Long-Term Variations of Plasmaspheric Total Electron Content from Topside GPS Observations on LEO Satellites

An Approach for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Using Machine Learning

Accurate corrections for ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and early warning information are crucial for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) applications under the influence of space weather. In this study, we propose to use a new machine learning model—the Prophet model, to predict the global ionospheric TEC by establishing a short-term ionospheric prediction model. We use 15th-order spherical harmonic coefficients provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) as the training data set. Historical spherical harmonic coefficient data from 7 days, 15 days, and 30 days are used as the training set to model and predict 256 spherical harmonic coefficients. We use the predicted coefficients to generate a global ionospheric TEC forecast map based on the spherical harmonic function model and select a year with low solar activity (63.4 < F10.7 < 81.8) and a year with the high solar activity (79.5 < F10.7 < 255.0) to carry out a sliding 2-day forecast experiment. Meanwhile, we verify the model performance by comparing the forecasting results with the CODE forecast product (COPG) and final product (CODG). The results show that we obtain the best predictions by using 15 days of historical data as the training set. Compared with the results of CODE’S 1-Day (C1PG) and CODE’S 2-Day (C2PG). The number of days with RMSE better than COPG on the first and second day of the low-solar-activity year is 151 and 158 days, respectively. This statistic for high-solar-activity year is 183 days and 135 days.

Low-Latitude Ionospheric Responses and Coupling to the February 2014 Multiphase Geomagnetic Storm from GNSS, Magnetometers, and Space Weather Data

The ionospheric response and the associated mechanisms to geomagnetic storms are very complex, particularly during the February 2014 multiphase geomagnetic storm. In this paper, the low-latitude ionosphere responses and their coupling mechanisms, during the February 2014 multiphase geomagnetic storm, are investigated from ground-based magnetometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS), and space weather data. The residual disturbances between the total electron content (TEC) of the International GNSS Service (IGS) global ionospheric maps (GIMs) and empirical models are used to investigate the storm-time ionospheric responses. Three clear sudden storm commencements (SSCs) on 15, 20, and 23 February are detected, and one high speed solar wind (HSSW) event on 19 February is found with the absence of classical SSC features due to a prevalent magnetospheric convection. The IRI-2012 shows insufficient performance, with no distinction between the events and overestimating approximately 20 TEC units (TECU) with respect to the actual quiet-time TEC. Furthermore, the median average of the IGS GIMs TEC during February 2014 shows enhanced values in the southern hemisphere, whereas the IRI-2012 lacks this asymmetry. Three low-latitude profiles extracted from the IGS GIM data revealed up to 20 TECU enhancements in the differential TEC. From these profiles, longer-lasting TEC enhancements are observed at the dip equator profiles than in the profiles of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) crests. Moreover, a gradual increase in the global electron content (GEC) shows approximately 1 GEC unit of differential intensification starting from the HSSW event, while the IGS GIM profiles lack this increasing gradient, probably located at higher latitudes. The prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and equatorial electrojet (EEJ) indices estimated from magnetometer data show strong variability after all four events, except the EEJ’s Asian sector. The low-latitude ionosphere coupling is mainly driven by the variable PPEF, DDEF (disturbance dynamo electric fields), and Joule heating. The auroral electrojet causing eastward PPEF may control the EIA expansion in the Asian sector through the dynamo mechanism, which is also reflected in the solar-quiet current intensity variability.

Undifferenced Kinematic Precise Orbit Determination of Swarm and GRACE-FO Satellites from GNSS Observations

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites can be used for remote sensing and gravity field recovery, while precise orbit determination (POD) is vital for LEO satellite applications. However, there are some systematic errors when using the LEO satellite orbits released by different agencies in multi-satellite-based applications, e.g., Swarm and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Follow-On (GRACE-FO), as different GNSS precise orbit and clock products are used as well as processing strategies and software. In this paper, we performed undifferenced kinematic PODs for Swarm and GRACE-FO satellites simultaneously over a total of 14 days by using consistent International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service (IGS) precise orbit and clock products. The processing strategy based on an undifferenced ionosphere-free combination and a least squares method was applied for Swarm and GRACE-FO satellites. Furthermore, the quality control for the kinematic orbits was adopted to mitigate abrupt position offsets. Moreover, the accuracy of the kinematic orbits solution was evaluated by carrier phase residual analysis and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations, as well as comparison with official orbits. The results show that the kinematic orbits solution is better than 4 cm, according to the SLR validation. With quality control, the accuracy of the kinematic orbit solution is improved by 2.49 % for the Swarm-C satellite and 6.98 % for the GRACE-D satellite when compared with their precise orbits. By analyzing the accuracy of the undifferenced kinematic orbit solution, the reliability of the LEO orbit determination is presented in terms of processing strategies and quality control procedures.