[HCV and Treponema pallidum infection status in HIV/AIDS cases in Yunnan province, January-June, 2020]

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool to Identify People at Greater Risk of Having Hepatitis C among Drug Users

BACKGROUND

People who use drugs (PWUD) are among those with the highest risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents offer an opportunity to eliminate HCV. A simple tool for the prediction of HCV infection risk in PWUD is urgently needed. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction tool to identify people at greater risk of having hepatitis C among PWUD that is applicable in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

We extracted data from national HIV/AIDS sentinel surveillance in PWUD (Zhejiang Province, 2016-2021) and developed and validated a risk score to improve HCV testing in PWUD. This risk score consists of seven risk factors identified using multivariable logistic regression modeling (2016-2020, exploratory group). We validated this score using surveillance data for 2021 (validation group). The accuracy of the model was determined using C-statistics.

RESULTS

We identified seven risk factors, including sex, age, marital status, educational attainment, and the use of heroin, morphine, and methamphetamine. In the exploratory group, the positive rates of detecting the HCV antibody in the low-risk (0-9 points), intermediate-risk (10-16 points), and high-risk (≥17 points) groups were 6.72%, 17.24%, and 38.02%, respectively (P_trend < 0.001). In the validation group, the positive rates in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 4.46%, 12.23%, and 38.99%, respectively (P_trend < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a drug-specific risk prediction tool for identifying PWUD at increased risk of HCV infection. This tool can complement and integrate the screening strategy for the purpose of early diagnosis and treatment.

Feasibility of Hepatitis C Elimination in China: From Epidemiology, Natural History, and Intervention Perspectives

Hepatitis C imposes a heavy burden on many countries, including China, where the number of reported cases and the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) increased yearly from 2005 to 2012, with a stable trend after 2012. The geographical distribution of HCV infections varies widely in China, with the northwest and southwest regions and the Henan Province showing a high disease burden. Elderly, men, sexually active people, drug users, migrants, blood transfusion recipients, and renal dialysis patients have become the target populations for hepatitis C prevention and control. It is important to improve the diagnosis rate in high-risk groups and asymptomatic people. Identifying secondary HCV infections, especially in HCV patients co-infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a priority of hepatitis C prevention and control. Enhancing universal access to direct antiviral agents (DAAs) treatment regimens is an effective way to improve the cure rate of HCV infection. For China to contribute to the WHO 2030 global HCV elimination plan, strategic surveillance, management, and treatment program for HCV are needed.