Estimating Spatio-Temporal Variations of PM2.5 Concentrations Using VIIRS-Derived AOD in the Guanzhong Basin, China

An improved meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth estimation method by combining a physical mechanism model with a two-stage model

A two-stage model integrating a spatiotemporal linear mixed effect (STLME) and a geographic weight regression (GWR) model is proposed to improve the meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval method (Elterman retrieval model-ERM). The proposed model is referred to as the STG-ERM model. The STG-ERM model is applied over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China for the years 2019 and 2020. The results show that data coverage increased by 39.0% in 2019 and 40.5% in 2020. Cross-validation of the retrieval results versus multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) AOD shows the substantial improvement of the STG-ERM model over earlier meteorological models for AOD estimation, with a determination coefficient (R2) of daily AOD of 0.86, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) and the relative prediction error (RPE) of 0.10 and 36.14% in 2019 and R2 of 0.86, RMSE of 0.12 and RPE of 37.86% in 2020. The fused annual mean AOD indicates strong spatial variation with high value in south plain and low value in northwestern mountainous areas of the BTH region. The overall spatial seasonal mean AOD ranges from 0.441 to 0.586, demonstrating strongly seasonal variation. The coverage of STG-ERM retrieved AOD, as determined in this exercise by leaving out part of the meteorological data, affects the accuracy of fused AOD. The coverage of the meteorological data has smaller impact on the fused AOD in the districts with low annual mean AOD of less than 0.35 than that in the districts with high annual mean AOD of greater than 0.6. If available, continuous daily meteorological data with high spatiotemporal resolution can improve the model performance and the accuracy of fused AOD. The STG-ERM model may serve as a valuable approach to provide data to fill gaps in satellite-retrieved AOD products.

Prediction of air pollutant concentrations based on the long short-term memory neural network

In recent years, environmental problems caused by air pollutants have received increasing attention. Effective prediction of air pollutant concentrations is an important way to protect the public from harm. Recently, due to extreme climate and social development, the forest fire frequency has increased. During the biomass combustion process caused by forest fires, the content of particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere increases significantly. However, most existing air pollutant concentration prediction methods do not consider the considerable impact of forest fires, and effective long-term prediction models have not been established to provide early warnings for harmful gases. Therefore, in this paper, we collected a daily air quality data set (aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 µm, PM2.5) for Heilongjiang Province, China, from 2017 to 2023 and A novel Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model was proposed to effectively predict the situation of air pollutants. The model could automatically extract information of the effective time step from the historical data set and combine forest fire disturbance and climate data as auxiliary data to improve the model prediction ability. Moreover, we created artificial neural network (ANN) and permissive regression (support vector machine, SVR) models for comparative experiments. The results showed that the precision accuracy of the developed LSTM model is higher. Unlike the other models, the LSTM neural network model could effectively predict the concentration of air pollutants in long-term series. Regarding long-term observation missions (7 days), the proposed model performed well and stably, with R2 reaching over 88%.

Application of machine learning models and landsat 8 data for estimating seasonal pm 2.5 concentrations

Air pollution is a significant global challenge that affects many cities. In Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are among the most highly polluted and are mainly affected by air pollution. In this study, we integrate open-source landsat 8 remote sensing products, topographical data, and the limited ground truth PM2.5 data to spatially predict the air quality level across different seasons in Tuzla Canton, BiH by adopting three pre-existing machine learning models, namely XGBoost, K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) and Naive Bayes (NB). These classification models were implemented based on landsat 8 bands, environmental-derived indices, and topographical variables generated for the study area. Based on the predicted results, the XGBoost model exhibited the highest overall accuracy across all seasons. The predicted model results were used to generate spatial air quality maps. Based on the classification maps, the PM2.5 air quality level predicted for Tuzla Canton in the Winter Season is very unhealthy. The findings conclude that the PM2.5 air quality concentration in Tuzla Canton is relatively unsatisfactory and requires urgent intervention by the government to prevent further deterioration of air quality in Tuzla and other affected cantons in BiH.

A Suitable Model for Spatiotemporal Particulate Matter Concentration Prediction in Rural and Urban Landscapes, Thailand

Spatiotemporal particulate matter (PM) concentration prediction using MODIS AOD with significant PM factors in rural and urban landscapes in Thailand is necessary for public health and has been complicated by the limitations of PM monitoring stations. The research objectives were (1) to identify significant factors affecting PM10 concentrations in rural landscapes and PM2.5 in urban landscapes; (2) to predict spatiotemporal PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed-effect model (MEM), and (3) to evaluate a suitable spatiotemporal model for PM10 and PM2.5 concentration prediction and validation. The research methodology consisted of four stages: data collection and preparation, the identification of significant spatiotemporal factors affecting PM concentrations, the prediction of spatiotemporal PM concentrations, and a suitable spatiotemporal model for PM concentration prediction and validation. As a result, the predicted PM10 concentrations using the GWR model varied from 50.53 to 85.79 µg/m3 and from 36.92 to 51.32 µg/m3 in winter and summer, while the predicted PM10 concentrations using the MEM model varied from 50.68 to 84.59 µg/m3 and from 37.08 to 50.81 µg/m3 in both seasons. Likewise, the PM2.5 concentration prediction using the GWR model varied from 25.33 to 44.37 µg/m3 and from 16.69 to 24.04 µg/m3 in winter and summer, and the PM2.5 concentration prediction using the MEM model varied from 25.45 to 44.36 µg/m3 and from 16.68 and 23.75 µg/m3 during the two seasons. Meanwhile, according to Thailand and U.S. EPA standards, the monthly air quality index (AQI) classifications of the GWR and MEM were similar. Nevertheless, the derived average corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) values of the GWR model for PM10 and PM2.5 predictions during both seasons were lower than that of the MEM model. Therefore, the GWR model was chosen as a suitable model for spatiotemporal PM10 and PM2.5 concentration predictions. Furthermore, the result of spatial correlation analysis for GWR model validation based on a new dataset provided average correlation coefficient values for PM10 and PM2.5 concentration predictions with a higher than the expected value of 0.5. Subsequently, the GWR model with significant monthly and seasonal factors could predict spatiotemporal PM 10 and PM2.5 concentrations in rural and urban landscapes in Thailand.

A New Coupling Method for PM2.5 Concentration Estimation by the Satellite-Based Semiempirical Model and Numerical Model

Aerosol optical and chemical properties play a major role in the retrieval of PM2.5 concentrations based on aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from satellites in the conventional semiempirical model (SEM). However, limited observation information hinders the high-resolution estimation of PM2.5. Therefore, a new method for evaluating near-surface PM2.5 at high spatial resolution is developed by coupling the SEM and the chemical transport model (CTM)-based numerical (CSEN) model. The numerical model can provide large-scale information for aerosol properties with high spatial resolution at a large scale based on emissions and meteorology, though it can still be biased in simulating absolute PM2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the two crucial aerosol characteristic parameters, including the coefficient integrated humidity effect (γ′) and the comprehensive reference value of aerosol properties (K) in SEM, have been redefined using the WRF-Chem numerical model. Improved model performance was observed for these results compared with the original SEM results. The monthly averaged correlation coefficients (R) by CSEN were 0.92, 0.82, 0.84, and 0.83 in January, April, July, and October, respectively, whereas those of the SEM were 0.80, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.72, respectively. All the statistical metrics of the model validation showed significant improvements in all seasons. The reduced biases of estimated PM2.5 by CSEN indicated the effect of hygroscopic growth and aerosol properties affected by the meteorology on the relationship between AOD and estimated PM2.5 concentrations, especially in winter and summer. The better performance of the CSEN model provides insight for air quality monitoring at different scales, which supplies important information for air pollution control policies and health impact analysis.

Machine learning driven by environmental covariates to estimate high-resolution PM2.5 in data-poor regions

PM_2.5, which refers to fine particles with an equivalent aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 µm, can not only affect air quality but also endanger public health. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of PM_2.5 is not well understood in data-poor regions where monitoring stations are scarce. Therefore, we constructed a random forest (RF) model and a bagging algorithm model based on ground-monitored PM_2.5 data, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological data, and auxiliary geographical variables to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations in Xinjiang during 2015-2020 at a resolution of 1 km. Through 10-fold cross-validation (CV), the RF model and bagging algorithm model were verified and compared. The results showed the following: (1) The RF model achieved better model performance and thus can be used to estimate the PM_2.5 concentration at a relatively high resolution. (2) The PM_2.5 concentrations were high in southern Xinjiang and low in northern Xinjiang. The high values were concentrated mainly in the Tarim Basin, while most areas of northern Xinjiang maintained low PM_2.5 levels year-round. (3) The PM_2.5 values in Xinjiang showed significant seasonality, with the seasonally averaged concentrations decreasing as follows: winter (71.95 µg m^-3) > spring (64.76 µg m^-3) > autumn (46.01 µg m^-3) > summer (43.40 µg m^-3). Our model provides a way to monitor air quality in data-scarce places, thereby advancing efforts to achieve sustainable development in the future.

Air Quality over China

The strong economic growth in China in recent decades, together with meteorological factors, has resulted in serious air pollution problems, in particular over large industrialized areas with high population density. To reduce the concentrations of pollutants, air pollution control policies have been successfully implemented, resulting in the gradual decrease of air pollution in China during the last decade, as evidenced from both satellite and ground-based measurements. The aims of the Dragon 4 project “Air quality over China” were the determination of trends in the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases, quantification of emissions using a top-down approach and gain a better understanding of the sources, transport and underlying processes contributing to air pollution. This was achieved through (a) satellite observations of trace gases and aerosols to study the temporal and spatial variability of air pollutants; (b) derivation of trace gas emissions from satellite observations to study sources of air pollution and improve air quality modeling; and (c) study effects of haze on air quality. In these studies, the satellite observations are complemented with ground-based observations and modeling.

Estimating PM2.5 concentrations via random forest method using satellite, auxiliary, and ground-level station dataset at multiple temporal scales across China in 2017

Fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) poses adverse impacts on public health and the environment. It is still a great challenge to estimate high-resolution PM_2.5 concentrations at moderate scales. The current study calibrated PM_2.5 concentrations at a 1 km resolution scale using ground-level monitoring data, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), meteorological data, and auxiliary data via Random Forest (RF) model across China in 2017. The three ten-folded cross-validations (CV) methods including sample-based, time-based, and spatial-based validation combined with Coefficient Square (R²), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Predictive Error (MPE) have been used for validation at different temporal scales in terms of daily, monthly, heating seasonal, and non-heating seasonal. Finally, the distribution map of PM_2.5 concentrations was illustrated based on the RF model. Some findings were achieved. The RF model performed well, with a relatively high sample-based cross-validation R² of 0.74, a low RMSE of 16.29 μg × m^-3, and a small MPE of -0.282 μg × m^-3. Meanwhile, the performance of the RF model in inferring the PM_2.5 concentrations was well at urban scales except for Chengyu (CY). North China, the CY urban agglomeration, and the northwest of China exhibited relatively high PM_2.5 pollution features, especially in the heating season. The robustness of the RF model in the present study outperformed most statistical regression models for calibrating PM_2.5 concentrations. The outcomes can supply an up-to-date scientific dataset for epidemiological and air pollutants exposure risk studies across China.

Inferring Near-Surface PM2.5 Concentrations from the VIIRS Deep Blue Aerosol Product in China: A Spatiotemporally Weighted Random Forest Model

Much of the population is exposed to PM2.5 (particulate matter) pollution in China, and establishing a high-precision PM2.5 grid dataset will be very valuable for air pollution and related studies. However, limited by the traditional models themselves and input data sources, PM2.5 estimations are of low accuracy with narrow spatial coverage. Therefore, we develop a new spatiotemporally weighted random forest (SWRF) model to improve the estimation accuracy and expand the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations using the latest release of the Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) Deep Blue (DB) aerosol product, along with meteorological variables, and socioeconomic data. Compared with traditional methods and the results of previous similar studies, our satellite-derived PM2.5 distribution shows better consistency with surface-measured records, having a high out-of-sample (out-of-station) cross-validation (CV) coefficient of determination (CV-R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.87 (0.85), 11.23 (11.53) μg m−3 and 8.25 (8.78) μg m−3, respectively. The monthly, seasonal, and annual mean PM2.5 were also successfully captured (CV-R2 = 0.91–0.92, RMSE = 4.35–6.72 μg m−3). Then, the spatial characteristics of PM2.5 pollution in 2018 were investigated, showing that although air pollution has diminished in recent years, China still faces a high PM2.5 pollution risk overall, especially in winter (average = 50.43 + 16.81 μg m−3). In addition, 19 provinces or administrative regions have annual PM2.5 concentrations >35 μg m−3, particularly the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (~55.25 μg m−3), Tianjin (~49.65 μg m−3), and Henan Province (~48.60 μg m−3). Our estimated surface PM2.5 concentrations are accurate, which could benefit further research on air pollution in China.

Population exposure across central India to PM2.5 derived using remotely sensed products in a three-stage statistical model

Surface PM_2.5 concentrations are required for exposure assessment studies. Remotely sensed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) has been used to derive PM_2.5 where ground data is unavailable. However, two key challenges in estimating surface PM_2.5 from AOD using statistical models are (i) Satellite data gaps, and (ii) spatio-temporal variability in AOD-PM_2.5 relationships. In this study, we estimated spatially continuous (0.03° × 0.03°) daily surface PM_2.5 concentrations using MAIAC AOD over Madhya Pradesh (MP), central India for 2018 and 2019, and validated our results against surface measurements. Daily MAIAC AOD gaps were filled using MERRA-2 AOD. Imputed AOD together with MERRA-2 meteorology and land use information were then used to develop a linear mixed effect (LME) model. Finally, a geographically weighted regression was developed using the LME output to capture spatial variability in AOD-PM_2.5 relationship. Final Cross-Validation (CV) correlation coefficient, r², between modelled and observed PM_2.5 varied from 0.359 to 0.689 while the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) varied from 15.83 to 35.85 µg m^-3, over the entire study region during the study period. Strong seasonality was observed with winter seasons (2018 and 2019) PM_2.5 concentration (mean value 82.54 µg m^-3) being the highest and monsoon seasons being the lowest (mean value of 32.10 µg m^-3). Our results show that MP had a mean PM_2.5 concentration of 58.19 µg m^-3 and 56.32 µg m^-3 for 2018 and 2019, respectively, which likely caused total premature deaths of 0.106 million (0.086, 0.128) at the 95% confidence interval including 0.056 million (0.045, 0.067) deaths due to Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), 0.037 million (0.031, 0.045) due to strokes, 0.012 million (0.009, 0.014) due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), and 1.2 thousand (1.0, 1.5) due to lung cancer (LNC) during this period.

Assessing Community-Level Livability Using Combined Remote Sensing and Internet-Based Big Geospatial Data

With rapid urbanization, retrieving livability information of human settlements in time is essential for urban planning and governance. However, livability assessments are often limited by data availability and data update cycle, and this problem is more serious when making an assessment at finer spatial scales (e.g., community level). Here we aim to develop a reliable and dynamic model for community-level livability assessment taking Linyi city in Shandong Province, China as a case study. First, we constructed a hierarchical index system for livability assessment, and derived data for each index and community from remotely sensed data or Internet-based geospatial data. Next, we calculated the livability scores for all communities and assessed their uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the mean livability score of all communities was 59. The old urban and newly developed districts of our study area had the best livability, and got a livability score of 62 and 58 respectively, while industrial districts had the poorest conditions with an average livability score of 48. Results by dimension showed that the old urban district had better conditions of living amenity and travel convenience, but poorer conditions of environmental health and comfort. The newly developed districts were the opposite. We conclude that our model is effective and extendible for rapidly assessing community-level livability, which provides detailed and useful information of human settlements for sustainable urban planning and governance.

The Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Air Quality in the Guanzhong Basin, China

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019, spreading from there across China and within weeks across the whole world. In order to control the rapid spread of the virus, the Chinese government implemented a national lockdown policy. It restricted human mobility and non-essential economic activities, which, as a side effect, resulted in the reduction of the emission of pollutants and thus the improvement of the air quality in many cities in China. In this paper, we report on a study on the changes in air quality in the Guanzhong Basin during the COVID-19 lockdown period. We compared the concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO and O3 obtained from ground-based monitoring stations before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The analysis confirmed that the air quality in the Guanzhong Basin was significantly improved after the COVID-19 outbreak. During the emergency response period with the strictest restrictions (Level-1), the concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 and CO were lower by 37%, 30%, 29%, 52% and 33%, respectively, compared with those before the COVID-19 outbreak. In contrast, O3 concentrations increased substantially. The changes in the pollutant concentrations varied between cities during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest O3 concentration changes were observed in Xi’an, Weinan and Xianyang city; the SO2 concentration decreased substantially in Tongchuan city; the air quality had improved the most in Baoji City. Next, to complement the sparsely distributed air quality ground-based monitoring stations, the geographic and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, combined with satellite observations of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological factors was used to estimate the spatial and temporal distributions of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations with a resolution of 6 km × 6 km before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The model was validated by a comparison with ground-based observations from the air quality monitoring network in five cities in the Guanzhong Basin with excellent statistical metrics. For PM2.5 and PM10 the correlation coefficients R2 were 0.86 and 0.80, the root mean squared errors (RMSE) were 11.03 µg/m3 and 14.87 µg/m3 and the biases were 0.19 µg/m3 and −0.27 µg/m3, which led to the conclusion that the GTWR model could be used to estimate the PM concentrations in locations where monitoring data were not available. Overall, the PM concentrations in the Guanzhong Basin decreased substantially during the lockdown period, with a strong initial decrease and a slower one thereafter, although the spatial distributions remained similar.

The Impact of the Control Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak on Air Pollution in China

The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan, China, in January 2020 just before the Spring Festival and subsequent country-wide measures to contain the virus, effectively resulted in the lock-down of the country. Most industries and businesses were closed, traffic was largely reduced, and people were restrained to their homes. This resulted in the reduction of emissions of trace gases and aerosols, the concentrations of which were strongly reduced in many cities around the country. Satellite imagery from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) showed an enormous reduction of tropospheric NO2 concentrations, but aerosol optical depth (AOD), as a measure of the amount of aerosols, was less affected, likely due to the different formation mechanisms and the influence of meteorological factors. In this study, satellite data and ground-based observations were used together to estimate the separate effects of the Spring Festival and the COVID-19 containment measures on atmospheric composition in the winter of 2020. To achieve this, data were analyzed for a period from 30 days before to 60 days after the Spring Festivals in 2017–2020. This extended period of time, including similar periods in previous years, were selected to account for both the decreasing concentrations in response to air pollution control measures, and meteorological effects on concentrations of trace gases and aerosols. Satellite data from TROPOMI provided the spatial distributions over mainland China of the tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) of NO2, and VCD of SO2 and CO. The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provided the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The comparison of the satellite data for different periods showed a large reduction of, e.g., NO2 tropospheric VCDs due to the Spring Festival of up to 80% in some regions, and an additional reduction due to the COVID-19 containment measures of up to 70% in highly populated areas with intensive anthropogenic activities. In other areas, both effects are very small. Ground-based in situ observations from 26 provincial capitals provided concentrations of NO2, SO2, CO, O3, PM2.5, and PM10. The analysis of these data was focused on the situation in Wuhan, based on daily averaged concentrations. The NO2 concentrations started to decrease a few days before the Spring Festival and increased after about two weeks, except in 2020 when they continued to be low. SO2 concentrations behaved in a similar way, whereas CO, PM2.5, and PM10 also decreased during the Spring Festival but did not trace NO2 concentrations as SO2 did. As could be expected from atmospheric chemistry considerations, O3 concentrations increased. The analysis of the effects of the Spring Festival and the COVID-19 containment measures was complicated due to meteorological influences. Uncertainties contributing to the estimates of the different effects on the trace gas concentrations are discussed. The situation in Wuhan is compared with that in 26 provincial capitals based on 30-day averages for four years, showing different effects across China.