Do Land Use Changes Balance out Sediment Yields under Climate Change Predictions on the Sub-Basin Scale? The Carpathian Basin as an Example

Estimation of nutrient loads with the use of mass-balance and modelling approaches on the Wełna River catchment example (central Poland)

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgeting is considered to be a key tool for policy makers and stakeholders when dealing with nutrient contamination issues, however no unified method has been employed in countries affected by this eutrophication problem. The current study offers a detailed insight into the estimations of nutrient loads and their distribution between different sources for a middle-sized agricultural catchment, with the use of two approaches: mass balance (static) and modelling (dynamic). Both methods revealed similar contributions of analysed nutrient sources, although the final estimates in the chosen calculation profile were divergent due to the various reasons related to the methods’ specificity. The advantages and disadvantages of both approaches have been specified in our study, and a hybrid solution on a local and country wide scale has been proposed.

Expanding the Sediment Transport Tracking Possibilities in a River Basin through the Development of a Digital Platform—DNS/SWAT

Simulation of stochastic and variable sediment transport processes within models still poses a big challenge, especially in mountainous areas. Since sediment transport, including erosion and deposition, remains an unceasing problem in many areas, sediment modeling is perceived as a possible solution. This article combines a review of the selected sediment models with a presentation of the effects of several years of research using the DNS digital platform in the Western Carpathians. The review focuses on the main advantages and gaps in selected modeling tools with particular emphasis on one of the most popular: SWAT. The description of the digital platform—DNS is an example of how to answer these gaps by combining subsequent models, methods, and databases using their best features. To accentuate the benefits of such an approach, the effects of combining subsequent models (AdH/PTM) and methods (fingerprinting) on a common digital DNS space are presented, on the example of the Raba River (basin). In this way, both unique possibilities of estimating the amount of contamination carried with sediment particles and their sources, as well as sequencing of sedimentation in the reservoir, taking into account its subsequent zones, were obtained.

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios

Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space-time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll "a" for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65, and high chlorophyll "a" concentrations in the lower part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.

Applicability of modified SWAT model (SWAT-Twn) on simulation of watershed sediment yields under different land use/cover scenarios in Taiwan

Climate change leads to increasing intensity and frequency of extreme rainfalls, especially in Taiwan with steep slopes and rapid currents. Heavy rainfalls trigger serious erosion and landslides on hillslopes, which increase sand concentration in rivers, and thus affect the water quality of reservoirs and the ecohydrological functions of rivers. We take the Zhuoshui River basin as an example and applied the modified Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, SWAT-Twn, to simulate sediment in the basin. In SWAT-Twn, estimation of sediment yield is carried out by integrating the Taiwan Universal Soil Loss Equation (TUSLE) and the landslide simulation. Results of daily streamflow simulation showed that the model performances were above the satisfactory level, while simulations of daily sediment loads showed that the SWAT-Twn model performed better than the official SWAT (SWAT664), in terms of PBIAS of - 46.6 to 16.0% (SWAT-Twn) and - 1.2 to - 107.0% (SWAT664). Two scenarios of land use/cover, scenario 1 with fixed land use/cover and scenario 2 with updated land use/cover in each year, were applied to simulate annual sediment in the river basin for investigating the effects of landslide area variation on sediments. Results of sediment simulation under the two scenarios showed that although updating landslide area may facilitate sediment yield simulation at the subbasin level, the sediment transport equation, Bagnold equation, does not reflect the variation in sediment loads in the watershed. With further modifications, SWAT-Twn is expected to be an effective tool for simulating the impacts of landslide on sediment loads in the watersheds with rainfall-induced landslide.

Climate change impacts on contaminant loads delivered with sediment yields from different land use types in a Carpathian basin

Soil runoff and sediment transport are considered as an important vector for particle-bound contaminant transfer from source to receiving waters. Under changing climate conditions and rapid basin development, identification of sediment origins is critical for planning further action to reduce erosion effects, and further pollution to surface waters. The goal of this study was to distinguish sediment sources in a Carpathian basin (Wolnica River, southern Poland) and to perform source-oriented contaminant load estimations. Sediment yields (SYLD) and land use specific sediment yields (LUSY) were modeled with the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge-Nutrients-Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Sorting of sediment sources was performed by the fingerprinting method using variability of the geochemical composition of soils (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Fe, Hg, total N and P, Σ16 PAHs, and 137Cs) of four land use (LU) types: arable lands (A), grasslands (G), residential areas (R), and forests (F). Statistical analysis revealed six metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Hg) as fingerprint properties providing the best source discrimination in this basin. The contribution of particular land use origin assessed with the use of the mixing model varied in the range of 20-30%. Finally, estimation of land use specific contaminant loads in suspended sediments was performed as a result of a modeling and sediment fingerprinting combination. The final estimates revealed yearly LUSY values varying between 716 t/y for A, 12 t/y for F, and metal loads from 31 kg/y for Zn to values below 100 g/y for Cd and Hg. Long-term predictions (2046-2055) of the metal loads revealed an increase by 75% under the combined RCP 8.5 climate change and land use scenarios. These findings are of great value for land management in the Carpathian basins, especially with regards to the predicted increase of forest cover which significantly alters contaminant signals conveyed through the system.

A macromodel dns/swat dataset for the sediment yield analysis in the raba river basin (Carpathian mts.)

A database has been created as a result of the Raba River basin (Carpathian Mts., Poland) mapping/projection in the Macromodel DNS/SWAT. The sediment yield simulations (SYLD) in each of the 36 designated sub-basins have been performed, taking also into account seasonal variability. The model subsequently has been used as a reference/baseline for subsequent variant scenarios, simulating forecasted changes in the environment. The generated data ultimately allowed for creation of the current dataset. The impact of 20 variant scenarios, simulating forecasted climate and land use changes, on the sediment yield values was analyzed. The applied scenarios took into account various possibilities, from hypothetical ones, where only one parameter has been changed, to combined ones, which included simultaneous change of selected parameters. Short-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) time horizons have also been included in this analysis. Sediment yield values and their variability, depending on the season, can be successfully used as reference values for the other mountain and sub-mountainous catchments, both in the Carpathian Mts., and throughout central Europe. Due to the permanent lack of monitoring data on the sediment yields, not only in Poland, the presented database is a valuable source of information. Moreover, spatial and temporal predictions of sediment yield changes are necessary to decide on actions which should be taken to reduce impact of climate changes at the basin scale. This data can be also used as a basis for further research related to the transport of pollutants adsorbed on sediment particles.