Validation of the PAGE-B score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients on treatment

Long-Term Survival and Curative-Intent Treatment in Hepatitis B or C Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Diagnosed during Screening

Background: We initiated a prospective screening trial in patients with hepatitis to diagnose HCC in the early stage and to evaluate the impact on long-term survival. Methods: From 1993−2006, 10,372 patients with chronic hepatitis B (14%), hepatitis C (81%), or both (5%) were enrolled in an HCC screening program. All patients underwent liver biopsy at enrollment. Transabdominal ultrasonography and serum alpha-fetoprotein were evaluated every 6 months. Abnormal screening results led to axial imaging and tumor biopsy. Results: Cirrhosis was confirmed on biopsy in 2074 patients (20%). HCC was diagnosed in 1016 patients (9.8%), all of whom had cirrhosis (49.0% HCC incidence in patients with cirrhosis). HCC was diagnosed at the initial screening in 165 patients (16.2%) and on follow-up in 851 patients (83.8%). The HCC diagnosis median time during follow-up screening was 6 years (range 4−10). Curative-intent treatment (resection, ablation, or transplant) was performed in 713 patients (70.2%). Overall survival at 5 and 10 years in those 713 patients was 30% and 4%, respectively, compared to no 5-year survivors in the 303 patients with advanced-stage disease (p < 0.001). Cause of death at 5 years in the 713 patients treated with curative intent was HCC in 371 patients (52%), progressive cirrhosis in 116 patients (16%), and other causes in 14 patients (2%). At 10 years, 456 patients (64%) had died from HCC, 171 (24%) from progressive cirrhosis, and 57 (8%) from other causes. Conclusions: Our screening program diagnosed early-stage HCC, permitting curative-intent treatment in 70%, but the 10-year survival rate is 4% due to HCC recurrence and progressive cirrhosis.