Relevance of the type III error in epidemiological maps.
Int J Health Geogr 2012;
11:34. [PMID:
22900943 PMCID:
PMC3492026 DOI:
10.1186/1476-072x-11-34]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2012] [Accepted: 07/02/2012] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background
A type III error arises from a two-sided test, when one side is erroneously favoured although the true effect actually resides on the other side. The relevance of this grave error in decision-making is studied for epidemiological maps.
Results
Theoretical considerations confirm that a type III error may be large for regions with small numbers of expected cases even when no spatial smoothing has been performed. A simulation study based on infant mortality data in Austria reveals that spatial smoothing may additionally increase the risk of type III errors.
Conclusions
The occurrence of a type III error should be taken into account when interpreting results presented in epidemiological maps, particularly with regard to sparsely populated regions and spatial smoothing.
Collapse