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Kumar R, Kumar A, Kumar S. Sepsis in liver failure patients: Diagnostic challenges and recent advancements. World J Crit Care Med 2025; 14:101587. [DOI: 10.5492/wjccm.v14.i2.101587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2024] [Revised: 01/19/2025] [Accepted: 02/12/2025] [Indexed: 02/27/2025] Open
Abstract
Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic LF (ACLF) are prevalent hepatic emergencies characterized by an increased susceptibility to bacterial infections (BI), despite significant systemic inflammation. Literature indicates that 30%–80% of ALF patients and 55%–81% of ACLF patients develop BI, attributed to immunological dysregulation. Bacterial sepsis in these patients is associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. Early detection of bacterial sepsis is critical; however, distinguishing between sterile systemic inflammation and sepsis poses a significant challenge due to the overlapping clinical presentations of LF and sepsis. Conventional sepsis biomarkers, such as procalcitonin and C-reactive protein, have shown limited utility in LF patients due to inconsistent results. In contrast, novel biomarkers like presepsin and sTREM-1 have demonstrated promising discriminatory performance in this population, pending further validation. Moreover, emerging research highlights the potential of machine learning-based approaches to enhance sepsis detection and characterization. Although preliminary findings are encouraging, further studies are necessary to validate these results across diverse patient cohorts, including those with LF. This article provides a comprehensive review of the magnitude, impact, and diagnostic challenges associated with BI in LF patients, focusing on novel advancements in early sepsis detection and characterization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramesh Kumar
- Department of Gastroenterology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna 801507, Bihar, India
| | - Abhishek Kumar
- Department of Gastroenterology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna 801507, Bihar, India
| | - Sudhir Kumar
- Department of Gastroenterology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna 801507, Bihar, India
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Hernaez R, Li H, Moreau R, Coenraad MJ. Definition, diagnosis and epidemiology of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Liver Int 2025; 45:e15670. [PMID: 37424175 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/11/2023]
Abstract
This narrative review addresses the definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease and/or cirrhosis. We provide two major points of view: the East and the West perspective. Both definitions vary regarding the underlying patient population and organ failure(s) definition. Nevertheless, all the definitions have their clinical utility: from the core concept of having the "liver" as a conditio sine qua non, the syndrome cannot exist (Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver); a data-driven, robust definition (European Association for the Study of the Liver); a bedside tool that can quickly identify patients at high risk of dying (North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease [NACSELD]). In each section, we provide the overall definitions, the criteria of organ failure(s), and some epidemiological data illustrating how these apply in each area of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruben Hernaez
- Section of Gastroenterology, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, TX Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Hai Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Richard Moreau
- European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF CLIF), Barcelona, France
- INSERM, Université de Paris Cité, Centre de Recherche sur l'Inflammation (CRI), Service d'Hépatologie, Paris, France
- Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP), and Hôpital Beaujon, Clichy, France
| | - Minneke J Coenraad
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
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Mensi A, Zmerli R, Bel Hadj Mabrouk E, Zaimi Y, Said Y, Debbeche R. Profil diagnostique et évolutif de l’insuffisance hépatique aigue sur
chronique. LA TUNISIE MEDICALE 2025; 103:86-92. [PMID: 39812199 PMCID: PMC11906235 DOI: 10.62438/tunismed.v103i1.5035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2024] [Accepted: 10/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2025]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Acute decompensation represents a remarkable event in cirrhotic patients, particularly if it is complicated by Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF). Epidemiological data of ACLF are limited. AIM To determine the prevalence and predictive factors of ACLF in patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS We conducted a retrospective study. We included patients with decompensated cirrhosis. ACLF was defined according to the CLIF-C OF score. Prevalence and predictive factors of ACLF were determined. RESULTS We included 100 patients. The prevalence of ACLF was 37%. Renal failure was the most frequent organ failure. In univariate analysis, predictive factors for the occurrence of ACLF were female gender, hepatic encephalopathy, upper digestive haemorrhage, the presence of an infection, CRP level, bilirubin level and creatinine level. Prognostic scores (Child-Pugh, MELD, and CLIF-C OF) were also predictive of ACLF. In multivariate analysis, only creatinine level was an independent predictive factor of ACLF. The most frequent precipitating factor of ACLF was infection. The overall mortality rate for patients with ACLF was 65%. CONCLUSION Our study showed that the prevalence of ACLF was 37 %. The main predictive factor of ACLF was creatinine level. The mortality rate was high at 65 %.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asma Mensi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Rayhan Zmerli
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Emna Bel Hadj Mabrouk
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Yosra Zaimi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Yosra Said
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Radhouene Debbeche
- Department of Gastroenterology, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis-Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
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Xu Z, Zhang X, Chen J, Shi Y, Ji S. Bacterial Infections in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: Epidemiology, Diagnosis, Pathogenesis, and Management. J Clin Transl Hepatol 2024; 12:667-676. [PMID: 38993512 PMCID: PMC11233977 DOI: 10.14218/jcth.2024.00137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2024] [Revised: 05/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct condition characterized by the abrupt exacerbation of pre-existing chronic liver disease, often leading to multi-organ failures and significant short-term mortalities. Bacterial infection is one of the most frequent triggers for ACLF and a common complication following its onset. The impact of bacterial infections on the clinical course and outcome of ACLF underscores their critical role in the pathogenesis of systemic inflammation and organ failures. In addition, the evolving epidemiology and increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria in cirrhosis and ACLF highlight the importance of appropriate empirical antibiotic use, as well as accurate and prompt microbiological diagnosis. This review provided an update on recent advances in the epidemiology, diagnosis, pathogenesis, and management of bacterial infections in ACLF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaoyu Xu
- China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Xiuding Zhang
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jiyang Chen
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yu Shi
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Shangwei Ji
- Department of Infectious Diseases, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
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Chinese consensus on the management of liver cirrhosis. J Dig Dis 2024; 25:332-352. [PMID: 39044465 DOI: 10.1111/1751-2980.13294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2024] [Revised: 05/19/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/25/2024]
Abstract
Liver cirrhosis, characterized by diffuse necrosis, insufficient regeneration of hepatocytes, angiogenesis, severe fibrosis, and the formation of pseudolobules, is a progressive, chronic liver disease induced by a variety of causes. It is clinically characterized by liver function damage and portal hypertension, and many complications may occur in its late stage. Based on the updated practice guidelines, expert consensuses, and research advances on the diagnosis and treatment of cirrhosis, the Chinese Society of Gastroenterology of Chinese Medical Association established the current consensus to standardize the clinical diagnosis and management of liver cirrhosis and guide clinical practice. This consensus contains 43 statements on the etiology, pathology and pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, major complications, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and chronic disease control of liver cirrhosis. Since several practice guidelines and expert consensuses on the complications of liver cirrhosis have been published, this consensus emphasizes the research progress of liver cirrhosis itself.
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Torre A, Cisneros-Garza LE, Castillo-Barradas M, Navarro-Alvarez N, Sandoval-Salas R, González-Huezo MS, Pérez-Hernández JL, Méndez-Guerrero O, Ruiz-Manríquez JA, Trejo-Estrada R, Chavez-Tapia NC, Solís-Gasca LC, Moctezuma-Velázquez C, Aguirre-Valádez J, Flores-Calderón J, Higuera-de-la-Tijera F, García-Juárez I, Canedo-Castillo NA, Malé-Velázquez R, Montalvo-Gordon I, Vilatobá M, Márquez-Guillén E, Córdova-Gallardo J, Flores-García NC, Miranda-Zazueta G, Martínez-Saldívar BI, Páez-Zayas VM, Muñoz-Espinosa LE, Solís-Galindo FA. Consensus document on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) established by the Mexican Association of Hepatology. Ann Hepatol 2023; 28:101140. [PMID: 37482299 DOI: 10.1016/j.aohep.2023.101140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 05/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 07/25/2023]
Abstract
Acute-on chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been an intensively debated topic mainly due to the lack of a unified definition and diagnostic criteria. The growing number of publications describing the mechanisms of ACLF development, the progression of the disease, outcomes and treatment has contributed to a better understanding of the disease, however, it has also sparked the debate about this condition. As an attempt to provide medical professionals with a more uniform definition that could be applied to our population, the first Mexican consensus was performed by a panel of experts in the area of hepatology in Mexico. We used the most relevant and impactful publications along with the clinical and research experience of the consensus participants. The consensus was led by 4 coordinators who provided the most relevant bibliography by doing an exhaustive search on the topic. The entire bibliography was made available to the members of the consensus for consultation at any time during the process and six working groups were formed to develop the following sections: 1.- Generalities, definitions, and criteria, 2.- Pathophysiology of cirrhosis, 3.- Genetics in ACLF, 4.- Clinical manifestations, 5.- Liver transplantation in ACLF, 6.- Other treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aldo Torre
- Metabolic Unit, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
| | - Laura Esthela Cisneros-Garza
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department, Hospital Christus Muguerza Alta Especialidad, Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico
| | | | - Nalu Navarro-Alvarez
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Osvely Méndez-Guerrero
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Luis Carlos Solís-Gasca
- Gastroenterology Department, Hospital General de Zona #12 Benito Juárez del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Carlos Moctezuma-Velázquez
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Medicine - Division of Gastroenterology (Liver Unit), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | | | - Judith Flores-Calderón
- Pediatrics Department, Hospital de Pediatría, Centro Médico Nacional Siglo XXI, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Ignacio García-Juárez
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | - Iaarah Montalvo-Gordon
- Clinic of Gastrointestinal and Hepatic Specialties, Hospital Faro del Mayab, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Mario Vilatobá
- Transplant Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Ernesto Márquez-Guillén
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico; Hospital Ángeles del Pedregal, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Jacqueline Córdova-Gallardo
- Hepatology Department - General Surgery Service, Hospital General Dr. Manuel Gea González, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Nayeli Cointa Flores-García
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Godolfino Miranda-Zazueta
- Gastroenterology Department, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | - Linda Elsa Muñoz-Espinosa
- Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital 'Dr. José E. González', Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico
| | - Francisco Alfonso Solís-Galindo
- Gastroenterology Department, Unidad Médica de Alta Especialidad # 71 Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Torreón, Coahuila, Mexico
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Zeng G, Pang Y, Zheng J, Zhuo C, Guo Y, Liang J, Li X, Lei Z, Zhu J, Xu L, Gao Z, Zhuo C, Liu J. Colonization with Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Contributes to Unfavorable Outcomes in End-Stage Liver Disease Patients. Antibiotics (Basel) 2022; 11:1667. [PMID: 36421311 PMCID: PMC9686982 DOI: 10.3390/antibiotics11111667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are the highest priority pathogens of the World Health Organization, and their prevalence in end-stage liver disease (ESLD) patients is increasing. CRE colonization is an independent risk factor for CRE infections. We aimed to assess risk factors and explore the relationship between CRE colonization, infection, and prognosis in patients with ESLD. A total of 311 patients with ESLD were screened for CRE colonization by fecal swabs from October 2020 to January 2022. Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested using the broth microdilution method. Carbapenem resistance genes, multilocus sequence type, and capsular serotype were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Seventeen CRE strains were detected, among which the most common was Klebsiella pneumoniae. The CRE colonization rate was 5.5%. Artificial liver support was an independent risk factor for CRE colonization. Compared to the non-CRE colonization group, the colonization group had a higher incidence of CRE infection and a worse prognosis. Furthermore, these strains were not closely related, and all were sensitive to polymyxin and tigecycline. There was a high colonization rate in ESLD patients, and colonization strains were highly diverse. CRE colonization deserves attention in these patients, especially when treated with artificial liver support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guofen Zeng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Affiliated Kashi Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Kashi 844000, China
| | - Yihua Pang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Jiaxin Zheng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Chuyue Zhuo
- Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510030, China
| | - Yingyi Guo
- Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510030, China
| | - Jiayin Liang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Xiaojie Li
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Ziying Lei
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Jianyun Zhu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Lejia Xu
- Department of Pharmacy, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Zhiliang Gao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
| | - Chao Zhuo
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
- Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510030, China
| | - Jing Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China
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Bacterial Infections Confer a Risk of Progression to Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Patients with HBV-Related Compensated Cirrhosis During Severe Hepatitis Flares. Infect Dis Ther 2022; 11:1839-1851. [PMID: 36151452 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-022-00695-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The aims of this study were to investigate the risk factors for bacterial infections (BIs) and the association of BIs with the progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated liver cirrhosis and severe hepatitis flares. METHODS A total of 237 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Baseline biochemical characteristics were compared between patients with and without the occurrence of BIs and progression to ACLF. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for ACLF before and after 1:1 propensity score matching. RESULTS Forty-eight (20.3%) patients progressed to ACLF after admission. Additionally, 136 (57.4%) patients progressed to hepatic decompensation (HD) and 52 (21.9%) patients had BIs before the development of ACLF. Patients with BIs had significantly higher incidences of HD (84.6%) and ACLF (46.2%) than those without BIs (49.7% and 13.0%, respectively; P < 0.01). CTP score (OR 1.660, 95% CI 1.267-2.175) and MELD-Na score (OR 1.082, 95% CI 1.010-1.160) were independent risk factors for BIs. BIs (OR 4.037, 95% CI 1.808-9.061), CLIF-SOFA score (OR 2.007, 95% CI 1.497-2.691), and the MELD-Na score (OR 1.167, 95% CI 1.073-1.260) were independent risk factors for the progression to ACLF. BIs (OR 4.730, 95% CI 1.520-14.718) were also an independent risk factor for the progression to ACLF after propensity score matching. CONCLUSION High CTP and MELD-Na scores are risk factors for BIs, and BIs are risk factors for the progression to ACLF in patients with HBV-related compensated liver cirrhosis and severe hepatitis flares.
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Zhang Z, Yang Z, Cheng Q, Hu X, Liu M, Liu Y, Liu T, Ma K, Zhang M, Luo X, Chen T, Ning Q. Establishment and validation of a prognostic model for hepatitis B virus‑related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with bacterial infection. Hepatol Int 2021; 16:38-47. [PMID: 34855105 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-021-10268-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Bacterial infection is one of the most frequent complications in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which leads to high mortality. However, a specific prognostic model for ACLF patients with bacterial infection has not been well established. AIM To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality of hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients with bacterial infection. METHODS A total of 513 ACLF patients for HBV reactivation were enrolled in the prospective cohort, and 224 patients with bacterial infection were for derivation. Independent predictors were identified using multivariate logistic model and then assembled into a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination and clinical utility in a retrospective cohort of 192 HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection. RESULTS Age, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, international normalized ratio and soluble interleukin-2 receptor were shown to be independent risk factors for 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection and the nomogram was constructed. The nomogram showed a good calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort also showed a good calibration and discrimination, with the AUC of 0.852. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION The nomogram was established and validated for predicting 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection, which may facilitate optimal therapeutic strategies to improve the prognosis of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhongwei Zhang
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhongyuan Yang
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiuyu Cheng
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Xue Hu
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Meiqi Liu
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Yunhui Liu
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Tingting Liu
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Ke Ma
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Meng Zhang
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaoping Luo
- Department of Pediatrics, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Tao Chen
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China.
| | - Qin Ning
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1095, Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, People's Republic of China.
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The Use of NACSELD and EASL-CLIF Classification Systems of ACLF in the Prediction of Prognosis in Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis. Am J Gastroenterol 2020; 115:2026-2035. [PMID: 32858565 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000000771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) consortium and the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) as an acute deterioration of cirrhosis with multiple organ failures and high short-term mortality. However, their diagnostic criteria differ. We aimed to compare these 2 criteria in the prediction of prognosis in hospitalized cirrhosis. METHODS This was a prospective study of nonelectively hospitalized patients with cirrhosis (N = 468) from a single tertiary hospital between 2016 and 2018. Baseline characteristics, incidence, and types of organ failure and survival data at 7, 28, and 90 days were collected. Prognostic utilities of the 2 criteria were compared. RESULTS One hundred thirty-seven of 468 patients (29.3%) had EASL-CLIF ACLF, and 35 of 468 (7.4%) had NACSELD ACLF. The 28-day transplant-free survival of ACLF was 58.4% using EASL-CLIF and 37.1% using the NACSELD criteria. In predicting 28-day mortality, the NACSELD criteria demonstrated significantly higher overall accuracy (92.0% vs 85.3%, P < 0.01), specificity (99.7% vs 84.0%, P < 0.001), and positive predictive value (97.1% vs 50.4%, P < 0.001) but lower sensitivity (49.3% vs 92.5%, P < 0.001) and negative predictive value (91.6% vs 98.5%, P < 0.001) than those of EASL-CLIF. The results were similar in predicting 7-day outcome. However, the overall accuracy became similar between NACSELD and EASL-CLIF ACLF criteria in predicting 90-day mortality (86.3% vs 88.7%, P = 0.27) because of the decrease of sensitivity and negative predictive value of NACSELD ACLF criteria. The prognostic performance of these 2 ACLF criteria was similar when applied to patients with or without hepatitis B virus infection as an etiology of cirrhosis. DISCUSSION There are both caveats and utilities of NACSELD and EASL-CLIF ACLF criteria in prognosis prediction in patients with cirrhosis. NACSED criteria is highly accurate in predicting morality, whereas the EASL-CLIF criteria is more sensitive to identify patients who would benefit from liver transplantation.
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