Hints for a Gravitational Transition in Tully–Fisher Data

Is the Hubble Crisis Connected with the Extinction of Dinosaurs?

It has recently been suggested that a gravitational transition of the effective Newton’s constant Geff by about 10%, 50–150 Myrs ago could lead to the resolution of both the Hubble crisis and the growth tension of the standard ΛCDM model. Hints for such an abrupt transition with weaker gravity at times before the transition, have recently been identified in Tully–Fisher galactic mass-velocity data, and also in Cepheid SnIa calibrator data. Here we use Monte-Carlo simulations to show that such a transition could significantly increase (by a factor of 3 or more) the number of long period comets (LPCs) impacting the solar system from the Oort cloud (semi-major axis of orbits ≳104AU). This increase is consistent with observational evidence from the terrestrial and lunar cratering rates, indicating that the impact flux of kilometer sized objects increased by at least a factor of 2 over that last 100 Myrs compared to the long term average. This increase may also be connected with the Chicxulub impactor event that produced the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K-T) extinction of 75% of life on Earth (including dinosaurs) about 66 Myrs ago. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to show that for isotropic Oort cloud comet distribution with initially circular orbits, random velocity perturbations (induced e.g., by passing stars and/or galactic tidal effects), lead to a deformation of the orbits that increases significantly when Geff increases. A 10% increase in Geff leads to an increase in the probability of the comets to enter the loss cone and reach the planetary region (pericenter of less than 10 AU) by a factor that ranges from 5% (for velocity perturbation much smaller than the comet initial velocity) to more than 300% (for total velocity perturbations comparable with the initial comet velocity).

On the Evolution of the Hubble Constant with the SNe Ia Pantheon Sample and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations: A Feasibility Study for GRB-Cosmology in 2030

The difference from 4 to 6 σ in the Hubble constant (H0) between the values observed with the local (Cepheids and Supernovae Ia, SNe Ia) and the high-z probes (Cosmic Microwave Background obtained by the Planck data) still challenges the astrophysics and cosmology community. Previous analysis has shown that there is an evolution in the Hubble constant that scales as f(z)=H0/(1+z)η, where H0 is H0(z=0) and η is the evolutionary parameter. Here, we investigate if this evolution still holds by using the SNe Ia gathered in the Pantheon sample and the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations. We assume H0=70kms−1Mpc−1 as the local value and divide the Pantheon into three bins ordered in increasing values of redshift. Similar to our previous analysis but varying two cosmological parameters contemporaneously (H0, Ω0m in the ΛCDM model and H0, wa in the w0waCDM model), for each bin we implement a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis (MCMC) obtaining the value of H0 assuming Gaussian priors to restrict the parameters spaces to values we expect from our prior knowledge of the current cosmological models and to avoid phantom Dark Energy models with w<−1. Subsequently, the values of H0 are fitted with the model f(z). Our results show that a decreasing trend with η∼10−2 is still visible in this sample. The η coefficient reaches zero in 2.0 σ for the ΛCDM model up to 5.8 σ for w0waCDM model. This trend, if not due to statistical fluctuations, could be explained through a hidden astrophysical bias, such as the effect of stretch evolution, or it requires new theoretical models, a possible proposition is the modified gravity theories, f(R). This analysis is meant to further cast light on the evolution of H0 and it does not specifically focus on constraining the other parameters. This work is also a preparatory to understand how the combined probes still show an evolution of the H0 by redshift and what is the current status of simulations on GRB cosmology to obtain the uncertainties on the Ω0m comparable with the ones achieved through SNe Ia.