Land-Use Type as a Driver of Large Wildfire Occurrence in the U.S. Great Plains

Global distribution, trends and types of active fire occurrences

Fire occurrence is synonymous to terrestrial ecosystems and an important component of the Earth system. Climate change, vegetation characteristics, and human activity regulate fire occurrence and spread, however, fires also interact with them in multiple ways. Due to the complicated mechanisms of interactions between fire and land use or cover, the spatial distribution, change trends and land use or cover types of fire occurrences exist wide discrepancies in different regions or countries around the world. Therefore, the quantitative and spatial relationship and differences between fire and land use or cover at the global scale remain poorly understood systematically. Here, we combine active fire and land cover products during 2001-2020 to explore the spatio-temporal features, trends, and types of active fires from global to continental scales. Globally, the annual changes of monthly active fire occurrences kept a dramatic increase in first two or three years but a circuitous decrease since then. Most areas prevailingly experienced active fires for once to five times, a small part of areas clustered in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America experienced active fires for over five times in the last 20-years. In particular, above 60 % of active fires (re-)occurred in forest and 20-25 % in cropland, whereas grassland and construction land only accounted for about 5 % and less than 2 % respectively. Driven by active fires, the conversion of forest to cropland accounted for nearly 60 % and the transition of cropland to forest (about 10 %) followed and formed an interactive circle. Our findings improve the understanding of fire-land cover change interactions, particularly agricultural expansion and forest loss driven by active fires. Future efforts on agricultural expansion, urban safety, carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation should take the results of this research into account.

Impact of Eastern Redcedar encroachment on water resources in the Nebraska Sandhills

Worldwide, tree or shrub dominated woodlands have encroached into herbaceous dominated grasslands. While very few studies have evaluated the impact of Eastern Redcedar (redcedar) encroachment on the water budget, none have analyzed the impact on water quality. In this study, we evaluated the impact of redcedar encroachment on the water budget in the Nebraska Sand Hills and how the decreased streamflow would increase nitrate and atrazine concentrations in the Platte River. We calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) for streamflow, recharge, and evapotranspiration. Using a moving window with a dilate morphological filter, encroachment scenarios of 11.9 %, 16.1 %, 28.0 %, 40.6 %, 57.5 %, 72.5 % and 100 % were developed and simulated by the calibrated model. At 11.9 % and 100 % encroachment, streamflow was reduced by 4.6 % and 45.5 %, respectively in the Upper Middle Loup River, a tributary to the Platte River. Percolation and deep aquifer recharge increased by 27 % and 26 % at 100 % encroachment. Streamflow in the Platte River, a major water source for Omaha and Lincoln, would decrease by 2.6 %, 5.5 % and 10.5 % for 28 %, 57.5 %, and 100 % encroachment of the Loup River watershed, respectively. This reduction in streamflow could increase nitrate and atrazine concentrations in the Platte River by 4 to 15 % and 4 to 30 %, respectively. While the density of redcedar is minimal, it is important to manage their encroachment to prevent reductions in streamflow and potential increases in pollutant concentrations.

Modeling susceptibility to forest fires in the Central Corridor of the Atlantic Forest using the frequency ratio method

Fire is one of the main disturbances of tropical forests. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fires is of fundamental importance for the conservation of tropical forests. We used a frequency ratio model to identify those areas most susceptible to forest fires in the Central Corridor of the Atlantic Forest, from 2001 to 2019. We used data from the burned area of MODIS MCD64A1 to create the dependent variable grouped as climatic, topographic and human and landscape variables. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the model's performance. Land use and relief orientation were the most and least important variables in the model, respectively. The model showed good AUC values, ranging from 0.72 to 0.96, with an average of 0.81 for the study period. The average distribution of susceptibility classes was low (19.62 %), medium (24.45 %) and high (20.55 %). The northwestern region of the CAFC was the one that presented the greatest susceptibility to the occurrence of forest fires. The frequency ratio proved to be a good model for mapping areas susceptible to forest fires in an area of the Atlantic Forest.

Woody Plant Encroachment and the Sustainability of Priority Conservation Areas

Woody encroachment is a global driver of grassland loss and management to counteract encroachment represents one of the most expensive conservation practices implemented in grasslands. Yet, outcomes of these practices are often unknown at large scales and this constrains practitioner’s ability to advance conservation. Here, we use new monitoring data to evaluate outcomes of grassland conservation on woody encroachment for Nebraska’s State Wildlife Action Plan, a statewide effort that targets management in Biologically Unique Landscapes (BULs) to conserve the state’s natural communities. We tracked woody cover trajectories for BULs and compared BUL trajectories with those in non-priority landscapes (non-BULs) to evaluate statewide and BUL-scale conservation outcomes more than a decade after BUL establishment. Statewide, woody cover increased by 256,653 ha (2.3%) from 2000–2017. Most BULs (71%) experienced unsustainable trends of grassland loss to woody encroachment; however, management appeared to significantly reduce BUL encroachment rates compared to non-BULs. Most BULs with early signs of encroachment lacked control strategies, while only one BUL with moderate levels of encroachment (Loess Canyons) showed evidence of a management-driven stabilization of encroachment. These results identify strategic opportunities for proactive management in grassland conservation and demonstrate how new monitoring technology can support large-scale adaptive management pursuits.

Classifying Large Wildfires in the United States by Land Cover

Fire is an ecological process that also has socio-economic effects. To learn more about fire occurrence, I examined relationships between land classes and about 12,000 spatially delineated large wildfires (defined here as uncontrolled fires ≥200 ha, although definitions vary) during 1999 to 2017 in the conterminous United States. Using random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and c5.0 classifiers, I modeled all fires, first years (1999 to 2002), last years (2014 to 2017), the eastern, central, and western United States and seven ecoregions. The three classifiers performed well (true positive rates 0.82 to 0.94) at modeling all fires and fires by year, region, and ecoregion. The random forests classifier did not predict to other time intervals or regions as well as other classifiers and models were not constant in time and space. For example, the eastern region overpredicted fires in the western region and models for the western region underpredicted fires in the eastern region. Overall, greater abundance of herbaceous grasslands, or herbaceous wetlands in the eastern region, and evergreen forest and low abundance of crops and pasture characterized most large fires, even with regional differences. The 14 states in the northeastern United States with no or few large fires contained limited herbaceous area and abundant crops or developed lands. Herbaceous vegetation was the most important variable for fire occurrences in the western region. Lack of crops was most important for fires in the central region and a lack of pasture, crops, and developed open space was most important for fires in the eastern region. A combination of wildlands vegetation was most influential for most ecoregions, although herbaceous vegetation alone and lack of pasture, crops, and developed open space also were influential. Despite departure from historical fire regimes, these models demonstrated that herbaceous vegetation remains necessary for fires and that evergreen forests in particular are fire-prone, while reduction of vegetation surrounding housing developments will help provide a buffer to reduce large fires.

Liability and the Use of Prescribed Fire in the Southern Plains, USA: A Survey of District Court Judges

Suppression of historical fire regimes has changed the composition and structure of many fire-dependent ecosystems, frequently resulting in decreased grazing productivity and biodiversity in grasslands and savannas. Land managers have attempted to reverse these trends through the application of prescribed fire, but regulations and liability concerns often deter them. District court judges play a key role in defining the legal context of prescribed burning by interpreting applicable statutes in personal injury or property damage cases resulting from escaped prescribed fire. However, information about the way judges interpret open burning statutes and regulations is difficult to obtain. We conducted a mail survey of district court judges in Texas and Oklahoma, USA to shed light on decisions judges might make presiding over an escaped fire case. The survey included questions regarding their perception of prescribed fire, their understanding of the laws affecting prescribed burning, and hypothetical questions to determine how they would apply relevant law in an escaped fire case. We found that judges cited fewer factors as evidence of gross negligence than simple negligence. This suggests that a shift toward a gross negligence liability standard for escaped prescribed fire cases might result in fewer findings of prescribed burner liability.