sensitivity of this test. An enhanced oversight process has been put in place for herds experiencing extended or repeat bTB breakdowns. Whole genome sequencing is being used to investigate links between breakdowns, with the results supporting operational decision making in case management.Communications, including biosecurity advice, are co-designed with stakeholders, in order to improve their effectiveness. A programme involving veterinary practitioners providing tailored biosecurity bTB advice to their clients was established in 2021 and was rolled out nationally during 2022.A core element of the new strategy is the continual improvement of policies in response to changing bTB risks, informed by scientific research and then implemented with stakeholder consultation.

Trends and factors associated with dairy calf early slaughter in Ireland, 2018-2022

Dairy systems require that each cow calves annually to have an efficient milk production cycle. In systems where milk production is maximized, the male offspring from dairy breed sires tend to have poor beef production traits and, therefore, can be of low economic value. Few studies have been published on the factors impacting early slaughtering of calves in peer-reviewed literature. Here we present an analysis of national data on calves slaughtered from 2018 to 2022 in Ireland. Data (Jan 2018-May 2022) on all cattle <6 months of age were collated at a national level and were described at calf-, herd-, and county-levels. These data were statistically analyzed at per-capita slaughter rates (calves/calf born) using negative binomial regression models with an offset. There were 125,260 calves slaughtered early (1.09% of total births) recorded in the dataset from 1,364 birth herds during the study period, of which 94.8% (118,761) were male. 51.7% were classified as Friesian-cross (FRX), 11.5% Friesian (FR) and 32.1% Jersey-cross (JEX). The median age at slaughter was 16 days (Mean: 18.9 days; IQR: 13-22). The median calves/herd slaughtered was 16 (mean: 91.8); median calves/herd/year slaughtered was 21 (mean: 42.0). There was substantial variation in counts of calves slaughtered across herds, years, and counties. Herd calf slaughter rates and per capita calf slaughter rates increased significantly in 2022, with the highest rates over the time series. Calf slaughter rates varied significantly with herd size, year, and major breed (Jersey; JE). Herds which were more recently established tended to have higher calf slaughter rates. Herds that repeatedly slaughtered calves over 2 or more years tended to be larger and slaughtered more calves/herd/year. The slaughtering of calves is not widespread across the dairy industry in Ireland. The distribution of calves slaughtered per herd demonstrate that a small number of herds contributed disproportionately to calf slaughter numbers. Such herds tended to be very large (herd size), more recently established (2016 onwards), and have higher proportions of JE/JEX breed cattle. The outcomes of the present study provide an evidential base for the development of targeted industry-lead interventions with the aim of ending the routine early slaughter of calves.

Once bitten twice shy: Risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis recurrence in Castilla y Leon, Spain

Persistence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herd remains a major challenge in disease elimination due to the ineffectual removal of all infected animals in a bTB breakdown. Characterization of herds with a higher probability of experiencing further bTB breakdowns can help to implement specific risk-based policies for disease control and eradication. Here, our aim was to identify herd- and breakdown-level risk factors in bTB infected herds in Castilla y Leon, Spain, associated with a decreased time to recurrence and an increased risk of recurrence using a mixed effects Cox proportional hazards model and a multivariable logistic regression model, respectively. Results revealed that location (province), herd size and number of incoming animals/contacts were good predictors of a decreased time to bTB recurrence and an increased risk of becoming a recurrent herd. Additionally, the duration of the previous outbreak and the number of IFN-γ herd-tests applied in it were associated with increased odds of (an early) recurrence. Risk factors identified here can be used for early identification of herds in which bTB eradication may be more challenging and that should thus be subjected to increased control efforts. The characterization of high-risk herds may help to minimize the risk of reinfection and emphasize early detection and removal of bTB positive animals in the herd.

Revisiting the relative effectiveness of slaughterhouses in Ireland to detect tuberculosis lesions in cattle (2014-2018)

Slaughterhouse or meat factory surveillance to detect factory lesions (FL) at slaughter is an important part of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication program in Ireland. The objective of this study was to quantify the effectiveness of Irish slaughterhouses or factories in submitting FL and the proportion of those submitted FL confirmed as being due to bTB in slaughtered cattle, and to identify and quantify the association of risk factors at animal, herd, and factory level with FL submission and confirmation. The data consisted of 6,611,854 animals slaughtered in Irish factories from 2014 to 2018 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (DAFM), Ireland. Selected risk factors for this study included factory, year and month of slaughter, age, sex, breed, animal movement, ever inconclusive in the standard or severe skin test, herd type, herd size, and bTB history. The association of each risk factor on the FL submission and confirmation risk were analysed with univariable followed by a multivariable logistic regression with herd as random effect. Factories were ranked and compared based on the odds ratio (OR) obtained from the univariable (crude OR) and multivariable (adjusted OR) analysis. The average submission risk of all factories was 20 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, ranging from 1 to 42 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, and the average confirmation risk over all factories was 40.72%, ranging from 0.00 to 61.84%. The odds of submitting and confirming FL as bTB positive were higher in animals over eight years old compared to animals 1–2 years old (OR = 1.91, 95 CI 95% 1.77–2.06 and OR = 4.05, 95% CI 3.17–5.18, respectively), and were higher in animals that ever had inconclusive skin result based on severe interpretation (OR = 2.83, 95% CI 2.44–3.27 and OR = 4.48, 95% CI 2.66–7.54, respectively), animals originating from sucklers herds (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.14 and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.11–1.55, respectively), or herds with bTB history in the past three years (OR = 4.46, 95% CI 4.28–4.66 and OR = 319.90, 95% CI 237.98–430.04, respectively). The odds of FL submission and confirmation decreased as the herd size increased (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.96 and OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.86, respectively). An inverse relationship of FL submission and confirmation was present for variable sex and inconclusive skin result with standard interpretation, where submission odds were higher in males (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.00–1.10) and ever inconclusive animals (OR = 74.24, 95% CI 69.39–79.43), although the confirmation odds were lower (males OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.56–0.76; ever inconclusive OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.36–0.54). The crude and adjusted ranking of factories did not differ greatly for FL submission, indicating that factory-related factors may contribute significantly to the submission variation between factories. However, a substantial difference between crude and adjusted confirmation ranking was present which may indicate that animal and herd-related factors were associated to variation in confirmation risk between factories.

Engaging With Farmers to Explore Correlates of Bovine Tuberculosis Risk in an Internationally Important Heritage Landscape: The Burren, in the West of Ireland

Bovith recene tuberculosis (bTB) continues to be a pathogen of concern in several countries globally. Analysis of areas that have higher incidences of bTB outbreaks has demonstrated how risk is not equally distributed, and local data collection, analysis and participatory engagement is required to develop tailored approaches. The Burren, an internationally important heritage landscape, has been an area of higher bTB incidence for many years in Ireland, and owing to its unique geology and farming heritage a survey was developed to engage with local farmers to gain greater insight into farming practices and bTB control to inform tailored approaches. The survey gathered data on the farm and animal management approaches being used within the Burren, including local farming techniques like the use of “winterage” (grazing exposed limestone dominated uplands). Thematic analysis of free text responses was undertaken. Quantitative data were then explored using statistical models to assess associations with recent (<3 years) self-reported bTB breakdown risk. There was a high number of responses demonstrating a high degree of willingness to engage on the issue. Thematic analysis suggested that wildlife and its management (culling and vaccination), testing quality, and its impact on the bTB scheme, and pessimism around eradication were important themes. Statistical analysis suggested that increasing bTB risk was primarily related to increasing herd-size and the percentage of herd owner's land inaccessible to those attempting to locate badger setts. There was less evidence for associations relating to the amount of time, or which season (i.e., summer), farmers utilized “winterage”. The results of the study will feed back directly to local bTB management plans and further stakeholder engagement and is an exemplar for local tailoring of national control measures in situations of high incidences of bTB outbreaks in particular areas.