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Yan C, Hao H, Wang Z, Sha S, Zhang Y, Wang Q, Kang Z, Huang L, Wang L, Feng H. Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change. J Fungi (Basel) 2023; 9:739. [PMID: 37504728 PMCID: PMC10381404 DOI: 10.3390/jof9070739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chengcai Yan
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Haiting Hao
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Zhe Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Shuaishuai Sha
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Yiwen Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Qingpeng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
| | - Zhensheng Kang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
- Yangling Seed Industry Innovation Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - Lili Huang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
- Yangling Seed Industry Innovation Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - Lan Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Hongzu Feng
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
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Prediction of the Potential Distributions of Prunus salicina Lindl., Monilinia fructicola, and Their Overlap in China Using MaxEnt. J Fungi (Basel) 2023; 9:jof9020189. [PMID: 36836304 PMCID: PMC9963034 DOI: 10.3390/jof9020189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2022] [Revised: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Prunus salicina Lindl. (P. salicina) is an essential cash crop in China, and brown rot (BR) is one of its most important diseases. In this study, we collected geographic location information on P. salicina and Monilinia fructicola (G. Winter) Honey (M. fructicola), one of the BR pathogenic species, and applied the MaxEnt model to simulate its potential suitable distribution in China. There have been discussions about the dominant environmental variables restricting its geographical distribution and their overlap. The results showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation in July, and minimum temperatures in January and November were the main climatic variables affecting the potential distribution of P. salicina, while the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of March, precipitation of October, maximum temperatures of February, October, and November, and minimum temperature of January were related to the location of M. fructicola. Southern China had suitable conditions for both P. salicina and M. fructicola. Notably, the overlap area of P. salicina and M. fructicola was primarily located southeast of 91°48' E 27°38' N to 126°47' E 41°45' N. The potential overlap area predicted by our research provided theoretical evidence for the prevention of BR during plum planting.
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Tiwari S, Dhakal T, Kim TS, Lee DH, Jang GS, Oh Y. Climate Change Influences the Spread of African Swine Fever Virus. Vet Sci 2022; 9:606. [PMID: 36356083 PMCID: PMC9698898 DOI: 10.3390/vetsci9110606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2022] [Revised: 10/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/30/2022] [Indexed: 08/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is an inevitable and urgent issue in the current world. African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a re-emerging viral animal disease. This study investigates the quantitative association between climate change and the potential spread of ASFV to a global extent. ASFV in wild boar outbreak locations recorded from 1 January 2019 to 29 July 2022 were sampled and investigated using the ecological distribution tool, the Maxent model, with WorldClim bioclimatic data as the predictor variables. The future impacts of climate change on ASFV distribution based on the model were scoped with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) bioclimatic data for 2050 and 2070. The results show that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the highest contributor, and annual mean temperature (Bio1) was obtained as the highest permutation importance variable on the spread of ASFV. Based on the analyzed scenarios, we found that the future climate is favourable for ASFV disease; only quantitative ratios are different and directly associated with climate change. The current study could be a reference material for wildlife health management, climate change issues, and World Health Organization sustainability goal 13: climate action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shraddha Tiwari
- Department of Veterinary Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
| | - Thakur Dhakal
- Department of Life Science, Yeungnam University, Daegu 38541, Korea
| | - Tae-Su Kim
- Department of Life Science, Yeungnam University, Daegu 38541, Korea
| | - Do-Hun Lee
- National Institute of Ecology (NIE), Seocheon 33657, Korea
| | - Gab-Sue Jang
- Department of Life Science, Yeungnam University, Daegu 38541, Korea
| | - Yeonsu Oh
- Department of Veterinary Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
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Determining the potential distribution of Oryctes monoceros and Oryctes rhinoceros by combining machine-learning with high-dimensional multidisciplinary environmental variables. Sci Rep 2022; 12:17439. [PMID: 36261485 PMCID: PMC9581929 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21367-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 09/26/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The African coconut beetle Oryctes monoceros and Asiatic rhinoceros beetle O. rhinoceros have been associated with economic losses to plantations worldwide. Despite the amount of effort put in determining the potential geographic extent of these pests, their environmental suitability maps have not yet been well established. Using MaxEnt model, the potential distribution of the pests has been defined on a global scale. The results show that large areas of the globe, important for production of palms, are suitable for and potentially susceptible to these pests. The main determinants for O. monoceros distribution were; temperature annual range, followed by land cover, and precipitation seasonality. The major determinants for O. rhinoceros were; temperature annual range, followed by precipitation of wettest month, and elevation. The area under the curve values of 0.976 and 0.975, and True skill statistic values of 0.90 and 0.88, were obtained for O. monoceros and O. rhinoceros, respectively. The global simulated areas for O. rhinoceros (1279.00 × 104 km2) were more than that of O. monoceros (610.72 × 104 km2). Our findings inform decision-making and the development of quarantine measures against the two most important pests of palms.
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Hebbar KB, Abhin PS, Sanjo Jose V, Neethu P, Santhosh A, Shil S, Prasad PVV. Predicting the Potential Suitable Climate for Coconut ( Cocos nucifera L.) Cultivation in India under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 11:plants11060731. [PMID: 35336613 PMCID: PMC8954727 DOI: 10.3390/plants11060731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2022] [Revised: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. Early awareness of the future climate of the current cultivation areas for a perennial tree crop like coconut is needed for its adaptation and sustainable cultivation in vulnerable areas. We analyzed coconut's vulnerability to climate change in India, based on climate projections for the 2050s and the 2070s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. Based on the current cultivation regions and climate change predictions from seven ensembles of Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for coconut cultivation using the MaxEnt model. Bioclimatic variables Bio 4 (temperature seasonality, 34.4%) and Bio 7 (temperature annual range, 28.7%) together contribute 63.1%, which along with Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.6%) determined 71.7% of the climate suitability for coconuts in India. The model projected that some current coconut cultivation producing areas will become unsuitable (plains of South interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in genotypic or agronomic management (east coast and the south interior plains), and yet in others, the climatic suitability for growing coconut will increase (west coast). The findings suggest the need for adaptation strategies so as to ensure sustainable cultivation of coconut at least in presently cultivated areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kukkehalli Balachandra Hebbar
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research—Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod 671124, Kerala, India; (P.S.A.); (P.N.); (A.S.)
| | - Pulloott Sukumar Abhin
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research—Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod 671124, Kerala, India; (P.S.A.); (P.N.); (A.S.)
| | | | - Poonchalikundil Neethu
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research—Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod 671124, Kerala, India; (P.S.A.); (P.N.); (A.S.)
| | - Arya Santhosh
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research—Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod 671124, Kerala, India; (P.S.A.); (P.N.); (A.S.)
| | - Sandip Shil
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research—Central Plantation Crops Research Institute Research Centre, Mohit Nagar 735101, West Bengal, India;
| | - P. V. Vara Prasad
- Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA;
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