Persistence of Schistosomiasis-Related Morbidity in Northeast Brazil: An Integrated Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Intestinal schistosomiasis-related mortality in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2000-2019: Temporal trends and spatial patterns for determining priority areas

OBJECTIVE

To identify priority areas for schistosomiasis control, we analysed the epidemiological characteristics, temporal trends and spatial patterns of schistosomiasis-related mortality in the state of Minas Gerais from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

Ecological and time-series study with spatial analysis techniques on deaths from Schistosomiasis mansoni. A log-linear regression model was used to identify changes in mortality rates. Moran's global index, local indicators of spatial association and a retrospective spatio-temporal permutation model were applied to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality rates and assist in identifying priority areas for interventions.

RESULTS

A total of 1290 deaths from schistosomiasis were recorded between 2000 and 2019, with an average mortality rate of 0.33 deaths/100,000. Although the overall mortality rate in the state of Minas Gerais decreased significantly over time (average annual percentage change = -9.6; 95% confidence interval = -14.4 to -4.6; p < 0.001), it increased in the mesoregions of Jequitinhonha, Mucuri Valley, and Rio Doce Valley. Spatial analysis identified the displacement and emergence of high-risk clusters from the central region of the state to the mesoregion of Rio Doce Valley.

CONCLUSION

Temporal changes and shifting of high-risk areas from the central region to the mesoregion of Rio Doce Valley may indicate possible failures in early diagnosis and treatment of the schistosomiasis control program in these areas. Our research contributes to a better understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of death rates due to schistosomiasis infections and might help health authorities to direct resources most efficiently to avoid serious clinical outcomes in Minas Gerais.

Mining Public Opinions on COVID-19 Vaccination: A Temporal Analysis to Support Combating Misinformation

This article presents a study that applied opinion analysis about COVID-19 immunization in Brazil. An initial set of 143,615 tweets was collected containing 49,477 pro- and 44,643 anti-vaccination and 49,495 neutral posts. Supervised classifiers (multinomial naïve Bayes, logistic regression, linear support vector machines, random forests, adaptative boosting, and multilayer perceptron) were tested, and multinomial naïve Bayes, which had the best trade-off between overfitting and correctness, was selected to classify a second set containing 221,884 unclassified tweets. A timeline with the classified tweets was constructed, helping to identify dates with peaks in each polarity and search for events that may have caused the peaks, providing methodological assistance in combating sources of misinformation linked to the spread of anti-vaccination opinion.

Spatial distribution of the positivity of Schistosomiasis mansoni in Maranhao State, Northeastern Brazil, from 2007 to 2016

Schistosomiasis is considered one of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), which affects around 240 million people worldwide. In Brazil, Schistosomiasis mansoni has been registered in 19 states, predominantly in rural areas. This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of Schistosomiasis mansoni cases in the Maranhao State from 2007 to 2016, as well as the temporal trend over this period. The data were obtained from secondary sources: Schistosomiasis Control Program of Maranhao (PCE-MA) and Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The State Health Regions (HRs) were considered analysis units. Maranhao had a positivity rate of 3.8 for the period. The Regions that presented the highest percentages of positivity in the state were Pinheiro (7.92), Ze Doca (3.30), and Viana (3.10). Municipalities such as Bacuri, Serrano do Maranhao, and Bequimao, located in the Pinheiro HR, showed positivity rates of 16.56, 13.31, and 11.01 respectively. The spatial analysis of schistosomiasis cases showed that Maranhao has two main centers for the spread of the disease, both located in the northern portion of the state, namely the Baixada Maranhense and the east coast. This study concluded that the positivity of Schistosomiasis mansoni in Maranhao was stable over the analyzed period. The state still maintains the Baixada Maranhense micro-region as an important area for the spread of the disease reaching socially vulnerable population groups.

High schistosomiasis-related mortality in Northeast Brazil: trends and spatial patterns

Background:

We analyzed the trends and spatial patterns of schistosomiasis-related mortality in Northeast Brazil in 2000-2019.

Methods:

A mixed population-based ecological study was conducted, using information on the underlying or associated causes of death. We used Joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the trends. The spatial analysis included rates, spatial moving averages, and standardized mortality rates. The spatial dependence analysis was based on Getis-Ord's G and Gi* indices (Gi star) and local Moran’s index to check for autocorrelation.

Results:

A total of 5,814,268 deaths were recorded, of which 9,276 (0.16%) were schistosomiasis-related; 51.0% (n=4,732, adjusted rate 0.90/100,000 inhabitants [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.93]) were males; 40.0% (n=3,715, adjusted rate 7.40/100.000 inhabitants [95%CI: 7.16-7.64]) were ≥70 years old; 54.8% (n=5,087, crude rate 0.80/100,000 inhabitants) were of mixed/Pardo-Brazilian ethnicity; and 77.9% (n=7,229, adjusted rate 0.86/100,000 inhabitants [95%CI: 0.84-0.88]) lived outside state capitals. The highest proportion of deaths was in the state of Pernambuco (53.9%, n=4,996, adjusted rate 2.72/100,000 inhabitants [95%CI: 2.64-2.79]). Increasing mortality rate was verified in the state of Sergipe. On the coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia, there was spatial dependence of spatio-temporal risk patterns with clusters. Throughout the study period, we found positive spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation.

Conclusions:

In Northeast Brazil, schistosomiasis persists with a high mortality rate, especially in the coastal region, with heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns. To eliminate schistosomiasis by 2030, it is necessary to strengthen the financing and management of the unified health system (SUS).