A Framework for Prediction of Household Energy Consumption Using Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network

Complex artificial intelligence models for energy sustainability in educational buildings

Energy consumption of constructed educational facilities significantly impacts economic, social and environment sustainable development. It contributes to approximately 37% of the carbon dioxide emissions associated with energy use and procedures. This paper aims to introduce a study that investigates several artificial intelligence-based models to predict the energy consumption of the most important educational buildings; schools. These models include decision trees, K-nearest neighbors, gradient boosting, and long-term memory networks. The research also investigates the relationship between the input parameters and the yearly energy usage of educational buildings. It has been discovered that the school sizes and AC capacities are the most impact variable associated with higher energy consumption. While 'Type of School' is less direct or weaker correlation with 'Annual Consumption'. The four developed models were evaluated and compared in training and testing stages. The Decision Tree model demonstrates strong performance on the training data with an average prediction error of about 3.58%. The K-Nearest Neighbors model has significantly higher errors, with RMSE on training data as high as 38,429.4, which may be indicative of overfitting. In contrast, Gradient Boosting can almost perfectly predict the variations within the training dataset. The performance metrics suggest that some models manage this variability better than others, with Gradient Boosting and LSTM standing out in terms of their ability to handle diverse data ranges, from the minimum consumption of approximately 99,274.95 to the maximum of 683,191.8. This research underscores the importance of sustainable educational buildings not only as physical learning spaces but also as dynamic environments that contribute to informal educational processes. Sustainable buildings serve as real-world examples of environmental stewardship, teaching students about energy efficiency and sustainability through their design and operation. By incorporating advanced AI-driven tools to optimize energy consumption, educational facilities can become interactive learning hubs that encourage students to engage with concepts of sustainability in their everyday surroundings.

CBLSTM-AE: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Energy Consumption

Multisource energy data, including from distributed energy resources and its multivariate nature, necessitate the integration of robust data predictive frameworks to minimise prediction error. This work presents a hybrid deep learning framework to accurately predict the energy consumption of different building types, both commercial and domestic, spanning different countries, including Canada and the UK. Specifically, we propose architectures comprising convolutional neural network (CNN), an autoencoder (AE) with bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM BLSTM). The CNN layer extracts important features from the dataset and the AE-BLSTM and LSTM layers are used for prediction. We use the individual household electric power consumption dataset from the University of California, Irvine to compare the skillfulness of the proposed framework to the state-of-the-art frameworks. Results show performance improvement in computation time of 56% and 75.2%, and mean squared error (MSE) of 80% and 98.7% in comparison with a CNN BLSTM-based framework (EECP-CBL) and vanilla LSTM, respectively. In addition, we use various datasets from Canada and the UK to further validate the generalisation ability of the proposed framework to underfitting and overfitting, which was tested on real consumers’ smart boxes. The results show that the framework generalises well to varying data and constraints, giving an average MSE of ∼0.09 across all datasets, demonstrating its robustness to different building types, locations, weather, and load distributions.

Academic Topics Related to Household Energy Consumption Using the Future Sign Detection Technique

With the emergence of new technologies and policies to transition to clean energy, the household energy consumption sector is also changing. In response to policy, environmental, and technical changes, researchers need to find out what significant issues are related to household energy consumption, and comprehensively analyze which issues are likely to attract attention in the future to contribute to research in the household sector. Based on the abstracts of academic papers published between 2011 and 2020, this study uses probabilistic topic modeling to increase understanding of academic issues in the household energy consumption sector and statistically reviews changes in issues over time. As a result of the analysis, topics related to digitalization and renewable energy, such as microgrid system, smart home, residential solar power generation systems, and non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM), belonging to Strong signals, are being actively studied. Weak Signals, which can attract attention in the future, are included in discussions on coal energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, energy poverty, and energy performance evaluation. The analysis results show that carbon neutrality, such as decarbonization and fossil energy consumption reduction, is expanding to research in the household energy consumption sector.

An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings

Due to the availability of smart metering infrastructure, high-resolution electric consumption data is readily available to study the dynamics of residential electric consumption at finely resolved spatial and temporal scales. Analyzing the electric consumption data enables the policymakers and building owners to understand consumer’s demand-consumption behaviors. Furthermore, analysis and accurate forecasting of electric consumption are substantial for consumer involvement in time-of-use tariffs, critical peak pricing, and consumer-specific demand response initiatives. Alongside its vast economic and sustainability implications, such as energy wastage and decarbonization of the energy sector, accurate consumption forecasting facilitates power system planning and stable grid operations. Energy consumption forecasting is an active research area; despite the abundance of devised models, electric consumption forecasting in residential buildings remains challenging due to high occupant energy use behavior variability. Hence the search for an appropriate model for accurate electric consumption forecasting is ever continuing. To this aim, this paper presents a spatial and temporal ensemble forecasting model for short-term electric consumption forecasting. The proposed work involves exploring electric consumption profiles at the apartment level through cluster analysis based on the k-means algorithm. The ensemble forecasting model consists of two deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory Unit (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). First, the apartment-level historical electric consumption data is clustered. Later the clusters are aggregated based on consumption profiles of consumers. At the building and floor level, the ensemble models are trained using aggregated electric consumption data. The proposed ensemble model forecasts the electric consumption at three spatial scales apartment, building, and floor level for hourly, daily, and weekly forecasting horizon. Furthermore, the impact of spatial-temporal granularity and cluster analysis on the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The dataset used in this study comprises high-resolution electric consumption data acquired through smart meters recorded on an hourly basis over the period of one year. The consumption data belongs to four multifamily residential buildings situated in an urban area of South Korea. To prove the effectiveness of our proposed forecasting model, we compared our model with widely known machine learning models and deep learning variants. The results achieved by our proposed ensemble scheme verify that model has learned the sequential behavior of electric consumption by producing superior performance with the lowest MAPE of 4.182 and 4.54 at building and floor level prediction, respectively. The experimental findings suggest that the model has efficiently captured the dynamic electric consumption characteristics to exploit ensemble model diversities and achieved lower forecasting error. The proposed ensemble forecasting scheme is well suited for predictive modeling and short-term load forecasting.

Machine Learning Modeling for Energy Consumption of Residential and Commercial Sectors

Energy has a strategic role in the economic and social development of countries. In the last few decades, energy demand has been increasing exponentially across the world, and predicting energy demand has become one of the main concerns in many countries. The residential and commercial sectors constitute about 34.7% of global energy consumption. Anticipating energy demand in these sectors will help governments to supply energy sources and to develop their sustainable energy plans such as using renewable and non-renewable energy potentials for the development of a secure and environmentally friendly energy system. Modeling energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors enables identification of the influential economic, social, and technological factors, resulting in a secure level of energy supply. In this paper, we forecast residential and commercial energy demands in Iran using three different machine learning methods, including multiple linear regression, logarithmic multiple linear regression methods, and nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input artificial neural networks. These models are developed based on several factors, including the share of renewable energy sources in final energy consumption, gross domestic production, population, natural gas price, and the electricity price. According to the results of the three machine learning methods applied in our study, by 2040, Iranian residential and commercial energy consumption will be 76.97, 96.42 and 128.09 Mtoe, respectively. Results show that Iran must develop and implement new policies to increase the share of renewable energy supply in final energy consumption.

Smart Buildings: Systems and Drivers

Since the 1980s, smart buildings have aroused the interest of researchers. However, there is still no consensus on what the intelligence of a building is, and what enhances that intelligence. The purpose of this paper is to identify and correlate the main drivers and systems of smart buildings, by associating them with the main beneficiaries: users, owners, and the environment. To identify the main drivers and systems of these buildings, we carried out a comprehensive, detailed, and interpretative literature search. From the selected articles, we sorted the information, extracted the main concepts and knowledge, and, finally, identified the set of potential drivers and systems. Results showed eleven drivers and eight systems, and these can be enhanced by more than one driver. By analyzing the main beneficiaries, we grouped the drivers into three categories: users, owners, and the environment. Given the lack of consensus on the key drivers that make buildings smarter, this article contributes to filling this gap by identifying them, together with the key systems. It is also relevant for detecting the relationships between drivers and systems, and pointing out which drivers have the greatest potential to affect a particular system, keeping in mind the main beneficiary.

A Novel Selection Approach for Genetic Algorithms for Global Optimization of Multimodal Continuous Functions

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are stochastic-based heuristic search techniques that incorporate three primary operators: selection, crossover, and mutation. These operators are supportive in obtaining the optimal solution for constrained optimization problems. Each operator has its own benefits, but selection of chromosomes is one of the most essential operators for optimal performance of the algorithms. In this paper, an improved genetic algorithm-based novel selection scheme, i.e., stairwise selection (SWS) is presented to handle the problems of exploration (population diversity) and exploitation (selection pressure). For its global performance, we compared with several other selection schemes by using ten well-known benchmark functions under various dimensions. For a close comparison, we also examined the significance of SWS based on the statistical results. Chi-square goodness of fit test is also used to evaluate the overall performance of the selection process, i.e., mean difference between observed and expected number of offspring. Hence, the overall empirical results along with graphical representation endorse that the SWS outperformed in terms of robustness, stability, and effectiveness other competitors through authentication of performance index (PI).

Evaluation of Sequence-Learning Models for Large-Commercial-Building Load Forecasting

Buildings play a critical role in the stability and resilience of modern smart grids, leading to a refocusing of large-scale energy-management strategies from the supply side to the consumer side. When buildings integrate local renewable-energy generation in the form of renewable-energy resources, they become prosumers, and this adds more complexity to the operation of interconnected complex energy systems. A class of methods of modelling the energy-consumption patterns of the building have recently emerged as black-box input–output approaches with the ability to capture underlying consumption trends. These make use and require large quantities of quality data produced by nondeterministic processes underlying energy consumption. We present an application of a class of neural networks, namely, deep-learning techniques for time-series sequence modelling, with the goal of accurate and reliable building energy-load forecasting. Recurrent Neural Network implementation uses Long Short-Term Memory layers in increasing density of nodes to quantify prediction accuracy. The case study is illustrated on four university buildings from temperate climates over one year of operation using a reference benchmarking dataset that allows replicable results. The obtained results are discussed in terms of accuracy metrics and computational and network architecture aspects, and are considered suitable for further use in future in situ energy management at the building and neighborhood levels.