[Analysis of mortality and probability of premature death caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Shandong Province, 2015]

Age- and Gender-Specific Differences in the Seasonal Distribution of Diabetes Mortality in Shandong, China: A Spatial Analysis

Diabetes mortality in Shandong is higher than the national average in China. This study first explored diabetes mortality variation spatially at the county/district level among adults aged over 30 years in terms of age and gender, specifically by season. Daily diabetes mortality data were collected from 31 mortality surveillance points across Shandong Province in 2014. A geographic information system, spatial kriging interpolation and a spatial clustering method were used to examine the spatial patterns of diabetes mortality at the county/district level by season. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using diabetes mortality data from 10 mortality surveillance points from 2011 to 2020. As a result, the total diabetes mortality in eastern counties/districts was the highest (relative risk (RR) of cluster: 1.58, p = 0.00) across the whole province. For subgroups, women had higher mortality (16.84/100,000) than men (12.15/100,000), people aged over 75 years were the most vulnerable (93.91/100,000) and the highest-risk season was winter. However, the mortality differences between winter and summer were smaller in eastern and coastal regions than in other regions for all gender- and age-specific groups. The findings provide further evidence for early warning and precision preventative strategies for diabetes mortality in different regions of Shandong Province. Future research is required to identify the risk factors for diabetes and understand the differences in the social and environmental contexts.

Current status of premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4: a population-based study in northeast China, 2004-2017

Background and aim

According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China.

Methods

We calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model.

Findings

In the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: − 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: − 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: − 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: − 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation.

Conclusion

Except for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.