Effects of climate change on tularaemia disease activity in Sweden

Multisectoral Perspectives on Global Warming and Vector-borne Diseases: a Focus on Southern Europe

Purpose of Review

The climate change (CC) or global warming (GW) modifies environment that favors vectors' abundance, growth, and reproduction, and consequently, the rate of development of pathogens within the vectors. This review highlights the threats of GW-induced vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in Southern Europe (SE) and the need for mitigation efforts to prevent potential global health catastrophe.

Recent Findings

Reports showed astronomical surges in the incidences of CC-induced VBDs in the SE. The recently (2022) reported first cases of African swine fever in Northern Italy and West Nile fever in SE are linked to the CC-modified environmental conditions that support vectors and pathogens' growth and development, and disease transmission.

Summary

VBDs endemic to the tropics are increasingly becoming a major health challenge in the SE, a temperate region, due to the favorable environmental conditions caused by CC/GW that support vectors and pathogens' biology in the previously non-endemic temperate regions.

Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

Development of Immunoassays for Detection of Francisella tularensis Lipopolysaccharide in Tularemia Patient Samples

Francisella tularensis is the causative agent of tularemia, a zoonotic bacterial infection that is often fatal if not diagnosed and treated promptly. Natural infection in humans is relatively rare, yet persistence in animal reservoirs, arthropod vectors, and water sources combined with a low level of clinical recognition make tularemia a serious potential threat to public health in endemic areas. F. tularensis has also garnered attention as a potential bioterror threat, as widespread dissemination could have devastating consequences on a population. A low infectious dose combined with a wide range of symptoms and a short incubation period makes timely diagnosis of tularemia difficult. Current diagnostic techniques include bacterial culture of patient samples, PCR and serological assays; however, these techniques are time consuming and require technical expertise that may not be available at the point of care. In the event of an outbreak or exposure a more efficient diagnostic platform is needed. The lipopolysaccharide (LPS) component of the bacterial outer leaflet has been identified previously by our group as a potential diagnostic target. For this study, a library of ten monoclonal antibodies specific to F. tularensis LPS were produced and confirmed to be reactive with LPS from type A and type B strains. Antibody pairs were tested in an antigen-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and lateral flow immunoassay format to select the most sensitive pairings. The antigen-capture ELISA was then used to detect and quantify LPS in serum samples from tularemia patients for the first time to determine the viability of this molecule as a diagnostic target. In parallel, prototype lateral flow immunoassays were developed, and reactivity was assessed, demonstrating the potential utility of this assay as a rapid point-of-care test for diagnosis of tularemia.

Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden

Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm⁻²), medium (4.5 Wm⁻²), and high (8.5 Wm⁻²) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively.

Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions

Hydroclimatic changes may be particularly pronounced in high-latitude regions and can influence infectious diseases, jeopardizing regional human and animal health. In this study, we consider the example of tularemia, one of the most studied diseases in high-latitude regions, which is likely to be impacted by large regional hydroclimatic changes. For this disease case, we use a validated statistical model and develop a method for quantifying possible hydroclimatically driven shifts in outbreak conditions. The results show high sensitivity of tularemia outbreaks to certain combinations of hydroclimatic variable values. These values are within the range of past regional observations and may represent just mildly shifted conditions from current hydroclimatic averages. The methodology developed also facilitates relatively simple identification of possible critical hydroclimatic thresholds, beyond which unacceptable endemic disease levels may be reached. These results call for further research on how projected hydroclimatic changes may affect future outbreaks of tularemia and other infectious diseases in high-latitude and other world regions, with particular focus on critical thresholds to high-risk conditions. More research is also needed on the generality and spatiotemporal transferability of statistical disease models.

A case of ulceroglandular tularemia presenting with lymphadenopathy and an ulcer on a linear morphoea lesion surrounded by erysipelas

Tularemia is a zoonosis caused by the infection of Francisella tularensis (a gram-negative aerobic bacterium). Transmission to other animals or humans usually occurs through insect or tick bites, direct contact with a contaminated environment (mud or water), infected animals - mainly lagomorphs - or by ingesting undercooked meat or inhaling contaminated dust (hay or soil). This paper discusses the case of a 32-year-old man, who came to our Emergency Room presenting with persistent fever, inguinal lymphadenopathy, and an ulcer on his left lower limb on a linear morphoea lesion that had been there for some time. The lesion was surrounded by erysipelas. After hospitalization and tests, the patient was diagnosed with ulceroglandular tularemia. Antibiotic treatment with doxycycline resolved the clinical picture, but not the morphoea lesion.

RECENT CHANGES IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN EUROPEAN WILDLIFE

Many infectious diseases originating from, or carried by, wildlife affect wildlife conservation and biodiversity, livestock health, or human health. We provide an update on changes in the epidemiology of 25 selected infectious, wildlife-related diseases in Europe (from 2010-16) that had an impact, or may have a future impact, on the health of wildlife, livestock, and humans. These pathogens were selected based on their: 1) identification in recent Europe-wide projects as important surveillance targets, 2) inclusion in European Union legislation as pathogens requiring obligatory surveillance, 3) presence in recent literature on wildlife-related diseases in Europe since 2010, 4) inclusion in key pathogen lists released by the Office International des Epizooties, 5) identification in conference presentations and informal discussions on a group email list by a European network of wildlife disease scientists from the European Wildlife Disease Association, or 6) identification as pathogens with changes in their epidemiology during 2010-16. The wildlife pathogens or diseases included in this review are: avian influenza virus, seal influenza virus, lagoviruses, rabies virus, bat lyssaviruses, filoviruses, canine distemper virus, morbilliviruses in aquatic mammals, bluetongue virus, West Nile virus, hantaviruses, Schmallenberg virus, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, African swine fever virus, amphibian ranavirus, hepatitis E virus, bovine tuberculosis ( Mycobacterium bovis), tularemia ( Francisella tularensis), brucellosis ( Brucella spp.), salmonellosis ( Salmonella spp.), Coxiella burnetii, chytridiomycosis, Echinococcus multilocularis, Leishmania infantum, and chronic wasting disease. Further work is needed to identify all of the key drivers of disease change and emergence, as they appear to be influencing the incidence and spread of these pathogens in Europe. We present a summary of these recent changes during 2010-16 to discuss possible commonalities and drivers of disease change and to identify directions for future work on wildlife-related diseases in Europe. Many of the pathogens are entering Europe from other continents while others are expanding their ranges inside and beyond Europe. Surveillance for these wildlife-related diseases at a continental scale is therefore important for planet-wide assessment, awareness of, and preparedness for the risks they may pose to wildlife, domestic animal, and human health.

Tularemia-induced erythema multiforme minor in an 11-year-old girl

Tularemia is a rare and potentially life-threatening infection caused by the highly infectious gram-negative coccobacillus Francisella tularensis. We present the case of an 11-year old girl who presented with erythema multiforme minor in the setting of an indolent but progressive soft tissue infection and was found to have tularemia. We review the role of dermatologists in identifying the features of and complications associated with this rare zoonosis and discuss the potential effect of climate change on its incidence.

Adaptation in Arctic circumpolar communities: food and water security in a changing climate

The AMAP Human Health Assessment Group has developed different adaptation strategies through a long-term collaboration with all Arctic countries. Different adaptation strategies are discussed, with examples mainly from native population groups in Alaska.

An overview: tularemia and travel medicine

Tularemia is a bacterial zoonotic infection. The disease is endemic in most parts of the world, has been reported through the northern hemisphere between 30 and 71° N latitude. Francisella tularensis causes infection in a wide range of vertebrates (rodents, lagomorphs) and invertebrates (ticks, mosquitoes and other arthropods). Humans can acquire this infection through several routes including; a bite from an infected tick, deerfly or mosquito, contact with an infected animal or its dead body. It can also be spread to human by drinking contaminated water or breathing contaminated dirt or aerosol. Clinical manifestation of this disease varies depending on the biotype, inoculum and port of entry. Infection is potentially life threatening, but can effectively be treated with antibiotics. Travelers visiting rural and agricultural areas in endemic countries may be at greater risk. Appropriate clothing and use of insect repellants is essential to prevent tick borne illness. Travelers also should be aware of food and waterborne disease; avoid consuming potentially contaminated water and uncooked meat. Physicians should be aware of any clinical presentation of tularemia in the patients returning from endemic areas.

Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

Tularemia in the Southeastern Swiss Alps at 1,700 m above sea level

A 37-year-old man presented with a 4-day history of nonbloody diarrhea, fever, chills, productive cough, vomiting, and more recent sore throat. He worked for the municipality in a village in the Swiss Alps near St. Moritz. Examination showed fever (40 °C), hypotension, tachycardia, tachypnea, decreased oxygen saturation (90 % at room air), and bibasilar crackles and wheezing. Chest radiography and computed tomography scan showed an infiltrate in the left upper lung lobe. He responded to empiric therapy with imipenem for 5 days. After the imipenem was stopped, the bacteriology laboratory reported that 2/2 blood cultures showed growth of Francisella tularensis. He had recurrence of fever and diarrhea. He was treated with ciprofloxacin (500 mg twice daily, oral, for 14 days) and symptoms resolved. Further testing confirmed that the isolate was F. tularensis (subspecies holarctica) belonging to the subclade B.FTNF002-00 (Western European cluster). This case may alert physicians that tularemia may occur in high-altitude regions such as the Swiss Alps.

Epidemiology of tularemia

Tularemia is considered to have existed in Anatolia for several thousand years. There are suspicions regarding its use in biological warfare in the Neshite-Arzawan conflict. The causative agent of tularemia may have first been used as a biological weapon in 1320-1318 BC. The disease has recently become a significant re-emerging disease globally as well as in Turkey. In the period of 2001-2010, Kosovo had the highest annual incidence in Europe at a rate of 5.2 per 100,000. Sweden, Finland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Norway, Serbia-Montenegro, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croatia follow with rates of 2.80, 1.19, 1.0, 0.81, 0.42, 0.4, 0.36, 0.21, and 0.15 per 100,000 people, respectively. Tularemia in Turkey was first reported in the soldiers living in the region very close to the Kaynarca Stream of Thrace in 1936. It has started to gain more and more importance, especially in recent decades in Turkey, due to a very high number of cases and its spread throughout the country. A total of 431 tularemia cases were recorded in Turkey in 2005, but a significant reduction was observed in the number of the cases in the next three years; the number of patients decreased to 71 in 2008. The number of cases increased again in 2009 and continued in subsequent years. The number of cases reached 428, 1531, 2151, and 607 in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. The number of cases peaked in 2011 in Turkey, and was in fact higher than the total number of cases in all European Union countries. The number of cases is higher in females than males in Turkey. In Turkey, 52% of cases of tularemia diagnoses occur from December to March and the most common clinical presentation is the oropharyngeal form caused by contaminated water. Rodents are the most likely sources of tularemia outbreaks in Turkey as well as in Kosovo. Organisms such as ticks, flies and mosquitoes are vectors of tularemia transmission to mammals. Because ticks can carry the bacteria by both transovarial and transstadial transmission, they play a role in the life cycle of tularemia as both reservoir and vector.

Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe

Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management.

Identification and subtyping of Francisella by pyrosequencing and signature matching of 16S rDNA fragments

AIMS

To analyse the V1 region of the 16S rDNA gene by a universal pyrosequencing protocol to identify and subtype Francisella in 31 strains from a repository collection and 96 patient isolates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Pyrosequencing was used to determine the nucleotide sequence of PCR amplification products of the variable region (V1) of the 16S rDNA from 31 repository strains and 96 isolates from Swedish patients with ulceroglandular tularaemia. Pyrosequencing resulted in a 37 nucleotide sequence, specific for Francisella sp., for all repository strains and patient samples analysed. In addition, the isolates could be divided into two groups based on the analysis of a single nucleotide polymorphism in the sequence: one group included Francisella tularensis ssp. tularensis, ssp. holarctica and ssp. mediasiatica, whereas the other group included Francisella tularensis ssp. novicida and other species of Francisella. The analysis of samples taken from patients suffering from ulceroglandular tularaemia revealed that all isolates belonged to the first group comprising subspecies of F. tularensis virulent for humans.

CONCLUSIONS

The pyrosequencing analysis of the 16S rDNA V1 is a useful molecular tool for the rapid identification of suspected isolates of Francisella sp. in clinical or environmental samples.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

Virulent F. tularensis ssp. causing ulceroglandular tularaemia, or those with a potential to be used in a bioterrorism event, could rapidly be discriminated from subspecies less virulent for humans.