Improved Hydrological Loading Models in South America: Analysis of GPS Displacements Using M-SSA

Noise Analysis and Combination of Hydrology Loading-Induced Displacements

Large uncertainties exist in the available hydrology loading prediction models, and currently no consensus is reached on which loading model is superior or appears to represent nature in a more satisfactory way. This study discusses the noise characterization and combination of the vertical loadings predicted by different hydrology reanalysis (e.g., MERRA, GLDAS/Noah, GEOS-FPIT, and ERA interim). We focused on the hydrology loading predictions in the time span from 2011 to 2014 for the 70 Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, which are located close to the great rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. The maximum likelihood estimate with Akaike information criteria (AIC) showed that the auto-regressive (AR) model with an order from 2 to 5 is a good description of the temporal correlation that exists in the hydrology loading predictions. Moreover, significant discrepancy exists in the root mean square (RMS) of different hydrology loading predictions, and none of them have the lowest noise level for the all-time domain. Principal component analysis (PCA) was therefore used to create a combined loading-induced time series. Statistical indices (e.g., mean overlapping Hadamard variance, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and variance reduction) showed that our proposed algorithm had an overall good performance and seemed to be potentially feasible for performing corrections on geodetic GPS heights.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Environmental Loading Effects on Vertical GPS Time Series in Yunnan, Southwest China

Seasonal variations in the vertical Global Positioning System (GPS) time series are mainly caused by environmental loading, e.g., hydrological loading (HYDL), atmospheric loading (ATML), and nontidal oceanic loading (NTOL), which can be synthesized based on models developed by various institutions. A comprehensive comparison among these models is essential to extract reliable vertical deformation data, especially on a regional scale. In this study, we selected 4 HYDL, 5 ATML, 2 NTOL, and their 40 combined products to investigate their effects on seasonal variations in vertical GPS time series at 27 GPS stations in Yunnan, southwest China. These products were provided by the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), School and Observatory of Earth Sciences (EOST), and International Mass Loading Service (IMLS). Furthermore, we used the Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) method to analyze the relative phase relationship between the GPS and the environmental loading time series. Our result showed that the largest average Root-Mean-Square (RMS) reduction value was 1.32 mm after removing the deformation associated with 4 HYDL from the vertical GPS time series, whereas the RMS reductions after 5 ATML and 2 NTOL model corrections were negative at most stations in Yunnan. The average RMS reduction value of the optimal combination of environmental loading products was 1.24 mm, which was worse than the HYDL (IMLS_GEOSFPIT)-only correction, indicating that HYDL was the main factor responding for seasonal variations at most stations in Yunnan. The XWT result showed that HYDL also explained the annual variations reasonably. Our finding implies that HYDL (IMLS_GEOSFPIT) contributes the most to the environmental loading in Yunnan, and that the ATML and NTOL models used in this paper cannot be effective to correct seasonal variations.

Evaluating Groundwater Storage Change and Recharge Using GRACE Data: A Case Study of Aquifers in Niger, West Africa

Accurately assessing groundwater storage changes in Niger is critical for long-term water resource management but is difficult due to sparse field data. We present a study of groundwater storage changes and recharge in Southern Niger, computed using data from NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. We compute a groundwater storage anomaly estimate by subtracting the surface water anomaly provided by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model from the GRACE total water storage anomaly. We use a statistical model to fill gaps in the GRACE data. We analyze the time period from 2002 to 2021, which corresponds to the life span of the GRACE mission, and show that there is little change in groundwater storage from 2002–2010, but a steep rise in storage from 2010–2021, which can partially be explained by a period of increased precipitation. We use the Water Table Fluctuation method to estimate recharge rates over this period and compare these values with previous estimates. We show that for the time range analyzed, groundwater resources in Niger are not being overutilized and could be further developed for beneficial use. Our estimated recharge rates compare favorably to previous estimates and provide managers with the data required to understand how much additional water could be extracted in a sustainable manner.

Analysis of GNSS Displacements in Europe and Their Comparison with Hydrological Loading Models

Thanks to the increasing number of permanent GNSS stations in Europe and their long records, we computed position solutions for more than 1000 stations over the last two decades using the REPRO3 orbit and clock products from the IGS CNES-CLS (GRGS) Analysis Center. The velocities, which are mainly due to tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and the annual solar cycle have been estimated using weighted least squares. The interannual variations have been accounted for in the stochastic model or in the deterministic model. We demonstrated that the velocity and annual cycle, in addition to their uncertainties, depend on the estimation method we used and that the estimation of GPS draconitic oscillations minimises biases in the estimation of annual solar cycle displacements. The annual solar cycle extracted from GPS has been compared with that from loading estimates of several hydrological models. If the annual amplitudes between GPS and hydrological models match, the phases of the loading models were typically in advance of about 1 month compared to GPS. Predictions of displacements modelled from GRACE observations did not show this phase shift. We also found important discrepancies at the interannual frequency band between GNSS, loading estimates derived from GRACE, and hydrological models using principal component analysis (PCA) decomposition. These discrepancies revealed that GNSS position variations in the interannual band cannot be systematically interpreted as a geophysical signal and should instead be interpreted in terms of autocorrelated noise.